Fair enough ... my spreadsheet takes averages - i.e. I should have said "the mean value of the 2017 forecast is higher than the achieved result in 2016". But yes, you are right - the actual outcome might be as well (a wee bit) lower.
According to www.4-traders.com that [a wee bit] lower is 8.4%.ie eps reducing from 10.7 cents ps to 9.8 cps.
The higher NZ $ is great for the likes of HLG and TNR and has no affect on EVO.
According to www.4-traders.com that [a wee bit] lower is 8.4%.ie eps reducing from 10.7 cents ps to 9.8 cps.
The higher NZ $ is great for the likes of HLG and TNR and has no affect on EVO.
NPAT guidance today was between $20m and $22m. They do have 192.8m shares, which calculates to a lower boundary at 10.4 cents EPS and a higher boundary at 11.4 cents.
And yes, I consider the difference between 10.7 cents (FY1016) and and a lower boundary of 10.4 cents (FY2017) as "wee".
If there are up to date company forecasts I prefer them to somewhat dated 4-trader estimates.
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"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)
NPAT guidance today was between $20m and $22m. They do have 192.8m shares, which calculates to a lower boundary at 10.4 cents EPS and a higher boundary at 11.4 cents.
And yes, I consider the difference between 10.7 cents (FY1016) and and a lower boundary of 10.4 cents (FY2017) as "wee".
If there are up to date company forecasts I prefer them to somewhat dated 4-trader estimates.
Even at that lower boundary they can still match last year's dividends and still have retained earnings to either reduce debt or aim for growth. Matching last year's dividends at the current price is an after tax return of 6%, equivalent to a taxable return of 9%. As far as I'm concerned that is better than money in the bank.
4traders just represents average analyst forecasts which I suspect will be downgraded somewhat after today's interim results.
This time last year with the release of the half year results the company gave guidance of $23m and still forecast profit growth compared to the previous year but only delivered $20.5m which was a material profit decline and a huge miss considering all they were forecasting was the second half, (and that after one and a half months of it having already transpired).
Regarding the analysts expectations apparently differing from company expectations for FY17...food for thought, maybe analysts have good reason to be conservative considering last years forecasting fiasco. http://www.4-traders.com/SKELLERUP-H...38/financials/ Note average analyst view of divvy yield this year grossed up assuming full imputation credits = 7.82% gross.
Better than money in the bank, yes as long as the SP doesn't go down, but better yield than what's on offer in other cyclical companies ?
Last edited by Beagle; 16-02-2017 at 06:00 PM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
Even at that lower boundary they can still match last year's dividends and still have retained earnings to either reduce debt or aim for growth. Matching last year's dividends at the current price is an after tax return of 6%, equivalent to a taxable return of 9%. As far as I'm concerned that is better than money in the bank.
I would be very careful adding any share to my portfolio based on a strategy of collecting dividends.
I would be very careful adding any share to my portfolio based on a strategy of collecting dividends.
Collecting dividends is only one of the factors I look at. I also look to ensure that the earnings support those dividends with some to spare, and that the dividends are not one off, but have been sustained or have grown for some time. Also that the the company is operating on a sound asset base and not overgeared.
SKL - the company that's always gunna to do wonderful things ......but financially it's doing no better now than it was 10 years or so ago .....and the share price today is inflated (as it was in 2006) above reasonable value because punters believe that these gunna things are actually going to happen.
The only way to look at SKL is for its dividend.Yes they have been pretty consistent
But today might not be the best time to buy SKL for it's dividend - a decent capital loss is possible if what has happened in the past happens again.
Here's one of those guru investor charts (forgot his name again) that shows the actual SKL share price and what it would have been if it traded on a PE of 12. Over the time period on the chart the average has been 12 nd it has for many years tracked this nicely - the times the share price has got ahead of itself it has ended in tears. And today is one of those times as SKL is on a PE of 15
Won't comment on the cyclical nature of the SKL share price
Just an update on my morbid fascination of another company that's always gunna do wonderful things but never delivers - Selwyn should recognise this and stop talking about growth (gunna things) and accept that SKL is just a steady earner with no growth over the business cycle that pays a reasonable dividend most of the time.
Last edited by winner69; 17-02-2017 at 08:04 AM.
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
I believe your post Winner hits the nail squarely on the head.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
SKL - the company that's always gunna to do wonderful things ......but financially it's doing no better now than it was 10 years or so ago .....and the share price today is inflated (as it was in 2006) above reasonable value because punters believe that these gunna things are actually going to happen.
The only way to look at SKL is for its dividend.Yes they have been pretty consistent
But today might not be the best time to buy SKL for it's dividend - a decent capital loss is possible if what has happened in the past happens again.
Here's one of those guru investor charts (forgot his name again) that shows the actual SKL share price and what it would have been if it traded on a PE of 11. Over the time period on the chart the average PE has been 11 and it has for many years tracked this nicely - the times the share price has got ahead of itself it has ended in tears. And today is one of those times as SKL is on a PE of 15
Won't comment on the cyclical nature of the SKL share price
An interesting chart. But generally when a share is on a cyclical low the PE goes up (because the earnings have gone down) and vica versa. In Other Words, when earnings are high, then the share price isn't bid up in accordance with the earnings, because shareholders know a cyclical earnings fall is coming. So is it realistic to assume a PE of 11 all through the business cycle? I prefer to interpret the chart as saying that we are now at a cyclical earnings low for SKL.
Dairy Farmers looking at profit again, but the extra cash hasn't arrived in their bank accounts yet. Iron Ore producers raking in the money again, but they need to pay down debt with the excess cash first. It will come right. Not too much to worry about where I sit, provided you didn't pay too much for your SKL shares in the first place!
SNOOPY
discl: hold SKL
Last edited by Snoopy; 16-02-2017 at 11:19 PM.
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Originally Posted by BlackPeter
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Or assume an 11% eternal growth rate
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