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13-01-2022, 09:34 AM
#11741
Originally Posted by LaserEyeKiwi
It an improper comparison in my opinion - HBO effectively has hundreds of millions of viewers internationally through other content aggregators (like Sky in NZ) that aren’t included in their subscriber stats.
Yes that is a very good point.
Also, when you consider the a bunch of the 74M HBO MAX subs are freebies to cable channel subs...it would be interesting to know how many of the 74M are people that value the service enough to pay for it.
From a pure streaming perspective, I think that number would be a better comparison against NETFLIX and Disney+.
To me, it further highlights the importance of distribution partners to Warner. NETFLIX and Disney+ are by far and away the dominant global streaming services. NETFLIX because...well, they are just awesome. Disney+ because it is awesome too...but also has a very unique value proposition which virtually guarantees them a lot of subs.
Very hard for other companies like Warner to get the kind of streaming numbers required to justify ditching their partnerships. There are only so many streaming services the average punter is prepared to juggle. Which is why, so far, we have not seen them do that. They may want to include their HBO MAX in future deals, but I don't see them killing the Golden Goose anytime soon.
And in the meantime, the Bundle lives on.
On another note...just 6 weeks until we find out what goodies Bowman has in store for us. Unless someone comes in before then with a deal.
Some possible candidates (in order of likelihood imo):
- Private Equity
- Spark
- Discovery
- Warner (though they usually do deals with their own PE vehicle...)
- Foxtel
- MIRA-Aware (owners of Orcon and soon-to-be 2D. If it wasn't for the fact they are busy sorting out the 2D merger right now they would have featured higher on the list)
Vodafone not included in the mix. I think them shutting down VTV is a clear signal that their owners see little value in content.
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13-01-2022, 12:16 PM
#11742
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13-01-2022, 01:10 PM
#11743
Originally Posted by winner69
No test cricket on SKY today …that’s a bugger
NZ Cricket doesn’t realise how much goodwill / interest they’ve lost taking the money from Spark …I’d say.one term net negative impact
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/sport/459...-caps-on-spark
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13-01-2022, 05:56 PM
#11744
Originally Posted by jimdog31
WHo in their right mind is currently selling?!
It beggars belief really.
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13-01-2022, 06:37 PM
#11745
Originally Posted by jimdog31
Were punters expecting a takeover bid over new years?? weak hands!
I stopped trying to guess at the motivations of others a long time ago.
All I know is that the current SP movements are just noise.
Feb 24 is all that matters in the short time (or some other M&A catalyst before then, should something like that happen).
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13-01-2022, 08:16 PM
#11746
Member
Originally Posted by jimdog31
Were punters expecting a takeover bid over new years?? weak hands!
I imagine that people will be taking profits. Also they could be worried that there are issues with the property sale. Could be anything.
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13-01-2022, 08:31 PM
#11747
Originally Posted by mistaTea
It beggars belief really.
One of those Wall St gurus said "sometimes the market does something so stupid that it takes one's breath away"".
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14-01-2022, 07:57 AM
#11748
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14-01-2022, 08:38 AM
#11749
Member
Originally Posted by mikelee
But surely institutions would be topping up so there's gotta be more demand than shares available to buy!?
This reminds me of people selling just before the property sale is announced.
Let's hope for a repeat!
It will present a good buying opportunity for non sellers. I remember toping up at $1.69 a few months back
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14-01-2022, 08:44 AM
#11750
Originally Posted by mikelee
But surely institutions would be topping up so there's gotta be more demand than shares available to buy!?
This reminds me of people selling just before the property sale is announced.
Let's hope for a repeat!
The volatility we see is largely caused by the lack of trading volume.
This often happens when the market still views a company with great uncertainty.
Even modest changes in trading volumes can cause big swings in pricing (up or down) as we see with Sky.
If the market was more ‘certain’ about sky we would see much higher volumes and therefore a consensus price that did not fluctuate significantly.
So it’s the same old story for sky.
And if Sky is to remain a listed company, then the only way the market will view the business with more certainty/clarity is if they become a fully fledged telco like they did in the UK years ago.
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