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  1. #521
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    While you're at it you could ask them what happened to Q2 last year ? For them to say Skellerup expects "Strong increase in profit this year" on 28 October 2015 based on strong first quarter and then report a reduced profit in the first half compared to the year before Q2 financial performance must have been a real shocker !
    Then as noted above 2H performance also woefully undershot expectations so in reality it looks like they had a very strong Q1 and then Q2, Q3 and Q4 of FY16 were all poor ! Now in Q1 FY17 and beyond it looks like the currency is about 12% higher and maybe headed even higher and taking into account recent dismal performance exactly what specific factors are directors basing their confidence of profit growth in FY17 on ? Yet another good question for the annual meeting ?

    By contrast Air forecasted at the AGM last year $400m plus operating profit before tax for !h FY16, didn't need to revise it and achieved it. At the half year result they forecast $800m plus operating profit before extraordinary items and tax, didn't change the forecast and achieved it with $806m. Not too shabby for such a volatile industry and they were good last year too, so what degree of confidence can investors have that they'll achieve their forecast range this year ?, pretty good chance I reckon.

    Keep in mind the old bugbear with exporters BP, Currency. Averaged about 65 cents U.S. for most of last year, now ~ 12% higher, headwind for SKL for FY17 ? What if leading economist Tony Alexander's forecast of high 70's low 80 cents U.S. comes true in 2017, impact on SKL and other exporters ? Anyway good luck with it but know that Selwyn Cushing was buying in volume last year too, didn't translate into any meaningful lead indicator then so why should it now ?

    Conclusion - I agree there are some shocking miss's on forecasts with a range of other, shall we say politely "less than blue chip companies" and for that matter some blue chips as well, some worse than SKL but I didn't expect to see SKL to be one of the biggest forecast miss's for FY16, did you ?
    Last edited by Beagle; 01-09-2016 at 02:26 PM.

  2. #522
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    Should name this company SKELLAIRUP Some good banter and discussions BP and Roger thanks

  3. #523
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    Quote Originally Posted by iceman View Post
    Should name this company SKELLAIRUP Some good banter and discussions BP and Roger thanks
    Indeed!

    Saves reading that old obsolete AIR thread. Two for the effort of one!


  4. #524
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    So Roger - are you suggesting SKL forecast an extremely wide range (Like AirNZ) so as to hit within that range. The bottom of the Air NZ announcement forecast $400-$600m. The forecast top end is 50% higher than the bottom. Should SKL forecast something similar, say $18m and $27m?.

    Looking at the earlier post, with this forecast they wouldn't have needed any revisions.

  5. #525
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    Quote Originally Posted by Scrunch View Post
    So Roger - are you suggesting SKL forecast an extremely wide range (Like AirNZ) so as to hit within that range. The bottom of the Air NZ announcement forecast $400-$600m. The forecast top end is 50% higher than the bottom. Should SKL forecast something similar, say $18m and $27m?.

    Looking at the earlier post, with this forecast they wouldn't have needed any revisions.
    SKL's forecast of strong profit growth issued in late October well into the year. AIR to the best of my recollection have never issued a forecast this early in the financial year and aviation by its nature far more volatile than what's supposed to be a relatively stable industrial company. I for one am pleased AIR have been so forthcoming with guidance and note by way of comparison that QAN by comparison declined to give a forecast for FY17 other than noting headwinds with competition and yield.

  6. #526
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    Just a heads-up folks. SKL is being removed from the NZX50 index during the close of trading match process on Friday 16th Sept. Likely to see significant downward pressure by index tracking funds exiting this stock. I also note that ACC who have a superb track record of investment returns have been reducing their holding lately.

  7. #527
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger View Post
    Just a heads-up folks. SKL is being removed from the NZX50 index during the close of trading match process on Friday 16th Sept. Likely to see significant downward pressure by index tracking funds exiting this stock. I also note that ACC who have a superb track record of investment returns have been reducing their holding lately.
    Sounds like an excellent opportunity to buy in or top up, if you think it has merit.

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  8. #528
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    Couldn't agree more PT. I'd say its a unique / golden opportunity to top up / buy in if you think the companies optimism about its future prospects is soundly based, (I stand by my previous comments in that regard, see previous page). Fact is entry / exit from the NZX50 can have a dramatic impact on a companies share price as we saw with CVT when it was granted entry and bolted up 20%.

    On the other hand there might be a golden opportunity for those with a more neutral view "hold approach" to sell now and repurchase as part of the closing match process on Friday.

    Opportunity knocks depending on one's viewpoint. DYOR. Disc Not holding or contemplating purchasing on Friday afternoon.

  9. #529
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger View Post
    Just a heads-up folks. SKL is being removed from the NZX50 index during the close of trading match process on Friday 16th Sept. Likely to see significant downward pressure by index tracking funds exiting this stock. I also note that ACC who have a superb track record of investment returns have been reducing their holding lately.
    Hmm, yes - there was a bit of volume in the close of trading, but it didn't really seemed to have a huge impact on the SP. 1 cent down is not too bad for getting out of the NXZ 50 - isn't it? I guess it just shows that people want to own it, not just because it is in the index.
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  10. #530
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    In some ways they are a little one dimensional.. Mining.. Dairy.

    But in others; worth looking at..


    Disc. Hold.

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