SKT Sky Network Television Limited.

[Ogg]

A nearly debt free, profitable, dividend paying company like Kogan.com is up well over 100%, with a tailwind behind them and demand increasing and their distribution method becoming just as popular as it is cost efficient.

Kogan, just lol.

Kogan was OK 10 years ago but only because it gained a huge following as people used it to avoided GST. It's a dodgy company with dodgy owners. They went public so founders could sell down which they have been doing. It continues to do all these acquisitions and horizontal moves into new product lines but it's all an excuse for lack of actual growth. Total bubble and receipt for disaster.

[blackcap]

Seems like UBS has been shorting a few....

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/353928

[Stranger_Danger]

Kogan, just lol.

Kogan was OK 10 years ago but only because it gained a huge following as people used it to avoided GST. It's a dodgy company with dodgy owners. They went public so founders could sell down which they have been doing. It continues to do all these acquisitions and horizontal moves into new product lines but it's all an excuse for lack of actual growth. Total bubble and receipt for disaster.

I actually agree with you. Kogan was carefully chosen as my example as it is NOT perfect. When comparing against Sky TV, it would be cruel to use Netflix or Apple or something.

I entered Kogan at under $5.00. In my analysis, I had just as many "cons" as "pros" - record of insider selling, record of CEO being a spinner, Amazon threat, technology stack dated etc etc.

However, the positives coupled with the likely operating and competitive environment (eg "the world outside", which is why Sky is doomed) along with a reasonable price allowed a purchase.

My return expectation was 100% over five years, or 15% per annum compounded annually, plus dividends.

Some aspects of my thesis started to play out (or at least be noticed and priced in) far quicker than expected.

The CEO and 2IC then gave themselves a truly disgraceful options package using the Covid19 "panic" period to gift themselves a swag of options at $5.30 or so when the share price was nearly $9.00, the only performance criteria being to stick around, redirecting a lot of the future upside to themselves.

The momentum crowd continued to bid the shares up. I exited this week at over $10.00, my return expectations more than met very quickly, and the "key man" risk proving out even earlier than expected!

Kogan.com is NOT perfect - miles off it. But you could construct a list of rational pros that allowed a purchase.

I simply can't do that with Sky.

P.S See how I sold when an identified risk showed up? You're allowed to sell, Sky TV folk...

[Quantitative Easing]

Mind you ASX runs on sentiment rather than fundamentals. Look at Afterpay and other BPNL stocks.

[mistaTea]

I simply can't do that with Sky.

Well, it is a good thing you don't own any SKT shares then. Nothing for you to get hot and bothered about mate.

P.S See how I sold when an identified risk showed up? You're allowed to sell, Sky TV folk...

My underlying thesis for Sky has not changed. In fact the company's financial performance and subscriber growth has exceeded my assumptions (so far).

Of course, if the 'story' for Sky changes for the negative then I will sell my shares. Even if that means I have to realise a loss. Just like Buffett did recently with the airlines.

[k14]

Seems like UBS has been shorting a few....

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/353928

Can you explain how that indicates they are shorting? Reading the notice it states their holding has gone up?

[Cadalac123]

Well, it is a good thing you don't own any SKT shares then. Nothing for you to get hot and bothered about mate.



My underlying thesis for Sky has not changed. In fact the company's financial performance and subscriber growth has exceeded my assumptions (so far).

Of course, if the 'story' for Sky changes for the negative then I will sell my shares. Even if that means I have to realise a loss. Just like Buffett did recently with the airlines.

Free cash flow generating company with heavy revenue and cash
Now debt lid significantly reduced albeit by screwing over shareholders

I can actually see some value here especially at 12c

[blackcap]

Can you explain how that indicates they are shorting? Reading the notice it states their holding has gone up?

Sorry should clarify, they themselves maybe not shorting but allowing stock to be used for shorting... (borrowing rights)

page 3 etc

[Ogg]

Can you explain how that indicates they are shorting? Reading the notice it states their holding has gone up?

It's not actually shorting.

The parent company has bought stock in the 12c placement.

It has then lent the stock out, to a borrow, at interest. Who? Nobody knows.

You can only assume it's being sold on market as the volume of the stock surges, and the price drops by millions.

You get 4 business days plus a trading day before you have to report anything to ASIC. Throw in a weekend and then report at the end of the last business day and it's more than a week before anybody knows what the hell is going on.

That's not the worst part. The borrower and lender are related. It's like doing the above but with your Dad.

[Ogg]

O look, the stock is up, what a surprise.