Before that happens you'd need a big rise in unemployment followed by a big cut in interest rates.

As it is, unemploment is likely to get lower as the 1946-50 baby boomers will be retiring in 2011-15 and there aren't enough workers to take their place.

New Zealand is one of the four countries - along with Australia, Canada and the US - that had the biggest baby boom. And our boomers hit 60 this year(2006), meaning that in five years(2011), twice as many people will be leaving the workplace as entering it.

"We'll have the biggest demographic trough we will ever have experienced. There will be a war for talent and if we want to prepare for that, to attract and retain the best people, we need to create different environments."