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  1. #21
    FEAR n GREED JBmurc's Avatar
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    No Queenstown hill will post asap on the home 1.2mill dropped has me curious
    "With a good perspective on history, we can have a better understanding of the past and present, and thus a clear vision of the future." — Carlos Slim Helu

  2. #22
    Advanced Member trackers's Avatar
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    Maybe its leaky?

  3. #23
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    Running with the Bulls!!
    Go with the flow
    slimbo

  4. #24
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    quote:Originally posted by srotherh

    Dont we follow the Assies?

    http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2006/...html?from=top5
    Ouch...

    A fairly extreme example, but still kinda scary!

  5. #25
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    more bad news from sydney! It's going to be a blood bath.

    http://www.jenman.com.au/NewsNews1.php?id=370

    http://www.jenman.com.au/NewsNews1.php?id=308

  6. #26
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    Want proof? Try this. A home sells for $300,000. The owners spend $100,000 on renovations and then sell the home for $400,000. “Prices soar by 33 per cent,” says one set of statistics.

    When you consider that Australians spend around $17 billion a year on home improvements – and that the cost of these improvements are not counted in the statistics – you get some idea of what is meant by “dangerous”.



    good read, thanks.

    have been saying this for years on house "stats"

  7. #27
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    Its already started, smart buyers know, vendors will soon...

  8. #28
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    Business
    Lowering the boom on construction

    Saturday September 9, 2006
    By Anne Gibson


    The construction boom appears to be over, with figures out yesterday showing a rapid downturn in the sector.

    Statistics NZ said the value of building work for the June quarter was down 9.1 per cent on the March quarter on a seasonally adjusted basis, following a 3.6 per cent rise.

    In the June quarter building work was worth $3.1 billion, down on the $3.3 billion in the March quarter. House building is slowing down most.

    Registered Master Builders Federation chief executive Pieter Burghout said the figure could mean the sector would make inroads into the $100 million backlog of house additions and alterations that had accumulated during the building boom.

    Builders who had one to two years' worth of work lined up now had six months to a year's worth of work. "It takes workloads to a manageable level," he said.

    Statistics NZ said the construction sector finished work worth $12.6 billion in the June year, up 5.8 per cent, or $695 million, on the work completed in the previous year.

    Goldman Sachs JBWere economist Shamubeel Eaqub said residential construction plunged by 10.3 per cent in the June quarter, suggesting the long-awaited slowdown was finally gathering pace.

    Non-residential building activity (office blocks, hotels, factories, hospitals and schools) fell 5.5 per cent from the March to the June quarters.

    "The level of activity in the sector still remains very high by historical comparison," Eaqub said.

    "This is consistent with our assessment that the economic downswing is gathering pace.

    "The Reserve Bank will be pleased to see the slowdown in house building, which has been a major source of inflationary pressure.

    "While this has no immediate implications for monetary policy, we believe accumulating evidence of a slowing economy will be pivotal in shifting the Reserve Bank's focus from inflation to growth," Eaqub said.

    The figures appear at odds with data released last week showing that building consents hit a record level in July.

    However, those figures related only to the intention to build - while yesterday's data showed work actually begun.

    Alan Wilkins, an analyst at Winstone Wallboards, said his firm's wall and ceiling product sales had been gradually declining since early last year.

    Statistics NZ gathers the data on building authorisations which comes mainly from builders and property owners.

    Going down

    House building is slowing down fast.

    Builders have less work but there is still a backlog.

    Demand for building products is declining.

    Auckland house prices have dropped.



    \"The overweening conceit which the greater part of men have of their own abilities [and] their absurd presumption in their own good fortune.\" - <b>Adam Smith</b> - <i>The Wealth of Nations</i>

    The information you have is not the information you want.
    The information you want is not the information you need.
    The information you need is not the information you can obtain.
    The informaton you can obtain costs more than you want to pay.

  9. #29
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    there are allready more sellers than buyers in the market and about to get worse.
    \"death&taxes t.o.s.b\"

  10. #30
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    Bank on mortgage misery
    10 September 2006

    By ROD ORAM
    Recent rapid economic growth has wrought some spectacular economic changes. One of the more arresting examples, is the mortgage market but its lending binge is about to create a lot of grief.


    Mortgage lending has been a driver and beneficiary of the longest boom in more than 30 years. Since 1999, the economy has grown about 30%, fuelling brisk job creation and rising wages. And consumers have borrowed big time to fund property and consumer goods purchases.

    The nation's mortgage book grew by 133% from $52b in January 1999 to $121b this July as the lenders fell over themselves to satisfy borrowers. The flood of money pushed house prices and consumer spending to unsustainable highs. Their annual rates of growth peaked last year at 25% and 20% respectively, contributing powerfully to inflation.

    The buoyant conditions have stimulated three major changes in the market. The first is the dramatic shift from floating rate to fixed-rate mortgages. The split between them has swung from 36% floating vs 63% fixed in January 1999 to 16% / 83% this July.

    Two factors have emerged as increased borrowings drove up households' ratio of net debt to disposable income. We now have the second highest household indebtedness rate in the OECD with only Australians in deeper hock.

    Consumers wanted certainty about mortgage payments so they could budget for their high borrowing costs. The lenders obliged with the switch from floating to fixed-rate mortgages. And because of abnormally low interest rates overseas 2002-04 and a high Kiwi dollar, the banks locked in cheap funding overseas for fixed-rate mortgages at home.

    Second, the booming property and mortgage markets gave mortgage brokers perfect conditions to grab business. In less than a decade, they have quadrupled their market share to more than 30%.

    Banks played into the brokers' hands. Ruthless price competition between banks gave brokers the opportunity to sell themselves as the borrowers' friend, seeking out the best deal. But in the process, brokers and lenders have commoditised mortgages by selling on price rather than quality of product and service.

    Banks have also given away business to brokers by devaluing their branch networks, stripping costs and skills, turning them, at best, into service delivery points rather than skilled sales forces.

    Third, the booming markets have attracted innovative new lenders. Two Australian examples are Bluestone and Liberty Financial, which specialise in non-compliant mortgages. They offer products to people rejected by banks because of poor credit records. The companies argue they can handle the increased risk by charging more, by establishing good relations with the borrowers and by spreading their liabilities across a diverse portfolio of properties and locations.

    But by introducing cut-throat rates, lenders have trashed their margins in an egregious example of otherwise sensible people seriously damaging their market.

    The Reserve Bank has pushed up the Official Cash Rate by 2.25 percentage points since mid-2004 but the effective mortgage rate has risen by just 0.95%. This reflects the intense competition between lenders and that fixed-rate mortgages are much less profitable than floating for lenders.

    The banks have typically halved gross lending margins but have maintained reasonable profitability by exploiting low funding costs, slashing operating costs and pushing through high volumes.

    But all three favourable conditions have turned against them. Overseas interest rates have risen steadily since late 2004; there are fewer operating costs to squeeze out of their systems and staff costs are rising; and the housing market is slowing.

    Meanwhile, banks have another pressure on profits: after strenuous efforts by IRD and government, they are now paying nearly the full rate of corporate tax after years of exploiting debt-funding to reduce tax bills.

    The mortgage market can only get bloodier from here. Borrowers will be the first peopl
    \"The overweening conceit which the greater part of men have of their own abilities [and] their absurd presumption in their own good fortune.\" - <b>Adam Smith</b> - <i>The Wealth of Nations</i>

    The information you have is not the information you want.
    The information you want is not the information you need.
    The information you need is not the information you can obtain.
    The informaton you can obtain costs more than you want to pay.

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