Skellerup (SKL) Fundamentals

[winner69]

Hi Snoopy
I only look at cash, (owner earnings), can't remember the last time I looked at a PE.

Believe it or not RBD had owner earnings of 42m last year, (thats a 21.5% cash yield), and a cash return on invested capital of 78%.

I can only estimate SKL, (full year not out), owner earnings 18m, cash return on invested capital 13%, thats a cash yield today of 13.2%

Sure we can't compare business models but we don't have to, just take the one offering the biggest discount.

RBD looks set for a bumper year. What are they going to do with all that cash?

Acid man .... where do you get that $42m owners earnings from .... I reckon it to be $25m-$26m

Isn't it interesting that for many years (up to 2007) 'owners earnings' were pretty pathetic (sometimes negative) and the shareprice languished .... but as soon as 'owners earnings' have got more respectable the shareprice is looking a lot healthier.

There is a link between PE and 'owners earnings' so don't discount off hand PE ratios

[h2so4]

Earnings is the starting point. + depreciation + changes to working capital - capital expenses = owner earnings. Any ratio with E in it is manipulative.

[winner69]

Earnings is the starting point. + depreciation + changes to working capital - capital expenses = owner earnings. Any ratio with E in it is manipulative.

Surely there is an E in your formula

My formula is operating cash flow ($38.7m) less capex ($13.1m) gives $25.6m for 2010

[winner69]

I'll stick to my way of ca;culating owners earnings

So RBD st sbout $35m to Feb this year and likely to be more in 2011 ----- I reckon SKL to be about $22m this year and again more next year

EV of RBD about $250m so trading about 10 times owners earnings

EV of SKL about $180m so trading at about 9 times owners earnings

Not much in it really is their h2so4 on a valuation basis .... all depends on who you has the best prospects on delivering on the promises implied in the share price eh

[h2so4]

I'll stick to my way of ca;culating owners earnings

So RBD st sbout $35m to Feb this year and likely to be more in 2011 ----- I reckon SKL to be about $22m this year and again more next year

EV of RBD about $250m so trading about 10 times owners earnings

EV of SKL about $180m so trading at about 9 times owners earnings

Not much in it really is their h2so4 on a valuation basis .... all depends on who you has the best prospects on delivering on the promises implied in the share price eh

Yes your right.

[h2so4]

I'll stick to my way of ca;culating owners earnings

So RBD st sbout $35m to Feb this year and likely to be more in 2011 ----- I reckon SKL to be about $22m this year and again more next year

EV of RBD about $250m so trading about 10 times owners earnings

EV of SKL about $180m so trading at about 9 times owners earnings

Not much in it really is their h2so4 on a valuation basis .... all depends on who you has the best prospects on delivering on the promises implied in the share price eh

What is st?..."so RBD st....."

[Snow Leopard]

Lot of TALK, but is anybody putting their MONEY on it?

disc: not me

[h2so4]

I can't get funds to NZ quick enough.

[percy]

good article by Jenny Ruth headed "Sunnier outlook for gumboots maker" in today's Sunday Star Times.I could never figure out how this company ever got it's act together,but this article makes it pretty clear Sir Selwyn Cushing who owns 6.5% became chairman in Dec 2007,and David Mair,who joined the board in Nov 2006,may be the reasons.Of interest is the comment"Mair has taken a much more hand-on approach to Skellerup than most directors do".Looks as though Mair may become the new managing director.Now we can understand Donald Stewart's "retirement"and better outlook for the company.Also of interest is the fact that director John Thompson was the founder of Gulf Rubber.I am left with the thought ,put in good people you will get good results.

[Lizard]

Result beat forecast with NPAT $11.9m or $14.5m before abnormals. Despite some caution in comments (as per most global commentaries), forecast is NPAT $16-$17m for 2011, i.e. forward PE of 8.5 at current sell of 74cps.