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24-08-2022, 09:16 AM
#13251
9c div would be a surprise given they have stated they will be dividending between 50 and 80% of free cash flow. They would need a very good reason to depart from that and not destroy whatever credibility they have left. It is not as if they are about to buy Media Works and need to reserve cash for that...
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24-08-2022, 09:59 AM
#13252
Originally Posted by Popeye
9c div would be a surprise given they have stated they will be dividending between 50 and 80% of free cash flow. They would need a very good reason to depart from that and not destroy whatever credibility they have left. It is not as if they are about to buy Media Works and need to reserve cash for that...
Yes, the idea of a 9cps divvy shows the perils of taking the consensus of these so-called analysts.
As you point out, that would not even equate to 50% of adjusted FCF. It doesn't even touch the rest of the large cash pile either.
I think the minimum standard dividend would be around 15cps and maximum 23cps ($26M - $40M).
Then, if Craigs is closer to the mark and Sky are planning to return $90M in total the special dividend would be somewhere between 28cps to 36cps (50M - 64M).
Total payout 51cps.
Less than 24 hours until we find out how generous Sky will be and in what format they will do a capital return. Special dividend seems the most sensible route at this junction, but there is always the possibility of some sort of a buyback too).
Should see some further uplift in SP.
Last edited by mistaTea; 24-08-2022 at 10:11 AM.
Reason: clarification
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24-08-2022, 10:46 AM
#13253
Originally Posted by mistaTea
Yes, the idea of a 9cps divvy shows the perils of taking the consensus of these so-called analysts.
As you point out, that would not even equate to 50% of adjusted FCF. It doesn't even touch the rest of the large cash pile either.
I think the minimum standard dividend would be around 15cps and maximum 23cps ($26M - $40M).
Then, if Craigs is closer to the mark and Sky are planning to return $90M in total the special dividend would be somewhere between 28cps to 36cps (50M - 64M).
Total payout 51cps.
Less than 24 hours until we find out how generous Sky will be and in what format they will do a capital return. Special dividend seems the most sensible route at this junction, but there is always the possibility of some sort of a buyback too).
Should see some further uplift in SP.
Too late for a buyback. As soon as return to dividends is announced the firm SP, will make a buyback less effective.
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24-08-2022, 10:49 AM
#13254
Originally Posted by bottomfeeder
Too late for a buyback. As soon as return to dividends is announced the firm SP, will make a buyback less effective.
Yes, I agree. Buyback at current market cap far less appealing than when we were ~$400M.
If they do a buyback instead of special dividend I suspect the market may feel a tad disappointed.
Would be great if we got a big special dividend payout and then an upgrade to future dividend policy like Spark have just done : 80%-100% if FCF.
That should see the stock get more interest.
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24-08-2022, 10:50 AM
#13255
Originally Posted by bottomfeeder
Too late for a buyback. As soon as return to dividends is announced the firm SP, will make a buyback less effective.
A return to dividend is a given.
Heck, we have already been advised to make sure our bank details are up to date with the share registry!
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24-08-2022, 11:09 AM
#13256
Agree on all counts except on with what the SP might do, that is voodoo magic when it comes to Sky, it seems to defy all logic more often than not!
Originally Posted by mistaTea
Yes, the idea of a 9cps divvy shows the perils of taking the consensus of these so-called analysts.
As you point out, that would not even equate to 50% of adjusted FCF. It doesn't even touch the rest of the large cash pile either.
I think the minimum standard dividend would be around 15cps and maximum 23cps ($26M - $40M).
Then, if Craigs is closer to the mark and Sky are planning to return $90M in total the special dividend would be somewhere between 28cps to 36cps (50M - 64M).
Total payout 51cps.
Less than 24 hours until we find out how generous Sky will be and in what format they will do a capital return. Special dividend seems the most sensible route at this junction, but there is always the possibility of some sort of a buyback too).
Should see some further uplift in SP.
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24-08-2022, 11:53 AM
#13257
Given a heap of the $'s has come from selling their building...might a "dividend" be structured as a capital return ?
Had a few of those over the years....most recently from an Oz company. In their case they didn't even need to cancel any shares.
Last edited by RTM; 24-08-2022 at 12:08 PM.
Reason: Spelling
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24-08-2022, 12:04 PM
#13258
Originally Posted by RTM
Given a heap of the $'s has come from selling their building...might a "dividend" be structured as a capital return ?
Had a few of those over the years....most recently from an Oz company. In there case they didn't even need to cancel any shares.
A tax free capital return was something I aggitated for months ago when the propery was sold.
But now that we are all these months later I think a special dividend makes the most sense, especially given we have so many imputation credits. Most shareholders won't pay any tax and the ones that do will only pay 5%.
If they try to do a capital return payment now it will take months before you get your money as it has to get court approval and other box ticking exercises. If they initiated it when I was advocating for it then we would have received the money by late August/early September.
If they just do a sepcial dividend we will get the payment by mid September - a much better outcome.
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24-08-2022, 12:47 PM
#13259
Out of curiosity. Did Sky TV have a dividend reinvestment plan?
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24-08-2022, 03:45 PM
#13260
Only 48,000 on the NZX and 13,000 on the ASX traded today so far. It seems that there are no leaks from the boardroom about tomorrow's result.
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