sharetrader
Page 324 of 346 FirstFirst ... 224274314320321322323324325326327328334 ... LastLast
Results 6,461 to 6,480 of 6915
  1. #6461
    Member
    Join Date
    Oct 2019
    Posts
    299

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by ados_nz View Post
    Closer to 30c IMO but agree with your trigger points... Sans any Vocus play.
    No point going for vocus.
    Create your own value and business. Rather than buy something then find it was overvalued the keep writing off good will. At least this starts from scratch so it can only grow and not get smaller.
    The existing customer base is something sine company's can only dream about when offering new services.

  2. #6462
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Oct 2017
    Posts
    1,488

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Dlownz View Post
    No point going for vocus.
    Create your own value and business. Rather than buy something then find it was overvalued the keep writing off good will. At least this starts from scratch so it can only grow and not get smaller.
    The existing customer base is something sine company's can only dream about when offering new services.
    Damn right. Vocus would more than likely be a bad move as they would over pay to get it.

    1M subs - Christ, most companies could only dream of having that kind of penetration.

    And remember, 1M subs will be the equivalent of over 2M New Zealanders that their product can reach 24/7, 365 days a year. Thatís a lot of people to reach out to for marketing new offers.

  3. #6463
    Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2020
    Location
    Sydney
    Posts
    280

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by mistaTea View Post
    I agree with anyone who says I am going to be filthy rich soon...
    Haha! Absolutely.

  4. #6464
    Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2020
    Location
    Sydney
    Posts
    280

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Dlownz View Post
    We will soon find out I guess.
    Bumps in share price will be
    1. Half year results
    2 conformation of osb sale
    3 Broadband launch

    Share price after all these bumps 22 cents
    What's everyone's else's thinking.
    Iím close to what Ados thinks too now which is circa 30c. The shares are worth more but I think itís going to take a bit longer for the market to appreciate Skyís turnaround story. Perhaps 33.5 which is halfway between Forsythe Barr and Fat Phrophets target.

  5. #6465
    Member
    Join Date
    Oct 2016
    Posts
    40

    Default

    Completely agree and I hope there isn't a play here by Sky. But like all good OGG takeover theories it can't be completely ruled out yet.

  6. #6466
    Member
    Join Date
    Oct 2020
    Posts
    70

    Default

    After broadband release, OSB sell off and half year results, I would like to see around 22-25. Full year results surely around 30cents. Would love to be wrong on all counts and see a 40cent share price lol.

  7. #6467
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Oct 2017
    Posts
    1,488

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by DownTownJr View Post
    After broadband release, OSB sell off and half year results, I would like to see around 22-25. Full year results surely around 30cents. Would love to be wrong on all counts and see a 40cent share price lol.
    What will it take for Sky to be valued at $1B?

  8. #6468
    Member
    Join Date
    Oct 2020
    Posts
    70

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by mistaTea View Post
    What will it take for Sky to be valued at $1B?
    I have no idea. But I do have faith in Martin and as a past consumer of Sky products the reason why we cancelled Sky was because of cost. We enjoyed watching Discovery, National Geographic etc and movies, but didn't want to pay the full cost of Sky just for the few channels we enjoyed.

    I am most looking forward to seeing how they repackage these bundles, especially with the chance of a new STB that could cut the cost of the monthly fee, although it's a shame the STB is such a long way out.

    If Sky can continue to grow their consumer numbers and decrease churn, bundle some new packages with sport + neon + broadband etc, then we could be in for some exciting times.

    Or even better leave it up to OGG for a takeover conspiracy.

  9. #6469
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Oct 2017
    Posts
    1,488

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by DownTownJr View Post
    I have no idea. But I do have faith in Martin and as a past consumer of Sky products the reason why we cancelled Sky was because of cost. We enjoyed watching Discovery, National Geographic etc and movies, but didn't want to pay the full cost of Sky just for the few channels we enjoyed.

    I am most looking forward to seeing how they repackage these bundles, especially with the chance of a new STB that could cut the cost of the monthly fee, although it's a shame the STB is such a long way out.

    If Sky can continue to grow their consumer numbers and decrease churn, bundle some new packages with sport + neon + broadband etc, then we could be in for some exciting times.

    Or even better leave it up to OGG for a takeover conspiracy.
    Martin and his team maintain my full support.

    He has had to make some tough calls, but the right calls. No doubt he has not executed everything 100%, but what human being is perfect?

    I think he has learned a lot about Sky and NZ over the last year or so...and overall he has been leading the company in the right direction.

    Can he pull off one of the great turnaround stories of NZ corporate history? Only time will tell, but on the balance of probabilities...I say yes.

    And at the current low SP, I hope they elect for buybacks next year instead of re-establishing a dividend.

  10. #6470
    Member
    Join Date
    Oct 2020
    Posts
    70

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by mistaTea View Post
    And at the current low SP, I hope they elect for buybacks next year instead of re-establishing a dividend.
    I would be in favor of a buyback, way to many shares currently available and would bring some stability and not see thousands of shares for sale. Have a feeling they will opt for a dividend, as a dividend will be more appealing to future investors.

  11. #6471
    Member
    Join Date
    Oct 2019
    Posts
    299

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by DownTownJr View Post
    I would be in favor of a buyback, way to many shares currently available and would bring some stability and not see thousands of shares for sale. Have a feeling they will opt for a dividend, as a dividend will be more appealing to future investors.
    Share consolidation with a dividend.
    Two birds one stone
    Last edited by Dlownz; 28-11-2020 at 05:23 PM.

  12. #6472
    Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2020
    Location
    Sydney
    Posts
    280

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Dlownz View Post
    Share consolidation with a dividend.
    Two birds one stone
    A buyback or consolidation + dividend are both good options. I wonder which is better for investors?

  13. #6473
    Member
    Join Date
    Oct 2019
    Posts
    299

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by tqtq View Post
    A buyback or consolidation + dividend are both good options. I wonder which is better for investors?
    I never really got a answer to how much a share consolidation costs so it depends. If say it costs 10mil to share consolidation vs buying shares then it's going to be better value to do the share consolidation as it works out a lot cheaper. Thoughts...??

  14. #6474
    Member
    Join Date
    May 2020
    Location
    Auckland
    Posts
    42

    Default

    I think sky needs to be working on executing/optimizing their Broadband/Sky packages. Rather than worry about Vocus. As Vocus also serve a lot of Business customers. That is whole different ballgame.

    Also focus on signing up more sports content. Examples -F1/NZCricket/Football/EPL going forward. In my case, i now have to subscribe to spark sport for Cricket, albeit for a short time. A lot of friends i know have signed up-to Spark sport. Just puzzles me, as there is hardly any content.

    If executed well, this will definitely make a positive difference to the share price.

    A dividend in the near future may not bring much to us shareholders. But, Yes might bring in new investors in the short term.

  15. #6475
    On the doghouse
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Location
    , , New Zealand.
    Posts
    7,343

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Dlownz View Post
    I never really got a answer to how much a share consolidation costs so it depends. If say it costs 10mil to share consolidation vs buying shares then it's going to be better value to do the share consolidation as it works out a lot cheaper. Thoughts...??
    There are no imputation credits on the Sky books due to accumulated losses. That means buying back shares is more 'capital efficient' than paying dividends. In a consolidation, the more shares bought back, the less shares are left to distribute company profits to. So earnings per share will go up, even if company profits in dollar terms are flat. That is good for remaining shareholders.

    As far as share consolidation goes, I have never heard of the cost of the exercise putting off a consolidation happening. In theory, it makes no difference to shareholders because the share reduction is proportional for all shareholders. The same profit is shared over less shares on issue. The two effects 'More profit per share' and 'less shares overall' exactly balance each other out.

    SNOOPY
    Last edited by Snoopy; 29-11-2020 at 07:31 AM.
    Industry shorthand sees BNZ employees still called 'bankers' but ANZ employees now called 'anchors'. Westpac has opted out of banking industry shorthand...

  16. #6476
    Just a harmless teddy bear
    Join Date
    Jun 2001
    Location
    , , .
    Posts
    28,496

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Snoopy View Post
    There are no imputation credits on the Sky books due to accumulated losses. That means buying back shares is more 'capital efficient' than paying dividends. In a consolidation, the more shares bought back, the less shares are left to distribute company profits to. So earnings per share will go up, even if company profits in dollar terms are flat. That is good for remaining shareholders.

    As far as share consolidation goes, I have never heard of the cost of the exercise putting off a consolidation happening. In theory, it makes no difference to shareholders because the share reduction is proportional for all shareholders. The same profit is shared over less shares on issue. The two effects 'More profit per share' and 'less shares overall' exactly balance each other out.

    SNOOPY
    Snoops - SKT have $146m of available imputation credits (AR June 2020)
    Last edited by winner69; 29-11-2020 at 07:38 AM.
    ďIn a roaring bull market, knowledge is superfluous and experience is a handicap.Ē - Benjamin Graham

  17. #6477
    On the doghouse
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Location
    , , New Zealand.
    Posts
    7,343

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Snoops - SKT have $146m of available imputation credits (AR June 2020)
    Thanks for the correction. I just assumed with all the write-downs all retained profits would have been extinguished. If a positive imputation credit balance exists, then it makes just as much economic sense to pay a dividend as it does to do a buy back.

    SNOOPY
    Industry shorthand sees BNZ employees still called 'bankers' but ANZ employees now called 'anchors'. Westpac has opted out of banking industry shorthand...

  18. #6478
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Oct 2017
    Posts
    1,488

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Snoopy View Post
    Thanks for the correction. I just assumed with all the write-downs all retained profits would have been extinguished. If a positive imputation credit balance exists, then it makes just as much economic sense to pay a dividend as it does to do a buy back.

    SNOOPY
    I think it comes down to how undervalued management feel the company is. If the current 16.6c/share is a 50% or greater discount to their estimation of intrinsic value, then I think a share buyback is a no-brainer.
    Sure, the imputation credits will reduce some of the tax burden on shareholders if a dividend is declared...but it will only reduce it, not eliminate it.

    Dividends are ****e, they should only ever be paid out to shareholders when buybacks are not favourable to existing shareholders and the money can not be reinvested back into the business for growth in a meaningful way. It is such a tax inefficient way to return money to shareholders.

    I would much rather a share buyback at these prices so that I can own a bigger slice of the pie.

    Let's say that next year there is $30M that is distributable to shareholders. Management could still easily buy back 150M shares (the SP would likely increase somewhat once a buyback was declared, so 150M shares would be if they bought $30M worth of shares at an average of 20c/share. Just being conservative on how many shares could be bought back on market - not a prediction on how the SP would behave ).

    That would reduce shares outstanding to ~1.6B - close enough to a 9% reduction.

    Then if the business continues to execute well on the strategy, increase EBITDA...it would not be totally lunatic to expect the SP to increase further over time.

    Once the SP hit a level where a buyback was no longer favourable to existing shareholders relative to a dividend...then I think a share consolidation would have more merit.

    Let's say in this hypothetical, the SP has hit 30c after the previous buyback and more progress with broadband etc. Shares outstanding = 1.6B.

    Well you could do a 4:1 consolidation. The shares outstanding reduce to 400M (all of our shareholdings are reduced by the same proportion, so we are no 'better' or 'worse' off).
    BUT...all things being equal, the quoted value per share would quadruple on the smaller number of shares outstanding. So the SP should 'rocket' to $1.20. The benefit here is that Sky would no longer be a 'penny stock' and that could potentially start to attract other large investors who are not allowed to invest in penny stocks.

    My two cents + GST for what it is worth!

  19. #6479
    Just a harmless teddy bear
    Join Date
    Jun 2001
    Location
    , , .
    Posts
    28,496

    Default

    Could do a prorata buyback ...every shareholder participates (no choice)

    But that would be dumb so soon after extracting cash from poor shareholders ...and do they actually have excessive amounts of ‘spare capital’ to return

    If Martin bonus is TSR related a buyback would help get it
    Last edited by winner69; 29-11-2020 at 08:39 AM.
    ďIn a roaring bull market, knowledge is superfluous and experience is a handicap.Ē - Benjamin Graham

  20. #6480
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Oct 2017
    Posts
    1,488

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Could do a prorata buyback ...every shareholder participates (no choice)

    But that would be dumb so soon after extracting cash from poor shareholders ...and do they actually have excessive amounts of ‘spare capital’ to return

    If Martin bonus is TSR related a buyback would help get it
    I think they are expecting to have surplus cash from operations in the second half of the 2021 calendar year.

    By then most of the large CAPEX for the transition would have been spent and the $100M bonds repaid (which was the purpose of the cap raise).

    Good position to get to, and if both Martin and shareholders benefit from a buyback then that is a win win.

    It would only be bad if a buyback was done at a price that was not in existing shareholders best interests but benefited the CEO massively due to his bonus structure.

    I donít see us being in that position for a long time!

Tags for this Thread

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •