sharetrader
Page 3 of 54 FirstFirst 12345671353 ... LastLast
Results 31 to 45 of 803
  1. #31
    Member
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Location
    Auckland, , New Zealand.
    Posts
    520

    Default

    Looks like someone else tends to agree with your valuation Lizard, has climbed up nicely in the past few days

  2. #32
    Share Collector
    Join Date
    Mar 2005
    Location
    Porirua
    Posts
    3,866

    Default

    Looks a bit better. Though I think we probably need a close above $1.10 before Phaedrus would consider breaking out the charts. Even then, a TA probably wouldn't be rushing in considering SKL's long term record.

    From a FA perspective, I wouldn't want to underplay the risks. A nasty surprise could topple something with this much debt. Personally, I think that is unlikely at this point. I also think that now that the currency/hedging situation is no longer a hidden underlying factor in their NPAT, it should be possible to see steady profit growth emerge. I have been watching SKL for several years and have been a holder of various sized parcels - I am hopeful that they have finally reached the turning point. Though perhaps 6 months of consolidation until they have finished shoring up the balance sheet and proved up their forecast?

  3. #33
    Share Collector
    Join Date
    Mar 2005
    Location
    Porirua
    Posts
    3,866

    Default

    This is silly - market rallies and SKL holds their agm, confirms guidance for increased NPAT of $13.4m and the price falls?

    Not many shares I've seen with P/E of 8.5, gross yield of 10.7% (at 80cps) and yet predicting profit growth in current conditions.

    SKL have been doing alot right in the background, belied by the share price, although with 6cps divs, the rights issue has still been profitable for holders this year.

  4. #34
    Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    Auckland, New Zealand.
    Posts
    275

    Default Company Guidance

    Quote Originally Posted by Lizard View Post
    Not many shares I've seen with P/E of 8.5, gross yield of 10.7% (at 80cps) and yet predicting profit growth in current conditions.
    The problem is that hardly anyone puts any faith in earnings guidance from any company at the moment. Too many companies, in too many markets have been saying 'Oops, we got it wrong'.

    Having said that, Skellerup does look like one of the better prospects in the NZ market.

  5. #35
    An Awesome Cool Cat winner69's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2001
    Location
    , , .
    Posts
    24,241

    Default

    SKL reaches all time low at 50 cents

    The half year result was pretty healthy and the outlook was not that gloomy .... even expecting to make about the same profit in H2 as in H1 .... have been pretty good in their guidance lately

    Now down to less than 5 times expected earnings but I am sensing that those who make the shareprice move are looking more at multiplies like EV:EBITDA. On this one SKL at 51 cents is on 5-6 times which is what a lot of industrials are trading at the moment .... the sort of valuation that doesn;t scream out and say 'buy the company' either


    Other negatives are just having $80m of debt (equity of $74m) on the books .... and as often happens once tarred as the pariah of the stockmarket (as Skellerup once was) nobody really wants to know about you again

  6. #36
    An Awesome Cool Cat winner69's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2001
    Location
    , , .
    Posts
    24,241

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    SKL reaches all time low at 50 cents

    The half year result was pretty healthy and the outlook was not that gloomy .... even expecting to make about the same profit in H2 as in H1 .... have been pretty good in their guidance lately

    Now down to less than 5 times expected earnings but I am sensing that those who make the shareprice move are looking more at multiplies like EV:EBITDA. On this one SKL at 51 cents is on 5-6 times which is what a lot of industrials are trading at the moment .... the sort of valuation that doesn;t scream out and say 'buy the company' either


    Other negatives are just having $80m of debt (equity of $74m) on the books .... and as often happens once tarred as the pariah of the stockmarket (as Skellerup once was) nobody really wants to know about you again
    Obviously things change pretty quick in the world of rubber makers .... announcing that 2nd half profits will only be 40% to 60% down on what they said a month ago is not a good look

    Probably means that pariah label will return

    Interesting that just as the shareprice was close to breaking a down trend line this happens
    Last edited by winner69; 09-04-2009 at 08:06 PM.

  7. #37
    Share Collector
    Join Date
    Mar 2005
    Location
    Porirua
    Posts
    3,866

    Default

    Out of interest, I just downloaded the July company newsletter from the web-site.

    On the negative side, Don Stewart sounds rather dubious about the prospects for 2010, calling it "challenging" and referring to brighter prospects only as "in the medium term". However, the brighter prospects included a few of things of note:

    1. Tumedei "well on track" for E20m sales by 2015 - that's currently over $NZ40m revenue and well up on the $NZ15m they were bringing to the table in early 2007 when they were acquired. Suggests about 13-14% pa growth in sales. Targetting E50m by 2022 which would be around 7.5%pa growth in sales from here.

    2. Deks - awarded a preferred supplier contract for 300 Mitre 10 stores in Australia. Reported that the contract will grow to be worth about $A500,000 over the next 3 years. Seems to have been awarded very recently and I'm surprised it didn't rate an announcement if that revenue impact is correct.

    3. Agri-business - got to be a tough sector at present, but still managed 20% increase in sales over last year at Mystery Creek (fwiw). Some long-overdue improvements to gumboot wearability too

    4. Gulf Rubber - new "multi million dollar" contract for new Jeep Cherokee rubber couplings.

    Overall though, the "feel" of the newsletter is that the current 6 month period might be on the quiet side, so hope they can slip through regards the EBIT covenants on that debt or it will be back to the shareholders again...

  8. #38
    Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2000
    Location
    Lower Hutt,NZ
    Posts
    180

    Default

    WHATT ??? Not another shareholders bailout............

  9. #39
    Share Collector
    Join Date
    Mar 2005
    Location
    Porirua
    Posts
    3,866

    Default

    Result in yesterday. Came in better than their forecast, but the second half was still weak, weak, weak. Which means either the banks are getting tetchy or they decided to beat them to the punch and go back to shareholders for another $20m. 2:5 at 40cps.

    Necessary move imo and gets debt down to levels I'd consider comfortably manageable. Post-rights issue, I think underlying value is around 80cps, but might need some hint of strengthening sales this side of Christmas to get any wind behind that share price?

  10. #40
    Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2000
    Location
    Lower Hutt,NZ
    Posts
    180

    Angry

    I hold a small parcel of SKL which I inherited reluctantly years ago from the collapse of management buyout. It is just a DOG. Sometime ago it has a rights issue of 0.80c which I took up and now they want another one. NO ****WAY I am not going to throw money away

  11. #41
    Share Collector
    Join Date
    Mar 2005
    Location
    Porirua
    Posts
    3,866

    Default

    Last day for rights trading today. Applications for rights close Thursday.

    Personally have taken up rights and applied for top-up shares, as I think this raising finally provides a firm base for SKL going forward. I also tend to think profit upgrades are more likely than downgrades this year.

    The September company newsletter sounds a little brighter than the June one - although still cautious.

    Currency fluctuations should be less of an issue for SKL than for most NZ-listed manufacturers, as they have attempted to diversify their geographic base to be overall currency neutral.

    I currently have a 12 month price target of 70cps.

  12. #42
    Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2000
    Location
    Lower Hutt,NZ
    Posts
    180

    Thumbs down

    Surprise, surprise........ the take up of the rights issue has been over subscribed. I was wondering why so many suckers got sucked in by this dog

  13. #43
    Member
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Location
    Auckland, , New Zealand.
    Posts
    520

    Default

    I also took up my rights, and also applied for additional top up shares, to my surprise I was allocated all the top up shares I applied for, there can't have been any scaling ? Just wondering how others got on here ? No announcement from company on how they dealt with top up applications ?

  14. #44
    Member
    Join Date
    Sep 2006
    Location
    auckland, , New Zealand.
    Posts
    435

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by kura View Post
    I also took up my rights, and also applied for additional top up shares, to my surprise I was allocated all the top up shares I applied for, there can't have been any scaling ? Just wondering how others got on here ? No announcement from company on how they dealt with top up applications ?
    I only have a small holding in SKL, applied for extra shares and got scaled back by about 10%. Quite happy with the outcome though.

  15. #45
    Share Collector
    Join Date
    Mar 2005
    Location
    Porirua
    Posts
    3,866

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by kura View Post
    I also took up my rights, and also applied for additional top up shares, to my surprise I was allocated all the top up shares I applied for, there can't have been any scaling ?
    I think I got scaled back quite a bit, maybe only got 65% - perhaps because the portfolio I applied for extra through is the one which holds the least shares.

Tags for this Thread

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •