IFL - who's got the goss?

[macduffy]

IFL's bad press saw me quit these on Monday. Thought for a while that I'd been a bit hasty but the downtrend has continued as the accusations flow!

The end of an era - as far as I'm concerned - dating back through IOOF and Aust Wealth Mgt to Tower Aust!

http://www.theage.com.au/business/ba...24-ghwpct.html

[Arbitrage]

As a small shareholder one wonders how to predict this sort of thing. http://www.smh.com.au/business/banki...0150626-ghwkvq

[macduffy]

As a small shareholder one wonders how to predict this sort of thing. http://www.smh.com.au/business/banki...0150626-ghwkvq

The short answer is - you can't. When it happens it's best to leave it to others.

[Joshuatree]

Time to go against the crowd



From CLSA's analyst:


"The structural issues are old hat, revel in the “learning”

This analyst is a huge Adele Ferguson fan: her excoriation of the industry has, in the main, been correct and timely . . . her latest broadside misses, in our opinion, the mark (by a mile). We believe the advice industry is in the process of transforming itself, where the pained wailing of most practitioners is an indication that various reforms are both biting and hurting - this is good for the consumer and investors. By hook or crook (frankly, it’s irrelevant), IOOF is well positioned. Upgrade a notch to BUY.


Ours is not some vapid, myopic, self-interested industry response!
We have previously described IOOF’s strategy as ‘the lazy man’s quick fix - investors beware’, have admitted to being ‘all-round confused’ and (prophetically?) wrote: ‘never really “got” IOOF: to us it looked like another roll-up, another acquisition-led growth strategy which, over time, would stall and the true “cost” of those purchases/mergers would emerge’. This time, however, it’s different: while still something of an ugly duckling, looking ahead we see quality, rigour and potential. We have here a stormy teacup.


Culture: It’s the heart of any company
However, culture, in the main, doesn’t develop overnight, and neither does it in a vacuum - it develops around a strategic vision which, in our opinion, has recently coalesced: less vertical integration and more an advice-led platform. For more detail, read our 30 March 2015 Rainbows are visions... note. We believe the recent disposal of part of Perennial is an indication of this.


Risks, there are a few, but, then again, too few to mention . . .
IOOF has confirmed that it has followed its protocols around these sorts of issues: where deemed appropriate the Australian Securities and Investments Commission has been notified. The bigger impact is reputational - we believe this is the catalyst for IOOF to up the ante. We would like the company to outline what its “recovery plan” looks like. After all, it’s not about how you find yourself on the floor, it’s about how you get up. Could this “event” prove to be IOOF’s “quality” moment?


Valuation
Advice is central to IOOF. Its focus on delivering efficient, low-cost products to clients is beginning to get reflected in the strongly emerging flows to its advice and platforms businesses. Upside from leveraging its Best Advice initiative, A$20m synergies targeted for FY16, and the combined SFG adviser base expanding sales are near-term catalysts. Our target falls from A$10.88 to A$10.76 after our forecast change but still implies a 22.8% total return.

[macduffy]

[QUOTE][Could this “event” prove to be IOOF’s “quality” moment?
/QUOTE]

Perhaps. There'll probably be a time to have a look at this one again - once the SP settles and they sort out their "problems".

[Fisherking]

I purchased a few today, new to the ASX so don't follow my lead!

Looks to me as if this stock has bottomed out and I like the idea of a stock in recovery mode particularly when an event such as has unfolded is likely to focus management attention on swift resolution.

[Joshuatree]

IFL's bad press saw me quit these on Monday. Thought for a while that I'd been a bit hasty but the downtrend has continued as the accusations flow!

The end of an era - as far as I'm concerned - dating back through IOOF and Aust Wealth Mgt to Tower Aust!

http://www.theage.com.au/business/ba...24-ghwpct.html

That was my entry point; storm in a teacup beatup. Great results and outlook today.

Outlook
Mr. Kelaher said, “Commitment to consistent execution of our advice-led strategy means allkey metrics are trending in the right direction: growing adviser numbers; extremely strong netinflows; and productivity initiatives, which are all delivering financial benefits.
“Supported by positive industry fundamentals and demographic trends, IOOF’s uniquepositioning in the industry sees us well placed to deliver positive long-term outcomes for ouradvisers, their clients and our shareholders. As the industry continues to consolidate, there isample opportunity for acquisitive growth to augment our significant organic growth momentum.We have an exceptional track record of delivering value-accretive acquisitions and have thescale, experience and, importantly, financial strength, to take advantage of theseopportunities.”

S/P up re 6% to $10.67 atm but may well drop back as the day goes on.

[Joshuatree]

PDF

Highly complementary
Increases scale
Attractive valuation
s/p 16/10 $11.26

[Joshuatree]

Share Purchase Plan @ $10.60 or less for up to $15000 worth after $461 mill placement to sophs and instos @ $10.60. S/P atm $11.Really big vols going through in the last week or so.

[Joshuatree]

$78 mill (target $100 mill) taken up in spp @ $10.51. S/P $10.50 atm. Looks like a rare situ where us little holders did better than the instos who paid $10.60 i believe and maybe a flat s/p for a while imo.