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  1. #11
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    quote:Originally posted by ratkin

    spam
    I thought this was meant to be a forum that discussed shares and associated companies, not a vehicle to read SPAM and self-promotion

  2. #12
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    No-one has commented on the announcement of TVNZ's digital platforms launch and the impact this might have on Sky.

    My reading of it is there was a little residual uncertainty about what TVNZ might have up its sleeve, but the announcement this week has removed that uncertainty. It appears the TVNZ digital service will be no threat to Sky whatever:

    24 hour news channel: Will be mainly local content with bulletins on the hour (comment: there isn't enough news to fill 1 1-hour bulletin a day at present -- how to fill 24??)

    Sports channel: Sky has content sewn up -- what will they show?

    NZ Herald reported (without denial from TVNZ) that there will be a high proportion of repeats on the digital platform.

    There will still be a cost barrier (albeit low -- about $200 to buy the decoder).

    The digesting of this information may explain the recent rise in SKT's share price.

    Marriage isn't a word. It's a sentence

  3. #13
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    quote:Originally posted by ratkin

    spam
    Albert and Ratkin,

    That's fine. Accepted.
    But please feel free to post your own in depth analysis of any publicity listed NZ company including your valuation using DCF or any other methodology preferably including your mathematical workings.

    You can also be brave enough to stick your neck out and give a recommendation and let others comment...

    Any listed company will do...
    metro / Sky Tower

  4. #14
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    Now that we know that Sky's new D1 Satellite's transponders are not set up for New Zealand excusively and they are now broadcasting Sky services over Australia (now on Aus/NZ transponders). Do you think the share price is high due to increased chance of fraud?
    On a winner

  5. #15
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    quote:Originally posted by ds

    Now that we know that Sky's new D1 Satellite's transponders are not set up for New Zealand excusively and they are now broadcasting Sky services over Australia (now on Aus/NZ transponders). Do you think the share price is high due to increased chance of fraud?
    No.

    I can not follow your line of reasoning here.
    Presumably if you want to watch the pay NZ channels you need to pay a NZ subscription independent of where in the world you are.
    om mani peme hum

  6. #16
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    Yes, but the signal was just NZ's on B1 but now with the Aussies able to receive the signal maybe there will be a greater chance of someone cracking the encryption. Like in the UK with BskyB.
    On a winner

  7. #17
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    From NZ Herald Saturday 18th November

    Brian Gaynor: Sky to gain more ground over TVNZ
    Saturday November 18, 2006

    The Government's decision to give TVNZ $79 million for its new free-to-air digital services was called a "bail-out" by CanWest chief executive Brent Impey.

    Impey is not far from the truth as CanWest MediaWorks and Sky Network Television have given TVNZ a hiding in recent years in terms of ratings, revenue and profitability.

    Most investors believe the rout of TVNZ will continue, particularly as far as Sky is concerned.

    Rugby has played a major role in Sky's success and the pay-TV operator looks more like the All Blacks in Lyon last weekend while TVNZ resembles the French.

    The company is superbly managed and has more television channels than All Black squad members whereas TVNZ has a number of high-profile individuals but is not putting it together as a team.

    Meanwhile TV3, which had a dreadful start, is winning more and more games each season under Impey's stewardship.

    The three major television groups have published their 2006 annual reports and the financial data in the accompanying table gives a clear indication of their relative performance.

    The first point to note is that Sky is the country's biggest television company with revenue of $549 million compared with $409.8 million for TVNZ and $254.3 million for CanWest (CanWest had television revenue of $143.6 million).

    This development is relatively new as TVNZ's television revenue exceeded that of Sky TV until 2003.

    The second point to note is that the two free-to-air stations, CanWest (TV3 and C4) and TVNZ (TV One and TV2) generate most of their revenue from advertising whereas Sky is heavily reliant on subscriptions.

    TVNZ is losing ground in terms of advertising as it suffered a 2.7 per cent decline in revenue from this source in the June 2006 year whereas CanWest's television revenue increased slightly.

    TVNZ's major problem is that its costs are growing far more quickly than its revenue. Since 2003 advertising revenue has increased only 9.8 per cent or $30.0 million whereas programme costs, its biggest expense, have risen 25.4 per cent or $47.5 million (TVNZ received $29.4 million of government funding in 2006, mainly for programmes).

    Sky has a relatively low level of advertising revenue with Prime Television (acquired on February 8, 2006) contributing $7.1 million to the June 2006 year figure of $47.3 million. The backbone to Sky is its subscription revenue, which has risen by 38.4 per cent or $129.9 million since 2003.

    Over the same three-year period the group's programme costs have increased by only 5.7 per cent or $9.6 million.

    Chief executive John Fellet is confident that subscriber numbers will continue to grow and he told the recent annual meeting that Sky is installed in 42 per cent of New Zealand homes whereas the pay-per-view penetration rate in the United States is nearly 90 per cent.

    Fellet often jokes that rugby is a major key to Sky TV's success and the best outcome for his company would be a 52-week season.

    Sky had operating earnings or earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (ebitda) of $246.5 million for the June 2006 year, substantially ahead of both CanWest and TVNZ. The pay-per-view company had an ebitda margin of 44.9 per cent compared with 25.8 per cent for CanWest and a mere 8.3 per cent for TVNZ. CanWest's television margin was 24.9 per cent and 30 per cent for radio.

    Sky's operating margin has steadily increased over the past few years while TVNZ's has declined. CanWest's ebitda margin expanded in 2004 and 2005 but fell in the latest year because of the difficult advertising market.

    TVNZ is in a difficult situation because it is caught between two conflicting objectives, namely the need to achieve a commercial return and its charter requirements. This makes it extremely difficult to compete with a powerful pay-per-view operator and a lean and mean CanWest.

    RTE, the Irish national broadcaster with a similar conflict between comm
    metro / Sky Tower

  8. #18
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    It is one thing to provide information and spread ideas about stocks
    Refer to my thread "ryman too boring to talk about" and you will see i have posted my views before

    In your case you give good info however you spoil it by advertising your newsletter on the post. Clearly you are trying to gather customers, this is the real reason for your posting, not the desire to inform

  9. #19
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    why buy or sell on other people advise, put the numbers on warren buffet formula....simple...as per WB formula I value this stock at 410c

  10. #20
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    Thanks Hiawatha. The Herald article I read suggested there would be sport content on TVNZ digital, so I blame my sources!

    Ratkin: Get over yourself. If you have whinges about Metro's posts, alert them to the administrator. Read the terms and conditions, you will find his posts are perfectly acceptable. Try saying something positive (about anything!).

    Pimpit: That is as may be, however Mr Market currently rates this stock at 595 (or thereabouts). I favour it for a number of reasons:
    Near-monopoly in pay TV market
    Dominant player in overall TV market (see Gaynor analysis above)
    Outstanding management (see record over last 5 years)
    Heavy cash flows and low relative debt levels
    Benign regulatory environment (by comparison see TVNZ, strangled by its charter)
    Excellent ebit margins and reducing churn
    operating risk profile: low.

    I rate it a good medium-long term hold and it will be staying in my portfolio for a wee while yet!
    Marriage isn't a word. It's a sentence

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