I will start off by saying that technical analysis isn't overly reliable at predicting exactly how far a move will go, especially when there is very little resistance. TA is however reliable (when used correctly) at identifying higher probability and good risk/reward setups, then helping time an exit.
Assuming we have a monthly bullflag on our hands here, then using the measure rule we would expect to $3.40-$3.50 as a price target before further monthly consolidation. I also look to previous price support/resistance areas to look for consolidation. There is no notable resistance up until the $3.80-$4 area as the price fell through there so quickly. This does not mean a new resistance won't be formed in this area - maybe a psychological level like $3.00 or $3.50.
Ultimately though I am not trading this stock and have just tucked away a maximum portfolio position. I only check in on the chart to ensure there are no TA red flags. Only thing required to make money here is patience.
Thank you Stallion. All I managed to understand from all that is you guaranteeing us $3.50 in the near term.
NZM doing a deal with Google (and looking to do something with Meta).
Excellent.
Once we get our SP out of the toilet with a good capital return program and dividend we will have the ability to use our shares as currency for a merger.
Telco still my much preferred option but it looks like the financial community as well as the Sky Board are not keen on that idea. And there is a fair argument to be made that it is not essential to own the physical assets when you can do wholesale deals - in fact, having three major telcos now ensures that wholesale rates and terms for players like Sky should remain very competitive. Sky's broadband offer is very competitive compared to Spark and Vodafone even though Vocus also need to take a cut.
But Sky has to continue to expand into new markets and revenue streams over time.
The other 'obvious' end game is a deal with NZM in order to become a bigger media play in NZ (backed up with wholesale broadband and eventually mobile plays). The TVNZ-RNZ merger would mean that a deal like this will get through the regulatory hurdles no sweat.
No way to know for certain how this goes for Sky - but one thing is very clear to me: Sky has a lot of different options moving forward. A lot of really good options.
But the timing is not quite right yet...good to see the SP tracking up a fair bit recently but it has much further to go to get near fair value for Sky given Earning Power and Balance Sheet strength.
As Stallion points out...patience is all that is required.
I'm quietly optimistic that Sky will invest in the new entity with NZR. This would be a game changer for Sky as it will be a source of digital or other revenue that will offset any negative churn from satellite customers dropping off and paint Sky as a company with innovate digital income streams.
I'm quietly optimistic that Sky will invest in the new entity with NZR. This would be a game changer for Sky as it will be a source a digital or other revenue that will offset any negative churn from satellite customers dropping off and paint Sky as a company with innovate digital income streams.
Aye, and Sophie has beed leading the team in good decision making lately so we do have reason to have faith that they will be picking the best option for Sky, long term.
I mean...Sophie did screw the pooch somewhat horrifically with the whole RugbyPass fiasco (she was the one who brought the deal to Martin - and then he clearly panicked and paid too much).
So she definitely ain't perfect, but she's all we got. And doing a good job so far.
Jeez those rugby commentators on SKY are just so awful
Bad enough to cancel SKY Sport ….seeing I’m told it’s gone up in price as well
With all the zillions of dollars you keep telling us you have, I doubt an increase of 10 cents per day will cause you to have to cut down on the Dom Perignon mate…
Originally Posted by Joshuatree
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