sharetrader
Page 98 of 126 FirstFirst ... 4888949596979899100101102108 ... LastLast
Results 971 to 980 of 1254
  1. #971
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    Posts
    9,497

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Another positive announcement from a company that has recently consistently delivered for shareholders.

    I added the recently for you

    But no worries about the past - the future brighter than ever
    You did beat me to it ... Anybody remembering the GFC? - SKL shareholders didn't look that happy during that time :
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  2. #972
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2001
    Location
    , , .
    Posts
    37,739

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by BlackPeter View Post
    You did beat me to it ... Anybody remembering the GFC? - SKL shareholders didn't look that happy during that time :
    ....and many years after the GFC ....but heck let bygones be bygones

    Skellerup is now a star performer
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  3. #973
    Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2014
    Location
    In Exile
    Posts
    337

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Another positive announcement from a company that has recently consistently delivered for shareholders.

    I added the recently for you

    But no worries about the past - the future brighter than ever
    Fair comment. I've edited my post ...

  4. #974
    Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    It varies
    Posts
    218

    Red face

    Quote Originally Posted by BlackPeter View Post
    You did beat me to it ... Anybody remembering the GFC? - SKL shareholders didn't look that happy during that time :
    Yes I remember it well... I bought more then and I bought more today.
    Happy holder for many years.
    Last edited by Soolaimon; 19-04-2021 at 12:22 PM.
    Soolaimon

  5. #975
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Oct 2014
    Location
    rural canterbury
    Posts
    1,357

    Default

    And yet its down on the day, go figure

  6. #976
    Legend
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    Everywhere
    Posts
    6,928

    Default

    Just a few words -- follow the old smart money (Cushing & Co )

    when they jump ship, time to sit up & look around..

    they're on the board with this one & a few others too .. The No Moa now Co. too ..
    Last edited by nztx; 19-04-2021 at 04:23 PM.

  7. #977
    On the doghouse
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Location
    , , New Zealand.
    Posts
    9,223

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by nztx View Post
    Just a few words -- follow the old smart money (Cushing & Co )

    when they jump ship, time to sit up & look around..
    Does Liz Coutts count as 'old money'? I think she was mentored by dear old Sir Selwyn in the early days. A couple of hundred thousand SKL shares cashed out on 23rd April. $869,800 / 200,000 = $4.35 per share for our Liz as announced to the stock exchange today. Mind you still 720,000 shares of skin in the game so hardly 'jumping ship'. A balmy winter forecast for Auckland means that 'new deck' beckons?

    SNOOPY
    Watch out for the most persistent and dangerous version of Covid-19: B.S.24/7

  8. #978
    Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2020
    Location
    christchurch
    Posts
    61

  9. #979
    Advanced Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2007
    Location
    Hastings, , New Zealand.
    Posts
    2,451

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Snoopy View Post
    Does Liz Coutts count as 'old money'? I think she was mentored by dear old Sir Selwyn in the early days. A couple of hundred thousand SKL shares cashed out on 23rd April. $869,800 / 200,000 = $4.35 per share for our Liz as announced to the stock exchange today. Mind you still 720,000 shares of skin in the game so hardly 'jumping ship'. A balmy winter forecast for Auckland means that 'new deck' beckons?

    SNOOPY
    Dear old Sir Selwyn?

    Wasn't he the one that cheap old Sir Bob Jones mentioned in one of his books, that he was only suitable for doing the local plumbers accounts?

  10. #980
    On the doghouse
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Location
    , , New Zealand.
    Posts
    9,223

    Default 'Simply Wall Street' 2nd May 2020 Valuation Review

    Quote Originally Posted by Snoopy View Post
    Earnings Per Share = Normalised Net Profit over Year / No.of fully paid shares on issue at End of Year

    2020: ($39.831-$0.685-$10.767+$0.400+0.72x0.255)m/194.753m = 14.9cps

    Notes:

    a/ Results have had foreign exchange currency gains removed (FY2020 $0.685m)

    d/ FY2020 result adds back an after tax $0.400m 'before IFRS16' adjustment to allow a like with like comparison of NPAT with previous years.
    e/ FY2020 result adjusted for a $0.255m 'vacated lease' payment. ( AR2020 )
    Quote Originally Posted by Snoopy View Post
    Return on Equity = Net Profit After Tax / Shareholder Funds at End of Financial Year

    2016: $22.849m /$155.855m= 14.7%
    2017: $19.635m /$159.247m= 12.3%
    2018: $26.154m /$172.286m= 15.2%
    2019: $29.233m /$178.392m= 16.4%
    2020: $28.963m /$184.563m= 15.7%

    14.7% rounds up to 15% in whole number terms.
    Quote Originally Posted by blackie View Post
    Thanks for the 'Simply Wall Street' reference Blackie. That was quite a bullish review on a company that I know well. A large factor in the bullishness was the touted 20% 'ROCE'. ROCE (Return on Capital Employed) is similar measure to the ROE (Return on Equity) that I have calculated above for the preceding five years. The difference being:

    ROCE = (Earnings Before Interest and Tax) / (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)

    ROE = (Net Profit After Tax) / (Total Assets - Total Liabilities)

    If I take the unadjusted earnings from FY2020 I calculate ROCE as follows:

    ($39.631m + $2.582m) / ($283.642m - $36.550m) = 17.1%

    The 'Simply Wall Street' guys used slightly different numbers to get an ROCE of 20%. I cannot explain where SWS get their slightly different numbers from. But both 17.1% and 20% are good figures, and the difference is not material to the broader discussion. The article suggests that an ROCE of 20% should be used to project earnings going forwards. Given the average ROCE over the previous five years would have been significantly below this figure, I believe that would be a rather too aggressive assumption.

    I don't use ROCE to evaluate companies myself. That is because companies:

    1/ do have to pay interest AND
    2 do have to pay income tax, AND

    that 'money out' is money that cannot be reinvested for future growth. ROCE ignores interest and tax and that IMO gives a less accurate picture of the future capital that the company can internally generate.

    My post 882 suggests an earnings per share growth rate of some 3% per year, verses the SWS figure of 8.45% per year. The justification for that 8.45% is that earnings have grown even faster than that over the previous five years (10.3% per year). My adjusted calculations (post 857) show a five year 'eps' growth rate of:

    11.1(1+g)^5 - 14.8 => g = 5.9%, or much lower than SWS is telling us happened.

    So based on historical record reality, I think the SWS projected growth rate is too high. It would be great if I was wrong and SWS turned out to be right. But I like to do my calculations based on earnings growth that can be demonstrated to have happened in the past, and I can't replicate the SWS calculations on growth.

    With SKL trading at $4.50 on the day SWS published their analysis suggestion is that this price is only 43,2% of 'fair value':

    $4.50 / 0.432 = $10.42 (SWS fair value for SKL)

    Good luck with that.

    'Warning sign 1' highlighted by SWS was the insider share sell down by chairman Liz Coutts (my post 977) that I do not consider an issue.
    An unstable dividend track record' is the other point of concern. However, this statement appears to be just plain incorrect as the dividend has been increasing every year for the last few years. Skellerup even continued to pay dividends through the initial Covid-19 scare.

    A problem I see is that the share price has grown by 100% purely as a result of PE expansion. I am always suspicious as to the sustainability of this, even though an historical adjusted PE of 30 (15 is more the historical average for SKL) doesn't look out of line with some other well performed shares in the market today. In the meantime I think I will continue to hold my SKL shares until they reach that SWS target of $10.42 ;-). Nevertheless I feel that may be a considerable number of years into the future!

    SNOOPY

    discl: hold SKL and not increasing my holding at today's prices.
    Last edited by Snoopy; 09-05-2021 at 08:25 AM.
    Watch out for the most persistent and dangerous version of Covid-19: B.S.24/7

Tags for this Thread

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •