Skellerup (SKL) Fundamentals

[Beagle]

While you're at it you could ask them what happened to Q2 last year ? For them to say Skellerup expects "Strong increase in profit this year" on 28 October 2015 based on strong first quarter and then report a reduced profit in the first half compared to the year before Q2 financial performance must have been a real shocker !
Then as noted above 2H performance also woefully undershot expectations so in reality it looks like they had a very strong Q1 and then Q2, Q3 and Q4 of FY16 were all poor ! Now in Q1 FY17 and beyond it looks like the currency is about 12% higher and maybe headed even higher and taking into account recent dismal performance exactly what specific factors are directors basing their confidence of profit growth in FY17 on ? Yet another good question for the annual meeting ?

By contrast Air forecasted at the AGM last year $400m plus operating profit before tax for !h FY16, didn't need to revise it and achieved it. At the half year result they forecast $800m plus operating profit before extraordinary items and tax, didn't change the forecast and achieved it with $806m. Not too shabby for such a volatile industry and they were good last year too, so what degree of confidence can investors have that they'll achieve their forecast range this year ?, pretty good chance I reckon.

Keep in mind the old bugbear with exporters BP, Currency. Averaged about 65 cents U.S. for most of last year, now ~ 12% higher, headwind for SKL for FY17 ? What if leading economist Tony Alexander's forecast of high 70's low 80 cents U.S. comes true in 2017, impact on SKL and other exporters ? Anyway good luck with it but know that Selwyn Cushing was buying in volume last year too, didn't translate into any meaningful lead indicator then so why should it now ?

Conclusion - I agree there are some shocking miss's on forecasts with a range of other, shall we say politely "less than blue chip companies" and for that matter some blue chips as well, some worse than SKL but I didn't expect to see SKL to be one of the biggest forecast miss's for FY16, did you ?