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  1. #21
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    hi novice
    ctp up 31%
    ctpo up38%
    you must be happy
    it looks like a breakout to me
    there was a selloff mid day and i expect profit taking before close.more to come here,cheers pago

  2. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by pago View Post
    hi novice
    ctp up 31%
    ctpo up38%
    you must be happy
    it looks like a breakout to me
    there was a selloff mid day and i expect profit taking before close.more to come here,cheers pago
    Hi Pago,

    I cetainly am - it is nice to be in positive territory. I bought this @ $0.25 on 3/07/08 & it went under that on 8/07/08 & I've never been ahead until now. May it continue :-)
    For no valid reason I get the feeling that Surprise might be the breakthrough - probably just the effect of the name.

  3. #23
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    Hi folks,

    CTP ... expecting a positive time cycle around 16-17022011.

    Though confidence in CTP management remains low, the natural
    time cycles cannot be ignored ...

    have a great week

    paul



    =====
    Disclaimer: yogi makes no claim to be a licenced investment advisor.

    Always consult your licenced advisor or other financial professional expert.

  4. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by yogi-in-oz View Post


    Though confidence in CTP management remains low,

    =====
    This has my vote as the understatement of the year !! :-)

  5. #25
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    Glory Hallelujah - it's been a long wait but positive territory at last. I'll probably wait & see if the reputed further JV occurs this quarter before selling.

  6. #26
    Senior Member upside_umop's Avatar
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    Bumping this thread hoping for some positive discussion. A few clouds have hung over CTP from ousting JH and the board recommending a scheme of arrangement from MacQ but Richard Cottee has been setting this up very nicely.

    - Cashflow positive
    - Upgrading Mereenie plant capacity
    - Appraising for further gas in a number of propsects
    - Aiming to supply substantial volumes of gas into the Northern Gas Pipeline under reformed prices
    - Santos farmin work program still in progress (seismic)
    - Recently won QLD CSG permit to supply domestic market and have partnership with Incitec Pivot who are providing funding / CPT the operating skills. This permit is similar in nature to what SXY got awarded.
    - Have c. $80m in debt and c. $25m cash on hand to fund upcoming 4 well drilling program.
    - Market cap c. $120m and EV c. $185m
    - Has previously been targeted by MacQ (above through SoA) so assets are "good". If RC gets his way and proves right, CTP will be much more valuable than when MacQ tried to take them over.
    By the way - it's upside_down, not upside_umop

  7. #27
    Senior Member upside_umop's Avatar
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    Great webinar with Richard Cottee.

    He sounds very positive and addresses a number of areas including most of the points above.
    He also gets asked what he thinks of the share price his response was "if we aren't 30 - 40 cps by the end of the year, we won't be independent."

    Current share price 18 cents (up > 100% in last few months).

    By the way - it's upside_down, not upside_umop

  8. #28
    Senior Member upside_umop's Avatar
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    CTP still progressing and on track to be producing what will (from what I can see) the highest flowing BOE / EV on the ASX next month.

    A few updates:
    - Richard Cottee is no longer MD. It's a little bit murky what went on, but the transition to his lieutenant (Leon Devaney) appears to have been smooth.
    - Mereenie plant upgrade has gone over budget and resulted in more borrowing from MQ.
    - Drilling has produced one dud and one success, which should underpin phase 2 of production increase.
    - NGP operational next month, tripling gas sales. Will deliver 42 TJ/d net to CTP (phase 1). Yes, big numbers!
    - Santos has committed to the next stage of the farm-in EP112 and will Dukas, a multi-TCF target in Q1 CY19. Santos 70%, CTP 30%. It won't proceed with the other permits and keep it's working interest at it's current level.
    - QLD CSG drilling in 2019, $20m carried by IPL.
    - Will have c.$90m in debt at the end of the quarter. Current market cap is c.$100m so it's definitely considered "highly leveraged." This increased financing with MQ, to me is the biggest risk to CTP. MQ previously tried to take CTP over and could they pull the rug out from under them? Once CTP starts flowing gas and paying down principal, it should derisk the play and ultimately lead to a higher equity valuation and therefore less risk. It then almost becomes a self fulfilling cycle...and is a great time to be a shareholder when this happens. Hopefully we get to see it...

    Current share price 14 cents.
    By the way - it's upside_down, not upside_umop

  9. #29
    Senior Member upside_umop's Avatar
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    Encouraging signs at Dukas. Too much pressure in the salt seal for Santos' big rig so they have had to suspend... gas composition not known yet, but inert gases were recorded. Just to put this in perspective, this is a helium targeted structure with estimates of c5% helium (based on surrounding exploration). Helium is worth 50 - 100 times more than gas. Yes, that makes the 5% of He potential worth 2.5 - 5 times the worth of the 95% of the methane!

    Worth having a few in the drawer in case this pulls off....I have way too many. But it's supported by strong cashflows, current negotiations of a new LT GSA and positive exploration in a CSG JV with IPL.

    DYOR but CTP has changed it's spots and could move up quickly.
    By the way - it's upside_down, not upside_umop

  10. #30
    Senior Member upside_umop's Avatar
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    And the shareprice jumped 20% on bullish news on their Range CSG JV with IPL resource estimates improvements. I didn't think it was worth that much but it looks like the market is pricing in bullish. CTP is fast developing as a well diversified, growth value o&g stock with three prongs holding it up:

    - Core central gas fields supplying the east coast gas markets at elevated prices. 3 - 5 year GSA due to be signed this quarter at even further improved sales prices (as indicated).
    - Dukas helium drilling - the drilling had to be suspended due to too much pressure in the seal. Nice problem to have, let's see how it holds.
    - Range CSG JV - Per above, very positive indications on early pilot drilling...which i might add has all been paid for by IPL.

    Is anyone else here?
    By the way - it's upside_down, not upside_umop

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