AXG - Antipodes Gold [formerly GEL - Glass Earth]

[elZorro]

I have had a look through Google Earth to see if the mining permit to the immediate east of GEL's Waikaia permit shows any action. It was reported as being underway in February this year. The satellite image must be old, as it shows no disturbance to the paddocks there at all.

The GEL report says that there appeared to be no disturbance to the gravel and sediment layers wherever they drilled on the east side of their permit. The Kaipara/Solway drill research concentrated in a narrow strip heading North to South right beside McDonald Road. Where GEL's permit tucked into the bottom end of this channel, they have spent a fair bit of effort getting drills done there, and they have been relatively high grade. One cross-section that was provided implies that there are two wash layers a small distance apart, which merge as you get closer to the Garvie Burn (stream). However the Garvie Burn stream must have been heavily dredged years ago, and the hills to the east of there look to have been sluiced in many places.

Glass Earth has a permit over an unworked area.

Travelling a bit further northwards, Google Earth has been updated in the Drybread area. A bit of cloud there on the day in question, but take a look at the earthworks. They really are mining over there!

[elZorro]

Thanks for that elZorro, always good to see these updates. You appear rather dead-set on this company. Hope it works out for you if you're holding!

Interesting to see that shares are trading at 7 cents CAD which means they should be trading at 8.4 cents NZD here with the exchange rate. Although this is pretty small volume and I can understand why people would not want to lock in losses now. Low volume declines will continue until some good news eh?

Yes Moosie, I've held GEL shares in various amounts since the IPO. I noted the different pricing too, the TSX can be the volatile side of the share though, and where a lot of the volume is seen. There could be a fair bit of news coming soon, as the Q1 report is due by the end of the month, and the crucially important WKP permit needs to be held by a permit extension soon. The share might be illiquid, but behind the scenes the company is doing a lot of work. They need to tell us about it more often.

Here is a bit more data from the NI43-101 report on Waikaia. Very interesting section from across the middle of the proposed mining permit. Looks like there is a false bottom, but GEL might only be looking at the top layer, if the other one is down too deep.

I think I found three diggers in the Moran photo from the satellite. Based on the data from the report showing Moran's status at 1st Jan 2013, this is a photo of sometime in late 2012. The digger at top of the photo is taking a top-bottom trench of gold wash and loading it onto a truck.

[elZorro]

Did you used to be a spy satellite analyst elZorro? Some mighty eye you must have there, along the lines of Cuban Missile Crisis spotting!

Well, I couldn't spot the staff facilities, so they must be very small! If you use Omakau Lauder Creek Otago as keywords and then zoom right in on the 5-way intersection, you can have a look yourself via Google Earth, straight off the web (satellite view of maps).

I think Drybread is good practice for the GEL team, it's safe in that some profit is being made, it's getting better over time, and if they take that positive experience and apply it to some easier ground with higher grades, shareholders won't be shelling out for the hard-rock exploration costs any more. Certainly these shots from above show that they are looking very organised and professional.

[bucko]

the end of the month cannot come soon enough! 9c...

so am i right in assuming that the EoY report that last came out had all of the expenditure write offs for the equipment needed for the placer mine down south....therefore on this end of quarter report that is coming out it should state that the company is self sufficient even possibly in a state of profit as there shouldnt really be any write offs for the placer op on exploration and staff costs?

also im looking forward to seeing how they are measuring up to their own targets they set out in terms of Oz per week production.

I emailed them last week about organising a site visit to the placer production just to have a look and see how well its running, I got a reply from simons assistant saying he should contact me some time next week to discuss the visit for later on in the year!

[elZorro]

Bucko, I'm not an accountant, so don't take any of this as gospel. From memory on the financial reports I read, the writeoffs in the annual books were mostly exploration properties let go from their permit holdings. At that point all the exploration costs have to be written off, previously they were held as an asset (non-depreciated). But this also means that on the books, WKP is not held at a very high capital valuation, because they've not spent much on exploration, a few million (35% share). Of course if it really does hold in the region of at least 3Moz of gold as we've been advised indirectly, it's worth a lot more than that, once serious talk of mining it starts. A preliminary estimate of the resource has to be provided to NZPAM within about a week. This is the first time one has been prepared on the permit.

The placer operation and equipment is different. Dunstan Mining (Bob Kilgour) is being paid for the purchased older plant in instalments that come off the gold production profits. This remainder owing would be a liability, and the full asset cost of the equipment GEL owns will be on the books as assets, but it can be depreciated each year. However some of the NZ$5mill purchase price was for exploration permits in the South Island, and quite a few of these have been let go, so would be part of last year's writeoffs.

At 9c, GEL is worth NZ$9.5mill on paper, so that is a silly price IMHO. The underrated NTA is plus 16.5c per share, last year losses were 18.5c a share, but that's a paper figure too, a catchup on some exploration that didn't make it in the end. Quite a bit of the other exploration is looking very promising.

What NZ company do we know that has an NTA of 32c a share, losses last year of 11c a share, faces global competitors for market share, and yet sells for $13.50 a share, with an MCap of NZ$1.578 billion?

Why the difference in valuation? It's an easier company to understand, more connections to the life of investors, and the company knows how to dress up their proposition.

In Q1, Drybread production should have improved, and for most of it there was a good gold price. I'm expecting to see a good paper profit there, maybe a few details about new equipment being used, what new steps are being taken with the lower PoG to keep the profits flowing.

A site visit would be a great PR exercise for the company, I'm just surprised they haven't organised one earlier. I would think that larger investors have already been shown around the permits. I'd be interested in having a look too.

[elZorro]

No extension for the WKP permit has been filed yet, not as far as the NZPAM records show anyway. I'm picking it'll show up on Monday.

GEL is looking for some more excavator operators.

http://jobs.odt.co.nz/displayjob.php...ation%5B%5D=18

[bucko]

The next report is due out at the end of the month so im forcasting a small rally after its release based off of the income they will be making off of the placer mine down south, reducing the need for further dillution to the stock.

Also I think we are coming up soon to a pre-feasability report in the next 3-6 months with the way these drill results keep striking

[elZorro]

Down to 5 cents CAD on higher than usual volume on Friday on the TSX. Looks like we might have another NTL on our hands here, gold is really falling out of favour!

At current exchange rates the shares should be at 6 cents NZ.

Any clue how low it can go elZorro?

Bucko's probably right here, Moosie, the Q1 news should be fairly good. Even big miners like ABX have been pounded, so nil desperandum. Considering they've just had a PP at C16c, with some big investors involved, and the amount of cash that came in was about half the current MCap, it must be very close to the sensible limit downwards. It's more likely the best buying opportunity we've seen for a long time, but you'd need to be braver than most. I keep an eye on what the Canadian retail investors are saying about GEL, and over the weekend a poster had this to say:

http://www.stockhouse.com/bullboards...0&s=GEL&t=LIST

So far, NZPAM has not posted an EP permit extension application for WKP. I reckon we'll see it on their website today or tomorrow (The WKP permit area was enlarged and accepted in March 2013). The Q1 report will also be out anytime between now and the end of the month.

[bucko]

http://tvnz.co.nz/business-news/gold...-waihi-5443376

As elz said, the permit has doubled in size and the media has paid attention to it, some activity that should be good for the company, im suprised there was no NZX release about this this morning?

[elZorro]

http://tvnz.co.nz/business-news/gold...-waihi-5443376

As elz said, the permit has doubled in size and the media has paid attention to it, some activity that should be good for the company, im suprised there was no NZX release about this this morning?

Thanks Bucko, I hadn't seen that. The permit at Waihi West has been extended back out to the initial area I think. Because it's under the town, everyone treads fairly lightly on the prospects. It would need to be a surgical extraction, well under the ground level, and have high grades to be worth bothering with. I forget what portion Newmont/Waihi Gold can hold under a JV after paying for exploration, but they have already gone over two deadlines. Lucky for them, Glass Earth doesn't have a lot of spare cash at the moment, so the deal has been kept open.

Meanwhile, of huge importance, the WKP permit 40598 has had its extension filed, for a Discovery Appraisal. The paperwork must have gone in yesterday, it's up on the website now, under Recent Applications. It's only been there an hour or so.

http://www.nzpam.govt.nz/cms/online-...ate/CMINPSMINL

The latest set of drilling is also probably underway on WKP.

As you say Bucko, where are the GEL news releases? Why are we always digging stuff out of obscure places to keep ourselves informed? Last I heard, we invested in a publicly listed company.