BGR - Briscoes Valuation

**Muse** · 04-02-2022, 09:42 AM

Originally Posted by winner69

I apologise to Rod and will eat humble pie saying that his forecast of $85m was a bit stretched

Its going to be $87m - well done Rod

All that recent sell off in vain

All good w69

Originally Posted by Fiordland Moose

- IE briscoes marketcap less the spot price value of its KMD stake. Briscoes will likely have rec'd ~$2m in dividends from KMD so that should be adjusted out of Briscoes npat if you are trying to find a true PE ex KMD (too lazy to fix it up) - let's just say I assume briscoes will do $87m npat, less the 2m, so 85

hey I even called $87m exactly - bot bad eh

**DazRaz** · 04-02-2022, 09:48 AM

They have increased the dividend 8 years out of the last 10 and on a chart it looks great. My biggest holding and happy to hold for longer.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...2&format=image

**Muse** · 04-02-2022, 10:09 AM

Originally Posted by DazRaz

They have increased the dividend 8 years out of the last 10 and on a chart it looks great. My biggest holding and happy to hold for longer.

well deraz we are going to get another nice fat dividend in march. happy days.

**Rawz** · 04-02-2022, 10:15 AM

what an amazing company

**winner69** · 04-02-2022, 10:18 AM

Chart below shows why I got the idea that Briscoes npat wouldn't get to $85m. There was some rationale as to saying that - can't be right all the time

I assumed that the sales line would revert back closer to the pre-covid trend (like other NZ retailers). But they didn't and my sales forecast was about $25m out.

The real story behind the chart is that Briscoes have come out post lock downs etc sales wise (and thus profit wise) in a better state than prior to covid. It's looking like many retailers NZ sales have seen their sales revert back to pre-covid trend (or even below)

Concusion - Briscoes killing the competition

**Muse** · 04-02-2022, 10:23 AM

Originally Posted by winner69

Chart below shows why I got the idea that Briscoes npat wouldn't get to $85m. There was some rationale as to saying that - can't be right all the time

I assumed that the sales line would revert back closer to the pre-covid trend (like other NZ retailers). But they didn't and my sales forecast was about $25m out.

The real story behind the chart is that Briscoes have come out post lock downs etc sales wise (and thus profit wise) in a better state than prior to covid. It's looking like many retailers NZ sales have seen their sales revert back to pre-covid trend (or even below)

Concusion - Briscoes killing the competition

the work they did in having the right stock at the right time was clearly key and I cant over emphasise how important the work they have done on this and in expanding their margins. These are such fine details but reflect the operational excellence that resides within the company.

**Mr Slothbear** · 04-02-2022, 10:26 AM

“Rod Duke said, "Having reached the end of the Group's financial year last
week and now having the benefit of certainty in relation to sales quantum, we
anticipate that the Group will exceed the $85 million upper range limit of
the NPAT guidance previously given in November. We now expect a full year
NPAT of approximately $87 million, around 20% above last year's reported
NPAT.”

outstanding

**Waltzing** · 04-02-2022, 10:26 AM

Oh bummer we might have to buy some more!!!

Thank goodness !!!

Everyone can order more bacon and eggs ...

It appears the world is not returning last week to a pre COD state not for BRISC any way, not yet.

Buy more... quick.