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  1. #11
    Reincarnated Panthera Snow Leopard's Avatar
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    [:0] Rod buys L&G? [:0]
    I need to go lie down for a while.


    om mani peme hum

  2. #12
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    quote:Originally posted by Lizard

    I have just reduced my FY07 NPAT forecast to $25.6 - $26.2m based on lower margins and higher corporate costs. This puts them on a forward P/E of about 13.5 at current price of $1.65.

    However, higher than expected revenue growth and additional store openings have increased estimates of future earnings, so my valuation stands at $1.70.

    Right now, I suspect the sp falls back slightly or tracks sideways for a while. But I still like for the longer term.

    Has anyone checked out the Urban Loft store in Auckland? I take it that this has opened now and I'd be interested in any comments.
    Sales for the Jan qtr came out right on line with my model, to take revenue to $372m. I am currently working on the lower end of the expected NPAT range, at $25.6m. I think BGR is pretty fairly valued at current price for now.

  3. #13
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    good work Lizard.
    everyone must have taken great note of your post because the jan 1/4 report has not created even a wee ripple.
    in fact, the chart is beginning to look a bit tired, with bgr beginning its 9th week of ranging between 175 and 180c.
    the resistance level of 180 has been tested 6/7 times to no avail.
    scamper still holds some.

  4. #14
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    Briscoe Group results for the year to 28th Jan 2007 were released today.

    • Sales revenue up 8.3% to $372,078
    • Profit after tax up 5.2% to $26,048
    • Basic EPS up 5.1% to 12.3c
    • Diluted EPS up 4.3% to 12.1c
    • Final dividend held at 4.5c (to be paid 4th May, record date 13th April)
    • Total annual dividend up 6.7% to 8.0c


    The full results announcement is here: NZX - Briscoe Group FY to 28/01/2007

  5. #15
    ? steve fleming's Avatar
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    quote:Originally posted by Lizard

    I have just reduced my FY07 NPAT forecast to $25.6 - $26.2m based on lower margins and higher corporate costs.
    quote:Originally posted by Deev8

    Briscoe Group results for the year to 28th Jan 2007 were released today.
    [*]Profit after tax up 5.2% to $26,048
    Hi Liz...Spot on!...nice work!
    Share prices follow earnings....buy EPS growth!!



  6. #16
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    Thanks Steve. BGR is actually one of the most easy to model - enough history of profitable operations to be able to get meaningful results from a few basic inputs. Also,one of the most rewarding to model, because though the initial spreadsheet might take an hour or so, quarterly sales announcements take less than a minute to plug in and assess the impact. Time advantage is one more margin of safety.

    I still hold BGR, though I'm not expecting alot from them for now.

    I will update the model for current year when the printed report is available.

  7. #17
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    I have just been reading through the BGR annual report which arrived today. It is interesting to note the amount that has been invested in the business this year through increases in stores/floor area, purchase of Living & Giving and investment in systems. It also seems that the current year has started positively, although it is early days.

    It may be foolish in the current environment, but I have upgraded my FY 2008 profit estimate to $28.4 - $29.2m and my valuation to $1.97.

  8. #18
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    Default Briscoe's Results

    Briscoe Group released their results for the year to 31st Dec 2007 this morning.

    The directors of Briscoe Group Limited announce an audited net profit after tax (NPAT) of $22.4 million for the year ending 27 January 2008. The result, which is slightly ahead of the directors' most recent guidance of $22 million, compares with the $26.05 million reported result for the previous year.

    The earnings were generated on sales revenue of $407.75 million, up 9.6% on the $372.08 million reported in the previous year.

    The Group's gross profit increased 8.6% from $151.73 million to $164.83 million for the year, equating to a gross profit margin of 40.4% compared to 40.8% for the 2006-07 year.

    Earnings before interest and taxation (EBIT) declined 12.4% from $36.25 million for 2006-07 to $31.77 million for the 2007-08 year.

    The directors have resolved to pay an unchanged final dividend of 4.50 cents per share (cps). The dividend is fully imputed and, when added to the interim payment of 3.50 cps, brings the total dividend for the year to 8.00 cps (previous year 8.00 cps) and represents 76% of the Group's tax paid earnings.

    The final dividend will be paid on 2 May 2008. The share register will close to determine entitlements to the dividend at 5 pm on 11 April 2008.

    Group Managing Director, Rod Duke, said "This year certainly proved difficult, reflecting the challenging trading conditions faced by retailers. Despite the tight retail environment we were pleased to deliver strong increases in sales and gross profit. Operating costs were impacted by the continuing pressures of a tight labour market, high fuel and transportation costs, the opening of 11 new stores across the Group and the implementation of new SAP financials and merchandising systems software. The substantial investment in our extensive new store and store refurbishment programmes over the last several years, is the principal contributor to our interest revenue being $1.0 million lower than for the previous year. Our cash position remains strong."

  9. #19
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    My forecast of 12 months ago ended up being well out - not because of sales or margins, but because of the rate of expansion of corporate costs. I would note that from my records, BGR have expanded corporate costs at a much greater rate than the rate of revenue growth in 2 out of the past 7 years.

  10. #20
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    Briscoe warns of slashed profits
    By DAVID HARGREAVES | Wednesday, 07 May 2008

    LATEST: Retailer Briscoe Group is warning that its half-year profits might be down as much as 50 per cent on the figures for the same period a year ago.

    http://www.stuff.co.nz/4514456a13.html

    OUCH! Bad time to be in retail stocks. Cant see NZ economy recovering anytime soon.
    Having got ourselves into a debt-induced economic crisis, the only permanent way out is to reduce the debt – either directly by abolishing large slabs of it, or indirectly by inflating it away.

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