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  1. #161
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    House prices 'overvalued by 20pc'
    After a big jump in interest rates, house prices for investors are overvalued by about 20 per cent, Westpac says.

    The bank expects the housing market to cool down "on all fronts".

    Westpac economist Dominick Stephens said that if fixed-term mortgage rates remained high for a long time they would have a "big impact" on the housing market late this year and next year.

    The "investor value" of an average home is about $65,000 less than present market prices, after an extremely sharp jump in fixed mortgage rates this year from 7.9 per cent in February to 8.6 per cent for five year terms, Westpac says.

    The average median selling price is $343,500, but the Westpac report suggests the current value for an investor is only $278,000 - and that is based on conservative assumptions on interest rates and a rise in rents.

    The investor value of $278,000 on average is calculated using a five-year fixed mortgage rate of 8.5 per cent, though advertised fixed mortgage rates for two years are about 9 per cent. A higher interest rate would imply a lower investor value.

    The calculation also assumed a 2 per cent increase in rents in the six months to June and a long-run average capital gain of 6 per cent a year, though Westpac expected house prices to stagnate next year.

    "Houses are now selling for much more than they are worth to property investors," Mr Stephens said. The numbers "don't appear to stack up for investors", though the figures did not mean investors would immediately start selling for as little as $278,000 for an average house.

    The lack of return for investors would remove one element of demand, especially at the lower end for investment property and first homes.

    It is unclear how big a part of the market investors make up, but they could borrow up to a third of all home loans. There would be a notable absence of new investors from the market and house sales volumes would slow down, Westpac said. High prices and high mortgage interest rates were also tilting people toward renting instead of buying.

    "On all fronts the housing market looks set to cool," Westpac said.

    Rents are expected to rise, but renting remained a cheaper option than trying to pay off a mortgage.

    Westpac argues that the recent boom in house prices is not a bubble. Rather, property was seriously undervalued in 2001 to 2004 by about as much as prices are overvalued now. Prices caught up with the "true value" only in the last couple of years.

    The investor value of a home of $327,000 at the end of last year compared with a selling price of $328,000, indicating prices were fair value.

    http://www.stuff.co.nz/print/4052618a13.html
    \"The overweening conceit which the greater part of men have of their own abilities [and] their absurd presumption in their own good fortune.\" - <b>Adam Smith</b> - <i>The Wealth of Nations</i>

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  2. #162
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    Record-high job figure sparks migration call
    Many more people found a job in the past three months, taking employment to a record high of more than 2.1 million, sparking calls for increased migration to fill the demand for workers.

    http://www.stuff.co.nz/print/4055056a13.html

    Wellington Regional Chamber of Commerce chief executive Charles Finny said there should be "immediate measures" to tackle labour shortages faced by business, with a strong demand for workers.

    The chamber's latest survey of employers shows they are finding it harder to get both skilled and unskilled staff.

    "Employers still want to take on more people - the problem is that they are just not out there," he said.

    Economists said the growth in part-time jobs might reflect the fact that it was hard to find fulltime workers in such a tight job market.

    Mr Finny said immigration rules needed to be relaxed urgently to meet the demand for workers.
    \"The overweening conceit which the greater part of men have of their own abilities [and] their absurd presumption in their own good fortune.\" - <b>Adam Smith</b> - <i>The Wealth of Nations</i>

    The information you have is not the information you want.
    The information you want is not the information you need.
    The information you need is not the information you can obtain.
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  3. #163
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    Quote :

    Wellington Regional Chamber of Commerce chief executive Charles Finny said there should be "immediate measures" to tackle labour shortages faced by business, with a strong demand for workers.

    The chamber's latest survey of employers shows they are finding it harder to get both skilled and unskilled staff.

    "Employers still want to take on more people - the problem is that they are just not out there," he said.

    Economists said the growth in part-time jobs might reflect the fact that it was hard to find fulltime workers in such a tight job market.

    Mr Finny said immigration rules needed to be relaxed urgently to meet the demand for workers.

    *****All this is true only by accepting the large numbers of NZ residents on welfare or otherwise not working in productive jobs - and waiting to be supported by those in existing jobs plus they assume by the new migrant workers - if they work. Many quickly suss out the possibilities. The crime,drugs, etc etc which will only continue to spread throughout NZ - and the cost of bureacracy/police/legal/courts/victims/insurances/loss of protections etc caused by it - will swamp any perceived benefits of immigrating those to do the work.. but unfortunately this not a concern if you live in Bolton St or Thorndon. Nearest Gang house ?


  4. #164
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    A Portsmouth pensioner is claiming a record after living in the same house for 96 years. Alex Baker has stayed in the two-up, two-down terrace since he was born there in 1911. When he spent his first hours there, the Titanic had yet to sail and World War I was still three years away. The house, bought for £130, is now worth £130,000 - but Alex laughed off the idea of ever cashing in. He told the Mirror: "This house has always been my home, so why would I ever want to leave?"

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/column/sto...ectid=10438956


    Assume the house was bought for 130 pound in 1911 - it doesn't say - now worth 130,000 pound.

    From 1911 to 2007 the average yearly price increase has been 7.5%.
    \"The overweening conceit which the greater part of men have of their own abilities [and] their absurd presumption in their own good fortune.\" - <b>Adam Smith</b> - <i>The Wealth of Nations</i>

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  5. #165
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    7.5 % Makes SLFP goal of 15% per annum look good. They develop property & do finance too.

    1/3 property, 1/3 loans 1/3 cash would be a good long term conservative balance.

    Then again 1/3 Nickel & Uranium, 1/3 oil and 1/3 warrents & CFTs if you are in a hurry (to get rich or poor!)

    Makes the super funds eg AMP 4-5% returns look pretty slack.

  6. #166
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    quote:Originally posted by aspex

    Winston is on the case!!!

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/1/...ectid=10439006

    Mr Peters said Reserve Bank Governor Alan Bollard was hamstrung by an act "that is paranoiac about one thing, inflation, to the detriment of other factors which make a sound economy".
    "There are other ways of addressing the issue of inflation," he said.

    "I mean, is it necessary to bring in 48,000, 50,000 immigrants a year, regardless of their quality, regardless of whether they're aligned to jobs?" he asked reporters shortly after delivering a speech in Wellington.
    Immigration was an "important factor" in the debate and people should "not avoid the obvious", Mr Peters said.
    Winston is on the case and as per usual is talking crap.

    "In the past 12 months, about 82,000 new migrants arrived in New Zealand, while 71,000 people left permanently - the balance between the two figures is the net migration gain."

    http://www.stuff.co.nz/4064615a13.html Migration dip may cool house prices

    Some of that 82,000 are NZers coming home, lets say 30,000. The other 50,000 are foreign migrants. Without them NZ's net migration would have been minus 40,000 in the last year.

    \"The overweening conceit which the greater part of men have of their own abilities [and] their absurd presumption in their own good fortune.\" - <b>Adam Smith</b> - <i>The Wealth of Nations</i>

    The information you have is not the information you want.
    The information you want is not the information you need.
    The information you need is not the information you can obtain.
    The informaton you can obtain costs more than you want to pay.

  7. #167
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    Without immigrants the health system would be in even more of a shambles.

    http://www.stuff.co.nz/4066346a10.html

    80pc of new doctors foreign

    More than 80 percent of the doctors newly registered in New Zealand each year are overseas-trained.

    The stunning new figure highlights the continuing haemorrhage of Kiwi-trained doctors from the New Zealand health system - up to 30% of graduates are lost overseas within five years of qualifying.

    \"The overweening conceit which the greater part of men have of their own abilities [and] their absurd presumption in their own good fortune.\" - <b>Adam Smith</b> - <i>The Wealth of Nations</i>

    The information you have is not the information you want.
    The information you want is not the information you need.
    The information you need is not the information you can obtain.
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  8. #168
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    Business after baby-boomers

    The economy's health depends largely on medium-sized businesses passing into the hands of young and ambitious new owners and managers when their baby-boomer founders retire, says the ANZ National Bank.

    The bank, which yesterday released its first annual survey of mid-sized or larger privately owned businesses, said the boomers' approaching retirement could have a profound effect on the sector.

    ANZ National Bank chief executive Graham Hodges said the demographic shift, which would see a sharp jump in the retirement age population between 2006 and 2016, was often mentioned in relation to superannuation and savings issues.

    "There has been less discussion around what that change in the demographic cohorts is going to do to business. This survey gives a feel for what's going on in the minds of the sector."

    ANZ National corporate and commercial banking managing director Nigel Williams said the bank's Privately Owned Business Barometer found that just under half of main business owners of larger, privately owned companies were looking to retire over the next five years, but only about 10 per cent had formal plans for how they were going to get out of their businesses.

    "If owners don't manage this well, the inherent wealth in their business might be a lot less when they come to exit than what they currently think it is," said Hodges.

    Owners might choose to stay longer in their businesses but, having achieved a degree of comfort, would tend to be less aggressive in their investment and expansion plans and would perhaps focus on conserving the value of their business.

    Williams said ANZ National believed owners should consider how to release capital or reduce their involvement while allowing a new group of management or owners to take the company to the next level.

    "It is incredibly important that the next set of owners and management of these companies are successful in growing them.

    "If they don't then we'll compromise New Zealand's growth," said Williams.

    "We won't have these mid-sized companies become big companies."

    The numbers

    New Zealand's medium-sized businesses:

    * 3500 firms employing 30,000 people with annual revenues of about $11 billion.

    * 89 per cent are more than 10 years old, 35 per cent are more than 30 years old.

    * 66 per cent of shareholders are over 50, one third are over 60.

    This is something I hadn't thought of !

    I'm pretty sure the value of property and shares will fall as BB's sell those assest to fund their retirement but this articlesays that the value of privately owned businesses will fall too.

    My fathers neighbour runs a wedding dress shop and has been trying to sell it for years so he can retire. Unfortunately no one will buy it from him for a good price.
    \"The overweening conceit which the greater part of men have of their own abilities [and] their absurd presumption in their own good fortune.\" - <b>Adam Smith</b> - <i>The Wealth of Nations</i>

    The information you have is not the information you want.
    The information you want is not the information you need.
    The information you need is not the information you can obtain.
    The informaton you can obtain costs more than you want to pay.

  9. #169
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    Off to Oz: 600 Kiwis leave a week


    More New Zealanders are leaving the country – mostly to Australia – and fewer are returning, according to a new Government report.

    The Department of Labour's report on permanent and long-term migration issued yesterday showed the number moving to Australia has reached 615 a week, compared to 578 on average last year.

    It said the trend over the last four months had resulted in the first drop in migration inflows since October 2005.

    The National Party seized on the data in Parliament in debate over budget legislation, saying last week's Budget, which did not deliver income tax cuts, would see more people "vote with their feet".

    "It's a city the size of Gisborne being wiped off the New Zealand map in the space of one year," National spokesman for foreign affairs Murray McCully said.

    The number of New Zealanders heading for Australia rose to 32,200 in the year to March, from 30,100 a year earlier.

    Immigration Minister David Cunliffe said there was no cause for real concern and Kiwis were being replaced with immigrants from other countries. "As with all such statistics they bounce up and down," he said.

    "It is pleasing that there is still a positive net inflow of migrants and that New Zealand continues to make gains on the global brain exchange, where we compete with many other countries.

    "I don't remember Sir Robert Muldoon for much, but I do recall he had an amusing line about Kiwis who move across the Tasman."

    Muldoon said Kiwis migrating to Australia raised the average IQ in both countries.

    The Labour Department report showed net migration inflows fell to 12,100 in the year to March, a drop of 2700 from a peak in December. Before that migration had been rising.

    "The recent decrease in net migration has been driven by growing departures, particularly of New Zealanders, as well as fewer New Zealanders returning from overseas," the report said.

    In the year to March, there was a net inflow of 38,300 non-New Zealanders. "The increase in non-New Zealand citizen arrivals has been driven mainly by increased arrivals from Asia," the report said.

    Arrivals from South-east Asia were particularly strong, soaring 71 per cent to 6300. The number of Kiwis returning fell to 23,700 in the year to March, from 24,200 in the previous 12 months. The report said there had been a change in the last year in the origin of those moving to New Zealand, with traditional sources like Britain and Australia on the decline.

    National spokesman on immigration Lockwood Smith said: "To be losing good New Zealanders to Australia, Europe and the Americas, and to have to survive by having more Asian people come to New Zealand is a little bit troubling."


  10. #170
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    How does racist Lockwood Smith know that the Asians replacing the fleeing NZers aren't as good as the people leaving.

    The business migrants each carring a million plus are surely better quality. Many of the others would be better too otherwise they would fail to get the points.

    They have to compete against Europeans (Poms, Dutch, etc) to get those points too.
    \"The overweening conceit which the greater part of men have of their own abilities [and] their absurd presumption in their own good fortune.\" - <b>Adam Smith</b> - <i>The Wealth of Nations</i>

    The information you have is not the information you want.
    The information you want is not the information you need.
    The information you need is not the information you can obtain.
    The informaton you can obtain costs more than you want to pay.

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