Skellerup (SKL) Fundamentals

[blackie]

great weather down here in the mainland,
I mean great for the sales of red bands.
this stock stays out of the headlines but has been a solid addition for me, buying wee parcels over the past 12 months

[Soolaimon]

One of the best for me, I think we will see $5 in the near future.
Good management, good products, good exposure, good dividends.
Steady performer of late.
Happy holder

[Soolaimon]

One of the best for me, I think we will see $5 in the near future.
Good management, good products, good exposure, good dividends.
Steady performer of late.
Happy holder

[Soolaimon]

One of the best for me, I think we will see $5 in the near future.
Good management, good products, good exposure, good dividends.
Steady performer of late.
Happy holder

[Soolaimon]

That didn't take long. Closed at $5.
Sorry for duplicate posts.

[RTM]

One of the best for me, I think we will see $5 in the near future.
Good management, good products, good exposure, good dividends.
Steady performer of late.
Happy holder

Yes....for me as well.6% of my portfolio on top of a >200% increase. So good that I have got my darling a pair of Red-Bands which she used to mow the lawns today. Happy days. Graph of last couple of years impressive.

In fact looking at my Portfolio...all my S's are great, maybe that's my new investment rule:
SEK, SKL, SKO SKT SPK STU (thanks Rob) and SUM.
That must be up there with the Couta (or was it Beagle's) law of relativity with RYM:SUM ). Sky (thanks Mr T) has the added advantage that one can cancel ones subscription and simply follow the antics of Mr T and Ogg. on the Share Trader thread.IMG_4095.JPG

[Beagle]

Some other posters old wives tale theory has been well and truly debunked.

[nztx]

SKL has had a nice upwards run there .. the question is how much further on current dividend / earnings ?

A cushion from potential Covid symptons that other SP's have experienced must surely have it's northern limits
or maybe not for a while ..

Interesting the market sees 5 bucks while Snoop's fair value at end May was in the 2 to 2 1/2 range ..

[Snoopy]

SKL has had a nice upwards run there .. the question is how much further on current dividend / earnings ?

A cushion from potential Covid symptons that other SP's have experienced must surely have it's northern limits
or maybe not for a while ..

Interesting the market sees 5 bucks while Snoop's fair value at end May was in the 2 to 2 1/2 range ..

My post 999 suggests an appropriate value, with takeover premium included of $2.14 to $2.53. This was based on the 'Northington Partners Report' (maybe a warning sign there?) into JBS Australia taking a controlling stake in Scott technology at the end of 2015.

Looking again at that Northington report, and cross checking their valuation, mention was made of the difficulty of doing a discounted cashflow analysis because of the lumpy nature of a small number of large future projects. That limitation would not apply to SKL.

Page 31 of that report shows that an alternative valuation procedure the assessed value range of 0.65 to 0.73 times 'Enterprise Value' / 'Forward Revenue Multiples', which includes a premium for control, shows that valuation range to be well short of 'NZ Manufacturing Listed Companies' 'EV/ Future Revenue' ratio normal market value of 0.8. That figure blows out to 1.1 when adjusted to reflect transactions for control given an international benchmark.

Skellerup is very much an international company now. So I think this report is saying, from an alternative viewpoint, that a fair takeover premium share price for Skellerup would be:

($2.14 to $2.53) x (1.1 / ((0.65 + 0.73)/2)) = $3.41 to $4.03

This is well below yesterdays high of $5. But $5 is based on an historical PE ratio of 27. This is nearly double the historical long term PE ratio of 15.6 (my post 923), the actual average over the previous five years. Thus we can see the current new highs of SKL are driven almost entirely by 'PE multiple expansion'. And such 'PE expansion' is something that the actual earnings growth performance of SKL does not justify (in my view).

SNOOPY

discl: Holding SKL, but not selling down due to a lack of alternative investment options at a decent price.

[Ggcc]

Great performing share this one. As we head to their result day in 10 more days.

I guess for the positive a wonderful increase in the dividend and a great forecast for FY22, or we might get a FY22 downgrade due to the lack of shipping containers impacting their materials getting to them, so it might go up higher or drop like a lead balloon, back to the $4 mark (not banking on that).

Im ok with that as I would top up if they got that low again. Right now I'm sitting on the sideline with my modest holding.