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19-06-2020, 11:03 AM
#3141
Member
Originally Posted by Ogg
More SPH notices today reflecting the new update of shares on issue.
As I suspected, no selling from Black Crane or Vanguard. All the activity is coming from the UBS trading desk. They are likely responsible for about 90% of the volume on the stock. Do these muppets not have anything better to do? They've shed a 2% position percentage wise. Likely by over buying in the placement then trading the excess stock 1000 times over. Lord knows how much profit they've made churning this thing over the last couple of weeks. They still own a decent position so if a take over does come it's still win/win for them.
If you take out all the 'noise', what's really happened is that a small amount of retail would have likely sold down over the last couple of weeks to raise liquidity in the placement. Replacing that volume would have been other retail speculators entering the stock. The large genuine institutional holders have held. The trading range from 14.7-23 has all been manipulated by the trading desks.
Soon the brokers will start releasing coverage on the stock. By then traders would have recovered or built up a buy position. The share registry will tighten, and the stock will rise. I suspect the company will then release an update in tandem - ordered by UBS of course.
More SPH notices will likely be released today but I'm not expecting much. It's already obvious what's happening. I doubt ACC have sold any. Morgan Stanley would have just been doing what UBS have been doing.
Pretty basic stuff here.
You reckon there is support at 14.7 cents? Seems like there is a bit of support at 15 cents at the moment.
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19-06-2020, 11:13 AM
#3142
Originally Posted by Quantitative Easing
You reckon there is support at 14.7 cents? Seems like there is a bit of support at 15 cents at the moment.
Support at 15?... You mean the 52 fake UBS buyers and 1 genuine retail order sitting at 15?
The "levels" are just made up. The placement at 12 was basically picked from thin air. If you wanna talk levels, then maybe the TERP at 17 could be used as a base line. The drop down to here is from the back of the global sell off recently.
The lack of volume today and over the last couple of days suggest to me that there is little incentive for traders. Most of the excess stock would have been sold by now.
We're 1 week post retail entitlement. By the end of next week things will start to get back to normal.
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19-06-2020, 11:30 AM
#3143
Member
Originally Posted by Ogg
Support at 15?... You mean the 52 fake UBS buyers and 1 genuine retail order sitting at 15?
By the end of next week things will start to get back to normal.
what is your view on normal?
A sniff test suggests that something is definitely in the offing. Whether M&A activity, takeover, or something else...remains to be seen.
Disc: hold some
Last edited by Paradox; 19-06-2020 at 11:30 AM.
Reason: typo
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19-06-2020, 11:35 AM
#3144
Originally Posted by Paradox
what is your view on normal?
20c, two to three weeks post retail entitlement
25c, by late August after end of year results.
30c take over price any time now.
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19-06-2020, 11:55 AM
#3145
Member
I suppose the real question is buy more sky shares at 14.7 cents or put it elsewhere? I think humans are more prone to loss aversion so would end up buying more sky (at least i would) to lower the average price. But if you sit back and think about it deeply aren't we better off putting our money into new investments with better market sentiment?
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19-06-2020, 02:32 PM
#3146
Member
Originally Posted by Ogg
Support at 15?... You mean the 52 fake UBS buyers and 1 genuine retail order sitting at 15?
So what happens when the price does dip to 15? UBS will have to take up whatever the market is offloading onto them, and then they'll have bags of 15c shares.
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19-06-2020, 02:56 PM
#3147
Originally Posted by Akane
So what happens when the price does dip to 15? UBS will have to take up whatever the market is offloading onto them, and then they'll have bags of 15c shares.
If a retail holder were to sell 1m stock at 15, that excess stock would be distributed to one of UBS's affiliates. They'll take unlimited bags at 15c and they'll sell unlimited bags at 16 too. Doesn't matter, the idea is to ***** it as much as possible. At the end of the week they'll be a profit. Why? Because nervous nellies get stopped out and Sharesies users throw stupid buy orders on market like willy nilly. While this is all happening UBS parent company collects interest on any borrowed stock.
The game is simple. Buy bucket loads of stock at 12c. Keep some, sell some, and trade the rest like crazy. Profit profit profit. Once it's been shaken dry, they'll release an updated research report. Then they'll bug the company for an update. The stock jumps, and it starts all over again.
The trading team will do their thing and the merger and acquisition team will work on the take over. In theory there's supposed to be a "wall" between them but they both know what's going on.
Last edited by Ogg; 19-06-2020 at 03:46 PM.
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19-06-2020, 02:58 PM
#3148
Originally Posted by Ogg
.
Hey Ogg, just be a bit careful what you say using the word "churning". Churning is illegal and as such you are opening yourself up for a defamation suit.
Last edited by blackcap; 19-06-2020 at 06:19 PM.
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19-06-2020, 03:09 PM
#3149
Originally Posted by blackcap
Hey Ogg, just be a bit careful what you say using the word "churning". Churning is illegal and as such you are opening yourself up for a defamation suit.
My advice to them would be to let it go unless they want to end up like the Grange Golf Club.
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19-06-2020, 06:17 PM
#3150
Member
Strong finish at the end of the day. What do we put it down to? Some leaked info...
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