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  1. #6841
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    Quote Originally Posted by mistaTea View Post
    I noticed more shiny new satellite dishes on rooftops in my fibre-only suburb during my walk today.

    What do we reckon total subs will be as at end of December? I expect streaming grew too, so maybe around 1.1M?

    If the average subscriber (streaming and satellite) pays sky ~$50/month that would be revenue of $660M. Add in some advertising revenue and it’s not far off projected revenue for the full year.

    It’s a volume game now. Margins and much smaller than they used to be per customer, so gotta get the numbers up - and then keep them up (Sky Broadband should help a lot with the latter goal).
    Sky is still strong around regional NZ. When i went around regional NZ during the Christmas break i realised how **** internet is outside major cities like Auckland. Perhaps this forms a market for sky to tap into with their Broadband. They should act quick, they are taking forever with their Broadband roll out.

  2. #6842
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    Quote Originally Posted by mistaTea View Post
    I noticed more shiny new satellite dishes on rooftops in my fibre-only suburb during my walk today.

    What do we reckon total subs will be as at end of December? I expect streaming grew too, so maybe around 1.1M?

    If the average subscriber (streaming and satellite) pays sky ~$50/month that would be revenue of $660M. Add in some advertising revenue and it’s not far off projected revenue for the full year.

    It’s a volume game now. Margins and much smaller than they used to be per customer, so gotta get the numbers up - and then keep them up (Sky Broadband should help a lot with the latter goal).
    Would be surprised if it's north of 1m.

    The streaming churn would be high.

    Advertising revenue should be better but that makes up hardly anything.

    It's all about satellite retention, write downs and Sophies first report to shareholders outlining her plan.

    I'm hoping that the ComCom decision is made on/or before half year results. Then an announcement regarding a "Strategic review" of the business, AKA we're on the market to the highest bidder!

  3. #6843
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ogg View Post
    Would be surprised if it's north of 1m.

    The streaming churn would be high.

    Advertising revenue should be better but that makes up hardly anything.

    It's all about satellite retention, write downs and Sophies first report to shareholders outlining her plan.

    I'm hoping that the ComCom decision is made on/or before half year results. Then an announcement regarding a "Strategic review" of the business, AKA we're on the market to the highest bidder!
    Do you have a deadline for the takeover offer good sir? My personal view is if it doesn't come this year it probably never will.

  4. #6844
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    Quote Originally Posted by Quantitative Easing View Post
    Do you have a deadline for the takeover offer good sir? My personal view is if it doesn't come this year it probably never will.
    I think Ogg is best placed to give specifics on the takeover dates.

    I am not predicting a takeover - just pointing out that I think one is much more likely this year if it is to happen.

  5. #6845
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    Quote Originally Posted by Quantitative Easing View Post
    Do you have a deadline for the takeover offer good sir? My personal view is if it doesn't come this year it probably never will.
    Looking back, rumors of a takeover didn't circulate until early 2019, when the stock took the first big hit. This was a few months after Sky UK was sold off for a huge sum. This was the key point when a takeover should of happened but...

    A takeover didn't happen in 2019. Perhaps because Martin had a "streaming plan", or perhaps because the stock kept going down, thus making a valuation difficult.

    TV3 was then sold off during the second half of 2019. Sky at this stage was securing the rugby rights.

    Balance sheet problem arose in early 2020 (after securing the rugby rights, RugbyPass and Lightbox). This is when Covid hit, and killed everything. All corporate activity was halted globally. Sky had to do the mother of all placements, effectivity recapitalising the company.

    Covid is/has now passing. OSB is being sold off (the one sticking point to a takeover), the ComCom has delayed things because of a few 'one man band' camera operators complaining. Martin bailed, Blair is off in the woods somewhere. Wonderwomen (Sophie) has come in to save the day.

    Right now, we should be back to early 2019, where things went sour. Hopefully early 2021 is "game time" and a takeover/bidding war starts.

  6. #6846
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    I also believe the real reason why Martin left was because he was pushed out and/or was had to accept a huge paycut, which he refused.

    His "streaming plan" has basically been a huge failure.

    RugbyPass will likely be written off.

    I think Neon/Lightbox days are numbered. Likely requiring more capital to securing key content rights.

    I believe OSB is being sold off for the sole reason to securing a takeover/merger. Once this is done it should be all go but don't expect a huge "Sky UK Bidding War".

  7. #6847
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    Who said aussies love Sky - They are down 6.7% today

  8. #6848
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ogg View Post
    I also believe the real reason why Martin left was because he was pushed out and/or was had to accept a huge paycut, which he refused.

    His "streaming plan" has basically been a huge failure.

    RugbyPass will likely be written off.

    I think Neon/Lightbox days are numbered. Likely requiring more capital to securing key content rights.

    I believe OSB is being sold off for the sole reason to securing a takeover/merger. Once this is done it should be all go but don't expect a huge "Sky UK Bidding War".
    Yes they just purchased Lightbox, merged it with their existing service and are in the process of replatforming the app because it’s “days are numbered”. Hahaha.

    NEON is an integral part of the future. There are lots of people who do not want to buy all of Sky’s content but are happy with a Netflix-type offering. NEON serves that market and provides Sky with revenue they would otherwise not get.

    By the way - NEON, Sky Sport NOW and Sky GO are all being moved to a new technology stack for simplicity and cost savings. Streaming is the future, and before long the majority of Sky’s customer base will consume their product primarily via one of their streaming services.

    Margins are down now so the ‘cash cow’ satellite business cannot be relied upon for the future now. Lower cost streaming services are needed, but they generate less profit per subscriber than satellite - so we need more subscribers.

    The good news is NEON is still profitable at $9.99 (what Spark customers pay). And even more profitable for direct consumers ($13.95 per month).

    On average we probably only make a profit of $30 per customer a year. But it’s a volume game. If we built to 500k subs that would be a profit of $15M (or half of the best case profit expected for FY21). If NEON continues to keep good content and a great UX, do I think Sky could build to 1 in 4 households being prepared to pay $13.95 per month? Yes I do.

    Then do the same reasoning for Sky Sport NOW, Sky GO stand-alone and the ‘hard core’ hundreds of thousands of satellite subs that won’t budge and you can see how Sky will be able to increase GAAP earnings over time.

    Add Broadband - they might begin as a loss leader, but even if they only made an average profit of $3/month...and even if they can only convince 250k people to switch over...that would still be an extra $9M of GAAP earnings a year.

    ARPU is going to be less important moving forward as the customer base continues to spread across the different services. Profit margins are key...and subscriber growth...
    Last edited by mistaTea; 15-01-2021 at 01:15 PM.

  9. #6849
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    Put another way...

    If Sky can build to a total of 1.5M subs across all of their services...

    Even if they can only make a profit of $3/month on average per sub...that is still annualised GAAP earnings of $54M.

    It’s a VOLUME game now. The whole mindset has changed since John Fellet’s days when it didn’t matter that they only had ~40% penetration because their margins were so high.

  10. #6850
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    Quote Originally Posted by Quantitative Easing View Post
    Sky is still strong around regional NZ. When i went around regional NZ during the Christmas break i realised how **** internet is outside major cities like Auckland. Perhaps this forms a market for sky to tap into with their Broadband. They should act quick, they are taking forever with their Broadband roll out.
    Skys Broadband service will just be reselling over the existing broadband infrastructure owned by Chorus - they won't be adding anything new so impossible they could offer anything better for Rural users.

    Starlink (owned by Elon Musks SpaceX) is preparing for a NZ launch soon and will offer high speed internet access via satellite anywhere in the country - this will be massive turning point for rural users who will have decent access to online streaming platforms at a usable level for the first time.

    Rural broadband is more a threat than an opportunity for Sky in my opinion. Currently rural users only have Sky as an option for video programming - after Starlink arrives all those customers have the same choice of content providers as city dwellers do.
    Last edited by LaserEyeKiwi; 15-01-2021 at 02:27 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by LaserEyeKiwi View Post
    Skys Broadband service will just be reselling over the existing broadband infrastructure owned by Chorus - they won't be adding anything new so impossible they could offer anything better for Rural users.

    Starlink (owned by Elon Musks SpaceX) is preparing for a NZ launch soon and will offer high speed internet access via satellite anywhere in the country - this will be massive turning point for rural users who will have decent access to online streaming platforms at a usable level for the first time.

    Rural broadband is more a threat than an opportunity for Sky in my opinion. Currently rural users only have Sky as an option for video programming - after Starlink arrives all those customers have the same choice of content providers as city dwellers do.
    You're right about Chorus

    But Starlink...


  12. #6852
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ogg View Post
    You're right about Chorus

    But Starlink...

    why do you doubt - beta testers of starlink are getting speeds of up to 200mbs, above starlinks advertised normal expected rates of 50-150 mbs.

    Thats faster than what my fibre connection in wellington normally gets.

  13. #6853
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    Quote Originally Posted by LaserEyeKiwi View Post
    why do you doubt - beta testers of starlink are getting speeds of up to 200mbs, above starlinks advertised normal expected rates of 50-150 mbs.

    Thats faster than what my fibre connection in wellington normally gets.
    If starlink is such an imminent and obvious threat why have Chorus shares not crashed?

  14. #6854
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  15. #6855
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    Quote Originally Posted by ba9 View Post
    Can’t access the article. What’s the summary?

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  17. #6857
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    To the highest bidder.

  18. #6858
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    Quote Originally Posted by Alpha View Post
    To the highest bidder.
    Ogg just needs Sky to be...Discovered...if ya catch my drift.

  19. #6859
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    Plenty of advice from Jarden on todays businessdesk.co.nz

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