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  1. #31
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    Looks like someone else tends to agree with your valuation Lizard, has climbed up nicely in the past few days

  2. #32
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    Looks a bit better. Though I think we probably need a close above $1.10 before Phaedrus would consider breaking out the charts. Even then, a TA probably wouldn't be rushing in considering SKL's long term record.

    From a FA perspective, I wouldn't want to underplay the risks. A nasty surprise could topple something with this much debt. Personally, I think that is unlikely at this point. I also think that now that the currency/hedging situation is no longer a hidden underlying factor in their NPAT, it should be possible to see steady profit growth emerge. I have been watching SKL for several years and have been a holder of various sized parcels - I am hopeful that they have finally reached the turning point. Though perhaps 6 months of consolidation until they have finished shoring up the balance sheet and proved up their forecast?

  3. #33
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    This is silly - market rallies and SKL holds their agm, confirms guidance for increased NPAT of $13.4m and the price falls?

    Not many shares I've seen with P/E of 8.5, gross yield of 10.7% (at 80cps) and yet predicting profit growth in current conditions.

    SKL have been doing alot right in the background, belied by the share price, although with 6cps divs, the rights issue has still been profitable for holders this year.

  4. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lizard View Post
    Not many shares I've seen with P/E of 8.5, gross yield of 10.7% (at 80cps) and yet predicting profit growth in current conditions.
    The problem is that hardly anyone puts any faith in earnings guidance from any company at the moment. Too many companies, in too many markets have been saying 'Oops, we got it wrong'.

    Having said that, Skellerup does look like one of the better prospects in the NZ market.

  5. #35
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    SKL reaches all time low at 50 cents

    The half year result was pretty healthy and the outlook was not that gloomy .... even expecting to make about the same profit in H2 as in H1 .... have been pretty good in their guidance lately

    Now down to less than 5 times expected earnings but I am sensing that those who make the shareprice move are looking more at multiplies like EV:EBITDA. On this one SKL at 51 cents is on 5-6 times which is what a lot of industrials are trading at the moment .... the sort of valuation that doesn;t scream out and say 'buy the company' either


    Other negatives are just having $80m of debt (equity of $74m) on the books .... and as often happens once tarred as the pariah of the stockmarket (as Skellerup once was) nobody really wants to know about you again

  6. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    SKL reaches all time low at 50 cents

    The half year result was pretty healthy and the outlook was not that gloomy .... even expecting to make about the same profit in H2 as in H1 .... have been pretty good in their guidance lately

    Now down to less than 5 times expected earnings but I am sensing that those who make the shareprice move are looking more at multiplies like EV:EBITDA. On this one SKL at 51 cents is on 5-6 times which is what a lot of industrials are trading at the moment .... the sort of valuation that doesn;t scream out and say 'buy the company' either


    Other negatives are just having $80m of debt (equity of $74m) on the books .... and as often happens once tarred as the pariah of the stockmarket (as Skellerup once was) nobody really wants to know about you again
    Obviously things change pretty quick in the world of rubber makers .... announcing that 2nd half profits will only be 40% to 60% down on what they said a month ago is not a good look

    Probably means that pariah label will return

    Interesting that just as the shareprice was close to breaking a down trend line this happens
    Last edited by winner69; 09-04-2009 at 08:06 PM.

  7. #37
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    Out of interest, I just downloaded the July company newsletter from the web-site.

    On the negative side, Don Stewart sounds rather dubious about the prospects for 2010, calling it "challenging" and referring to brighter prospects only as "in the medium term". However, the brighter prospects included a few of things of note:

    1. Tumedei "well on track" for E20m sales by 2015 - that's currently over $NZ40m revenue and well up on the $NZ15m they were bringing to the table in early 2007 when they were acquired. Suggests about 13-14% pa growth in sales. Targetting E50m by 2022 which would be around 7.5%pa growth in sales from here.

    2. Deks - awarded a preferred supplier contract for 300 Mitre 10 stores in Australia. Reported that the contract will grow to be worth about $A500,000 over the next 3 years. Seems to have been awarded very recently and I'm surprised it didn't rate an announcement if that revenue impact is correct.

    3. Agri-business - got to be a tough sector at present, but still managed 20% increase in sales over last year at Mystery Creek (fwiw). Some long-overdue improvements to gumboot wearability too

    4. Gulf Rubber - new "multi million dollar" contract for new Jeep Cherokee rubber couplings.

    Overall though, the "feel" of the newsletter is that the current 6 month period might be on the quiet side, so hope they can slip through regards the EBIT covenants on that debt or it will be back to the shareholders again...

  8. #38
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    WHATT ??? Not another shareholders bailout............

  9. #39
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    Result in yesterday. Came in better than their forecast, but the second half was still weak, weak, weak. Which means either the banks are getting tetchy or they decided to beat them to the punch and go back to shareholders for another $20m. 2:5 at 40cps.

    Necessary move imo and gets debt down to levels I'd consider comfortably manageable. Post-rights issue, I think underlying value is around 80cps, but might need some hint of strengthening sales this side of Christmas to get any wind behind that share price?

  10. #40
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    Angry

    I hold a small parcel of SKL which I inherited reluctantly years ago from the collapse of management buyout. It is just a DOG. Sometime ago it has a rights issue of 0.80c which I took up and now they want another one. NO ****WAY I am not going to throw money away

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