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  1. #1551
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    Quote Originally Posted by jg8512 View Post
    is that what the Vodafone TV box does (for $160)?
    No.

    2nd Generation Vodafone TV lets you subscribe to stream Sky TV satellite channels and launch a range of apps (NEON, NETFLIX, Lightbox etc etc).

    Does not aggregate all content sources into a convenient UI.

  2. #1552
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    Stuff article about different alternatives, including Vodafone TV

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opi...sky-settop-box

    Interesting read the comments about different experiences - but Stuff comments can become a mind-wrapping parallel universe that you may not escape with your sanity......

  3. #1553
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sideshow Bob View Post
    Stuff article about different alternatives, including Vodafone TV

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opi...sky-settop-box

    Interesting read the comments about different experiences - but Stuff comments can become a mind-wrapping parallel universe that you may not escape with your sanity......
    Vodafone TV is definitely a cheaper way of getting traditional Sky TV packages.

    This is because Vodafone do not charge a set top box fee if you subscribe as part of their fibre plan. So instead of paying $71 to Sky to get Starter ($25) + Sport ($31 ish) + My Sky (15), you would get the equivalent for $56 per month. Much more reasonable.

    Then, because the new generation has NEON - you can just subscribe to NEON for $13.95 a month to get a range of movies and SOHO content (instead of paying $30 to get Sky Movies + SOHO).

    Now you don't even have to be a Vodafone fibre customer to get Vodafone TV. You can stay with your current ISP and purchase a VTV box for $179 I believe. When you consider that the MySky rental option is $180 per annum (and no matter how long you rent the box from Sky, you never actually own it) then after 1 year you are already better off. VTV box provides all of the same MySky functionality (pause, rewind, record, series link etc) and actually provides more cloud storage capacity.

    I used the 1st Generation VTV. It was really a Beta model. It had limited apps and the UI was a bit clunky. After 12 months I handed it back and have since started using AppleTV (which I love). I believe the latest 2nd Generation VTV boxes are much better though.

    If I was going to subscribe to traditional Sky content I would definitely be inclined to go this way and stream it all online instead of signing up with Sky TV directly. Slicker UI and cheaper.

  4. #1554
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    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12276639

    I see another worthless Morningstar rating has been released. Does anyone actually use their value estimates as a basis to make investment decisions?

    All the reasons they list to further downgrade the 'fair value' estimate existed before the recent cricket and rugby rights were awarded.

    It has been expected for some time that content costs will go up and content will be come more fragmented across multiple platforms (both entertainment and sport).

    So why didn't Morningstar factor this in more last time and give an estimate of $1.30 instead of $1.85? Nothing has actually changed since then, except Sky have held on to key rugby rights while also further deepening their relationship with NZR (thereby securing rugby on reasonable terms possibly forever).

    Seems to be Morningstar just automatically adjust their value estimates down when the shareprice goes down (and come up with a new story of why this time they are really correct!). Even if nothing has really changed from last time.

    I would much rather they stuck to their principles, and only moved fair value estimates up or down once the story of the company actually changes.

  5. #1555
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    Quote Originally Posted by mistaTea View Post
    So why didn't Morningstar factor this in more last time and give an estimate of $1.30 instead of $1.85? Nothing has actually changed since then, except Sky have held on to key rugby rights while also further deepening their relationship with NZR (thereby securing rugby on reasonable terms possibly forever).

    I think the one issue I have with the most recent announcement is that in recent years I feel Rugby has lost its way. The local competition's crowds are poor, participation numbers falling and even corporate sponsorship at a super rugby level is fairly cheap. Outside of the handful of All Blacks games annually which I'd tune into, in my circles (Male in my 30s) I've seen a huge lethargy towards the product being produced in the last few years. With seemingly endless rule changes, Super rugby competition realignment and the volume of meaningless games it's hard to get excited like previous years. I also think the lack of rivalry from across the Tasman has also contributed to this state.

    When combining this with the availability and accessibility of other sports (most via streaming) in my mind has meant we've possibly seen the end of the golden years of Rugby. However this doesn't appear to be mirrored in the most recent blockbuster deal. I suspect the threat of spark sport has resulted in an over payment by Sky TV, and I think the NZRU have capitalised on this perfectly. I believe that Spark's mandate will be to proceed to acquire a broad suite of other sports that more accurately reflect the diversity of the NZ viewing public's requirements, made easier now that Sky TV has played most of its trump cards.

    I'm not a holder, but watch with interest following the recent announcements. I'd consider buying for a medium term hold at the right price, however I think that price is probably sub 80c (with a market cap of $300m). I wouldn't be surprised to see earnings in the $30-45m mark range in the 2021 calendar year as content rights increases start squeezing margins further and subs continue to trend downwards.

  6. #1556
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    Quote Originally Posted by Well Endowed View Post

    I suspect the threat of spark sport has resulted in an over payment by Sky TV, and I think the NZRU have capitalised on this perfectly. I believe that Spark's mandate will be to proceed to acquire a broad suite of other sports that more accurately reflect the diversity of the NZ viewing public's requirements, made easier now that Sky TV has played most of its trump cards.
    .
    You are not the first to write about this myth - that Sky paid way over the odds for rugby and has now spent all of their money and will not be able to effectively compete for other key rights.

    Nobody knows how much Sky has paid, especially since part of the deal was paid in shares. It is not in NZRU’s long term interest to rip the ring right out of it with Sky now that they are an owner of the business as well as a business partner.

    This is the genius of the deal - they are both struggling for different reasons. Each partner only succeeds if the other one does. By making NZR an equity holder it further highlights and cements that bond.

    Don’t forget, Sky suspended the last dividend - about $30M worth. Even if Sky still agrees to pay $400M cash over 5 years in addition to the new shares (which I highly doubt) then the $30M dividend that was retained alone will have covered most of the extra that needed to be paid. The $20M shortfall ($4M per year over 5 years) is hardly going to knock Sky out of being able to compete for other key rights.

    They will lose more rights to Spark, as they definitely won’t be able to win them all. To keep growing though they don’t have to win every single sporting contest - they just have to win most of the key ones. And clearly they will have to be more discerning on which ones they let Spark have and which ones they double down on and make sure they keep.

    Perfectly valid points about earnings reducing over time as margins are squeezed. But you must be expecting some incredibly high earning reductions over the next year or so to land on $30-$45M from where they are now.

    Though earnings will drop over the next few years, I don’t see that drop being anywhere near what you are predicting.
    Last edited by mistaTea; 15-10-2019 at 04:19 PM.

  7. #1557
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    Quote Originally Posted by mistaTea View Post
    No.

    2nd Generation Vodafone TV lets you subscribe to stream Sky TV satellite channels and launch a range of apps (NEON, NETFLIX, Lightbox etc etc).

    Does not aggregate all content sources into a convenient UI.
    Sounds like it does.
    https://thespinoff.co.nz/media/02-10...ur-television/

  8. #1558
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    Quote Originally Posted by jg8512 View Post
    Dude. No it does not offer ‘Channel’ functionality like AppleTV does in the USA.

    Trust me.

    It allows you to stream Sky TV’s linear channels. It also allows you to launch a range of different apps (NEON, Netflix, Lightbox etc).

    But nowhere does a VTV allow you to surface all of Sky, Netflix, Lightbox etc content into a single UI.

    You still have to go hunting for the content you want by surfing each linear channel or opening each app you subscribe to (like you would on your phone).

  9. #1559
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    ""Nobody knows how much Sky has paid..""

    I suggest this is unlikely. I'd bet a ticket in Wednesdays lotto draw that Spark Sport (and other industry players) knows exactly how much was paid for the rugby rights. They're paid to know. Information asymmetry, granted, mushrooms @ the bottom reading the Herald and Sharetrader won't know.

    In 5 years the value of SKY's equity has collapsed from $6.50 a share to 85 cents and the company has twice now in 2 months dished out equity at all time low prices. This is a woeful outcome for existing equity holders, crushed by the decline in the share price and now being diluted out of existence with issuance.

    In the current environment debt is very very cheap but equity is expensive. Take advantage of record low financing rates to borrow the funds to buy rights.

    Will any transparency eminate from Thursday's AGM. Unlikely. Tough to "invest" going forward as a retail investor when zero transparency is provided.

    GLTA.

  10. #1560
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    Issuing new shares to fund an acquisition only ever makes sense if you are gaining at least as much value as you are giving.

    In the long term, I believe this will hold true for both the RugbyPass and NZ Rugby deals.
    Last edited by mistaTea; 15-10-2019 at 06:21 PM.

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