SKT Sky Network Television Limited.

[Old mate]

Would have thought there will be a few holders looking to exit after capital return also.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

You forgot the first bit of the quote, which is crucial.



Sky have a long standing and deep relationship with these guys - so it is a big call to assume that the outcome will definitely be that Sky is cut out of the equation altogether. I am not saying it is not possible, just pointing out that there is also a very good chance (if not a probability​) Sky maintain those relationships. As I say, WD-Disc would need to anticipate some pretty large sub numbers willing to pay them month in and month out to justify killing the sky deal.

Given we renewed an expanded exclusive HBO deal just last year, I would be surprised if it ended in 2024. Possible, but would surprise me.

It appears HBO/WB have aligned all their international content deals to expire in 2024/25 - so they can launch HBOMax internationally unencombered

Today Disney reported that their Direct-to-consumer streaming services combined (Disney+ / ESPN+ / Hulu) now number more than Netflix. Other streamers are getting scared of getting left behind - its go big or go home now.

[mistaTea]

It appears HBO/WB have aligned all their international content deals to expire in 2024/25 - so they can launch HBOMax internationally unencombered

If SNT can keep a co-exclusive deal they will be just fine.

Yet another OTT market entrant will only strengthen Sky's value add as a content aggregator.

[mistaTea]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...57E7BCWXVXV3Y/

Wow, Disney+ now has more subs than netflix.

Americans will have to pay more to watch ad-free, and I am sure they will roll that model out internationally soon.

They need to dramatically increase revenue.

Disney said paid subscriptions for Disney+ grew by 31 per cent, much of that internationally, over the same time last year. But revenue growth was not as strong due to operating losses from "higher programming and production, technology and marketing costs".

But Disney's direct-to-consumer segment, which includes its streaming operations, lost US$1.1 billion in the third quarter from its year-ago US$293m loss.

Just madness how these companies are killing themselves in the hope that they will become top dog and make large profits in the future. Netflix only just started producing earnings when they got knocked off their perch.

Content production costs have soared to unprecedented levels as these companies need to continually produce hit shows to attract growth in subs.

HBO-Warner look set to enter the fray. Their service would be very good, but I think they will be up against it if they think they will get anywhere near the subs that netflix and disney have. All the while Amazon making big ivnestments too...new shows like The Stand and the LOTR series will be popular.

Apple TV spending tonnes of $ on their service.

All to produce huge negative cashflows in the hope that it will 'come right' in the future.

Just madness.

[Rustycage]

It’s definitely a worry

There is an excellent pitch on Disney on the VIC forum from May 22 (I think). Poster does well to highlight the economics of linear vs streaming: it’s gonna take several years to see how this plays out. The poster predicted DTC EBIT is higher than linear EBIT at the end of the 2025 DIS year. Pretty reasonable/conservative assumptions too

As the holder of WBD, SKT and an unnamed European media s***co, I do wonder if it all gets rebundled at some point and we are back to Foxtel/Sky/Cable if you’re in the States 🤣

Fingers crossed for a reasonable capital return on the 25th

[mistaTea]

Fingers crossed for a reasonable capital return on the 25th

'Dem gainz' suggest Mr Market is anticipating a decent payout will be announced in under a fortnight.

[snigmac]

'Dem gainz' suggest Mr Market is anticipating a decent payout will be announced in under a fortnight.

Fingers crossed for a large payout for current holders.

[mistaTea]

Fingers crossed for a large payout for current holders.

Sceptical posters have every reason to believe that Sky may fall short of expectations given the track record.

Let's just hope they do keep it simple by just returning cash via dividend + special divvy (given the vast amounts of imputation credits on the books) and not pursue a drawn out and questionable buyback.

We can come up with a range of outcomes depending on how stingy (or not) the Board is.

• I can't see the Board getting away with paying out any less than ~$50M in total (say 30cps). If they go this low without an incredibly good reason I think it will be a big disappointment to the market and 'dem gainz' we have seen in the last week will evaporate very quickly
• I can't see them paying any more than the Craigs prediction of ~$90M (50cps). That number would delight current holders, potentially boost the SP even more and still leave them with $60M or so in the bank to continue executing the strategy while maintaining a healthy dividend in future years

So if it is just going to be capital return by dividend (please God let it be so!) then we can confidently expect something in the order of 30 - 50cps - hopefully much closer to the top end!

We can probably narrow that down even further to 40cps - 50cps ($70M - $90M payout) because if they only paid $50M I think Philip Bowman and Joan Withers realise that they would lose their jobs. $70M is less than half of the cash they will have in the bank remember, paying out less than half of available cash would only get shareholder support if they had a bloody good reason for still hoarding so much cash (and they don't have a good reason to do so since the MW deal is dead and buried, and therefore need to cough this year big time).

[mistaTea]

It’s definitely a worry

There is an excellent pitch on Disney on the VIC forum from May 22 (I think). Poster does well to highlight the economics of linear vs streaming: it’s gonna take several years to see how this plays out. The poster predicted DTC EBIT is higher than linear EBIT at the end of the 2025 DIS year. Pretty reasonable/conservative assumptions too

As the holder of WBD, SKT and an unnamed European media s***co, I do wonder if it all gets rebundled at some point and we are back to Foxtel/Sky/Cable if you’re in the States 藍

Fingers crossed for a reasonable capital return on the 25th

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...HBZJ4NMD4FT3E/

[mistaTea]

Two bucks sixty...