Skellerup (SKL) Fundamentals

[percy]

phaedrus.
Thanks for the update.

[percy]

From SAM Salvus,May 2011 Manager Report."The holding in SKL was also reduced because its portfolio weighting had risen significantly owing to the strong performance of the share."

[arcticblue]

Thanks Phaedrus. I see almost all my indicator periods are double yours. Guess I still have some more learning to do, probably should have kept the times shorter in hindsight.

[Phaedrus]

AB, you can do a lot better than simply copying my SKL parameters as charted. Those were just round figure "legacy" values that I had used in a few previous SKL charts. The object here was to monitor that big 2010 uptrend with a view to generating timely sell signals when the uptrend weakened and ended.

By the end of June 2010 we had a nice clear pivot point (circled) on which to base our indicators. At this stage we could draw in an unconfirmed trendline and select indicator values appropriate for that uptrend. Note that for the RMI, default values were just fine. In August, the trendline was confirmed. Last month, the trendline was broken but this was unaccompanied by any other confirmatory Sell signals. These came a few days later when 4 more indicators all triggered on the same day.



In short, you can make an excellent case for using shorter periods than those initially shown, but I am a bit puzzled as to why you were using indicator periods that were double mine, AB. There is such a thing as being too conservative!

You don't need all this fancy TA of course. An exit when the uptrend ended and the downtrend began (when SKL made a lower Low after a lower High) would have got you out at exactly the same price and locked in a very good profit. SKL has dropped quite sharply since then.

[arcticblue]

Thanks P. Yes I think I should have fitted my time periods more closely to the trend that was in place. And I think I need to look a bit more closely at the trend, well mainly watching for the end of it.

[Lizard]

Been a couple of days that appear to have a larger buyer lately - volume on the up days and falls on low volume. Will be interesting to see if Under Surveillance caught the low there at $1.14.

From a fundamental perspective, I still see this as a "buy on dips" - except that I already have more than I need.

[percy]

Been a couple of days that appear to have a larger buyer lately - volume on the up days and falls on low volume. Will be interesting to see if Under Surveillance caught the low there at $1.14.

From a fundamental perspective, I still see this as a "buy on dips" - except that I already have more than I need.

Good volume at $1.25 today.

[percy]

Good volume at $1.25 today.

Very large $4.1 mil worth of shares crossed at $1.26 this morning.On market sale at $1.28.

[Balance]

AB, you can do a lot better than simply copying my SKL parameters as charted. Those were just round figure "legacy" values that I had used in a few previous SKL charts. The object here was to monitor that big 2010 uptrend with a view to generating timely sell signals when the uptrend weakened and ended.

By the end of June 2010 we had a nice clear pivot point (circled) on which to base our indicators. At this stage we could draw in an unconfirmed trendline and select indicator values appropriate for that uptrend. Note that for the RMI, default values were just fine. In August, the trendline was confirmed. Last month, the trendline was broken but this was unaccompanied by any other confirmatory Sell signals. These came a few days later when 4 more indicators all triggered on the same day.



In short, you can make an excellent case for using shorter periods than those initially shown, but I am a bit puzzled as to why you were using indicator periods that were double mine, AB. There is such a thing as being too conservative!

You don't need all this fancy TA of course. An exit when the uptrend ended and the downtrend began (when SKL made a lower Low after a lower High) would have got you out at exactly the same price and locked in a very good profit. SKL has dropped quite sharply since then.

Notice how it's all historical?

I have yet to see a pro-active 'buy' or 'sell' signal posted by TA.

Beautiful 20/20 hindsight - everytime.

[percy]

[

Beautiful 20/20 hindsight - everytime.[/QUOTE]

Look forward to more foresight from you?