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  1. #6371
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    Quote Originally Posted by mistaTea View Post
    What's it worth? Two takes

    So what is Vocus' NZ operation worth?

    A Jarden note issued after the IPO was confirmed, says, "Given the mix of retail and enterprise operations, we value Vocus NZ on a 6.0x FY2021 estimated ebitda
    multiple, which implies a total valuation of A$416m (or A$0.66/share).

    But the wealth manager sees a focus on Vocus' enterprise and wholesale assets. That leads it to the following kicker:
    "Given the extensive fibre assets, we suspect the company will seek to benchmark the business against fibre operators globally, who trade on an average multiple of around 9.5x.
    "Applying this multiple to the Vocus NZ ebitda results in a valuation of around A$660m or A$1.05/share - 40 per cent more than our valuation for the business."
    But although Jarden finds that too heady, it notes a valuation at that level would be "broadly consistent with the Spark NZ trading multiple of around 9x."
    A$416m? Just cage...



    Vocus NZ is worth $200m, tops.

  2. #6372
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    The Vocus brands are crap.

    Everyone knows Orcon and Slingshot are so 2000's. It's deader than Sky but at least Sky has a strong cashcow satellite base that will continue to deliver over the medium term.

    Terrible move if Sky loads up on debt and buys them out.

  3. #6373
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    To take over Vocus raises the spectre of another SKY capital raising.

  4. #6374
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    Quote Originally Posted by airedale View Post
    To take over Vocus raises the spectre of another SKY capital raising.
    Why?

    Taking over Vocus would rocket sky’s EBITDA to $180M over night.

    Provided the asking price was not outrageous, the banks would lend for an investment like this. With interest rates so low - a deal could be done.

  5. #6375
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    My guess is that there's no appetite for a Vocus NZ IPO, especially if the vendors are selling down 100%. No way are they going to get 9x EBITA.

    A Sky/Vocus NZ merger is a good idea but only if it's 1:1 or perhaps a small cash amount to vendors of approx ~$150m or so. ie, the new merged company would have a small amount of debt.

    Later on, a merger with 2dgrees would be idea to create a massive media company.

  6. #6376
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    Quote Originally Posted by mistaTea View Post
    Why?

    Taking over Vocus would rocket sky’s EBITDA to $180M over night.

    Provided the asking price was not outrageous, the banks would lend for an investment like this. With interest rates so low - a deal could be done.
    It's a good idea, at the right price.

    Vocus vendors are dreaming though. They're in La La La La Land.

  7. #6377
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    Quote Originally Posted by airedale View Post
    To take over Vocus raises the spectre of another SKY capital raising.
    Could you imagine?

    NZRU already been run over by the Sky bus. Now they're going to piss on their corpses.


  8. #6378
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ogg View Post
    Could you imagine?

    NZRU already been run over by the Sky bus. Now they're going to piss on their corpses.
    Why on earth are you so aggressively anti now?

    I can’t possibly imagine what’s changed!
    Last edited by mistaTea; 23-11-2020 at 12:56 PM.

  9. #6379
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    Quote Originally Posted by mistaTea View Post
    Who on earth are you so aggressively anti now?

    I can’t possibly imagine what’s changed!
    Like what Dlownz said, the takeover isn't happening.

    Do you have another $1.5m for the inevitable 2.83 for 1 placement for Vocus?


  10. #6380
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    Morningside update on Vocus NZ IPO:

    Vocus Decides to Free Kiwi

    "The only surprise about Vocus' decision to spin off its New Zealand unit via an initial public offering, or IPO, is that it has taken so long. The business has been on the sale block since October 2017 and the current management has made it clear it is noncore to the group.

    The fundamentals of the kiwi unit are supportive of an IPO. It is on track to deliver EBITDA CAGR of almost 5% to our NZD 71 million forecast in fiscal 2021, from fiscal 2018, and margins have consistently been around 16.6%. The external environment is also conducive. There is insatiable investor appetite for IPOs, especially of companies with any whiff of technology to their business, or are catering to the COVID-19-induced demand for "Doing Things at Home." As a key broadband provider in New Zealand with an extensive fibre network, narrow-moat-rated Vocus has a cogent selling point. The steady earnings profile and the conservative capital structure (we estimate net debt/EBITDA of around 1.5) should also ensure a reasonable payout, adding a further "yield" angle to the investment proposition.

    All proceeds from the IPO are likely to go to reducing Vocus' AUD 979 million net debt. We believe management prefers to divest 100% of its interest. The implied equity value of the New Zealand unit in our unchanged AUD 3.50 fair value estimate for Vocus is AUD 0.60 per share, or AUD 374 million (NZD 393 million). That equates to 7.1 times our forecast EBITDA for the Kiwi unit, and assumes 1.5 net debt/EBITDA. Every incremental 1 times EBITDA multiple achieved in the IPO, above the 7.1 currently implied in our modelling, would lift our Vocus fair value estimate by AUD 0.10 per share.

    We look forward to more details on the IPO which is expected to be complete by June 2021. But the decision on the New Zealand unit is further evidence Vocus is well and truly past the "fix and repair" stage, and is on the "shed and grow" phase of its journey, with network services clearly the core unit longer-term."

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