Good point winner. Top 5 stocks making up re 39%. Credit Corp is drifting down but the rest look pretty good. If NAV is still the same ,discount now re 16%.
Last edited by Joshuatree; 01-04-2014 at 02:18 PM.
Maybe the type of investors who were holding Barramundi were doing so because bank interest rates were so terrible. Now that bank interest rates are picking up (or forecast to) and Australia is apparently underperforming, they are selling out and happily plonking their money in the bank?
Looks to be in a fairly well established downtrend. Depth doesn't look very good either, if it's accurate.
Perhaps one contributing factor to the recent decline is the Fisher Funds Australian portfolio manager, Frank Jasper is stepping down for a different role at Fisher Funds. The current International funds analyst Manuel Greenland is taking over.
This could be a good thing for BRM though. While Frank seems like a nice guy, BRM hasn't performed well at all in recent years and failed to fire like KFL. Manuel might do a better job.
Interestingly at 61 the 12% discount to NAV is just about the average it has been over the past 15 months or so (see chart)
Analysts often use a z-score (no not the Altman one) to assess whether a fund like this is a screaming buy or a sell. The magnitude of the z-score shows whether the difference between the current discount and the average is statistically significant, ie is the difference due to more than just random chance?
BRM short term z-score is 0.1 - as you would think seeing todays discount is pretty close to the average anyway. Would be better to take a longer time frame but a cursory look at a chart in one of their reports would suggest the long term average is higher than what it is now anyway. So on these numbers pretty ho hum and not a screaming buy. Guru analysts would like to see a 16%/17% discount before saying a screaming buy
BRM is a bit unusual with giving punters investments back as a dividend so such an analytical tool maybe not that appropriate. Whatever one should not forget that invariably the discount to NAV of most investment funds in the NPV of future management fees which in this case (as Balance would remind us) are quite high. Sometimes I feel that future dividends are somehow incorporated into the discount as well.
Thanks for raising such a subject - had a look at some numbers which was interesting but not really tempted
Winner that is an excellent reply. Thanks for the great post. So the answer to Bryn's original question is probably that it has been overpriced as of recent and that the current price is just correcting to normal where it now lies.
The last six months of the shareprice follows a parabolic arc up and down, funnily enough as does Winners graph...
Yes very good little chart there. Not being picky but i make it 13% discount , 8 divided by 69. My situ and current rebalancing requires more income from my portfolio; BRM fits nicely at decent discount and hopefully Genesis is a good fit too. Caveat with BRM is a possible decent correction coming so haven't gone ballistic with my first shoal of shares.
Yes very good little chart there. Not being picky but i make it 13% discount , 8 divided by 69. My situ and current rebalancing requires more income from my portfolio; BRM fits nicely at decent discount and hopefully Genesis is a good fit too. Caveat with BRM is a possible decent correction coming so haven't gone ballistic with my first shoal of shares.
To be really really picky my trusty Canon calculator says 8/69 is 11.6% .....and I was nice and rounded to 12%
You work for KMD obviously ....they managed to increase profits by 9.8% but with several sets of roundings were able to report them being 11% up
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