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  1. #1561
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    Quote Originally Posted by mistaTea View Post
    You are not the first to write about this myth - that Sky paid way over the odds for rugby and has now spent all of their money and will not be able to effectively compete for other key rights.

    Nobody knows how much Sky has paid, especially since part of the deal was paid in shares. It is not in NZRU’s long term interest to rip the ring right out of it with Sky now that they are an owner of the business as well as a business partner.

    This is the genius of the deal - they are both struggling for different reasons. Each partner only succeeds if the other one does. By making NZR an equity holder it further highlights and cements that bond.

    Don’t forget, Sky suspended the last dividend - about $30M worth. Even if Sky still agrees to pay $400M cash over 5 years in addition to the new shares (which I highly doubt) then the $30M dividend that was retained alone will have covered most of the extra that needed to be paid. The $20M shortfall ($4M per year over 5 years) is hardly going to knock Sky out of being able to compete for other key rights.

    They will lose more rights to Spark, as they definitely won’t be able to win them all. To keep growing though they don’t have to win every single sporting contest - they just have to win most of the key ones. And clearly they will have to be more discerning on which ones they let Spark have and which ones they double down on and make sure they keep.

    Perfectly valid points about earnings reducing over time as margins are squeezed. But you must be expecting some incredibly high earning reductions over the next year or so to land on $30-$45M from where they are now.

    Though earnings will drop over the next few years, I don’t see that drop being anywhere near what you are predicting.
    ...........very well explained MrT, good to know someone has got a handle on all this. Agree it sounds like the ultimate win/win scenario with both parties (SKY/NZR) needing each other for this to succeed individually and jointly. WAtching closely.
    Have a Gr8day.

  2. #1562
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    Looking forward to the AGM tomorrow - should hopefully be more detail on the new streaming services they are currently working on.

    We know they are revamping NEON (way overdue - even though they have made improvements recently, from a usability perspective it is way behind Netflix).

    But I also wonder if Sky GO is going to be a big part of the future. Sky GO has improved a lot as a platform.

    Why not allow people subscribe to Sky TV bundles on Sky GO? Create apps on all the main platforms (AppleTV, Vodafone TV etc) and also allow customers to Chromecast to the big screen.

    Restrict it to one stream at a time (just like Spark Sport and Sky Sport NOW) so that you avoid the whole password sharing issue. Pay extra for an additional streaming license (just how you would pay more if you wanted a second MySky decoder in the bedroom).

    Would be a much cheaper entry point for people who are happy with their Sky bundles, but are put off by satellite pricing.

    Just an idea.

  3. #1563
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    Sure to see Sky hunt for new revenue streams at some point soon, the new CEO isnt messing around with the competition and isnt afraid to use equity in the short term for long term gain. I really think Spark or the likes are going to see Sky fighting for a place at the table.

  4. #1564
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    20 million shares purchased in 2.5 days...

    I want to know which of the big guys are dumping and who is buying.

    Sweet Jesus, please don't let this be the beginning of a takeover.

    If some big overseas outfit (like NBC) end up getting Sky, I think NZ will regret it. The company certainly needed a big kick up the ass, and have taken the notion of putting the customer first more seriously over the last year...

    But right now it is still the largest kiwi media company we have. Would be a sad day if it was delisted imo and all future profits went to an American conglomerate (for example).

    However, that's the world we live in. The constant barrage of negative media stories (some heavily biased by the likes of Chris Keall) have all contributed to the overall negative sentiment about the company. This then has contributed to the share price crashing down to levels that are completely divorced from reality and the underlying earnings fundamentals of the business.

    This then makes it like stealing candy from a baby for overseas companies on the hunt for a bargain.

  5. #1565
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    Wonder if Brent Impey is playing a role in this other than being Chair of NZ Rugby?

    Very well connected gentleman
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  6. #1566
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    https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/116...aid-for-rights

    Looks like Sky put in a very strong bid - a bid that went beyond the limit it feels NZ Cricket was actually worth.

    So Spark must have paid a huge sum indeed. I am sure how much they paid will eventually be leaked.

    Makes much more sense now when I consider the $200M wiped off their market cap straight after the deal was announced. Institutional investors must have had a reasonable idea how much money they paid to get the rights off Sky - and did not like it.

    Given Spark Sport will have a budget from their parent company Spark, the more they pay way over the odds for each deal, the easier it makes it for Sky to hold on to crucial deals.

    Any suggestion that Spark Sport have deeper pockets than Sky (due to their rich parent) is mistaken.

  7. #1567
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    so you're suggesting Sky got a bargain for the Rugby and Spark got ripped off for the Cricket?

  8. #1568
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    Quote Originally Posted by Well Endowed View Post
    so you're suggesting Sky got a bargain for the Rugby and Spark got ripped off for the Cricket?
    Sorry, I do realise that I am a bit thick mate - you'll need to point me to the previous post I made which says (or suggested) that. I can't find it.

    I have said that I believe the current rugby deal between Sky and NZR is likely to be a win-win in the long term. I believe it was NZR who put the equity stake part of the deal on the table, but it shows both parties accept reality and are able to think outside the square. When Sky does well, NZR will do well (increased dividends, increased value of shares etc). When NZR does well, Sky will do well (growing fan base generating increased subscriptions to Sky Sport etc). NZR is less likely to put the screws on Sky (now and into the future) for every cent they can get out of them now that they have deepened their relationship as it would hurt them both.

    That is not at all the same as saying I think Sky 'got a bargain' on the current rugby deal. I hope you can see the difference.

    I have not said that Spark 'got ripped off' either. I have said that they will have paid over the odds to secure the cricket rights (just like they did for the RWC). Paying over the odds will probably still be seen as a 'good deal' to Spark Sport, I'm sure. They are trying to build a loyal subscription base, and they won't be able to do that unless they are able to win key rights from Sky. As Sky are motivated to hold on to as much sport as they can, Spark must by definition pay more money than each contract is worth to get it. Whether it is sustainable and works out for them in the long term is yet to be seen - not all of their investors are convinced. However they are clearly in it to win it, and I am sure they will be around for some time.

    That analysis is not at all the same as me saying "Spark just got ripped off for the cricket".
    Last edited by mistaTea; 16-10-2019 at 03:52 PM.

  9. #1569
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    mistaTea you mentioned you are meeting the CEO this week or next? Are you an analyst or working at Sky?

  10. #1570
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    Quote Originally Posted by Entrep View Post
    mistaTea you mentioned you are meeting the CEO this week or next? Are you an analyst or working at Sky?
    Neither. Just a regular old retail investor.

    But I am going to attend the AGM tomorrow, and will get to talk to him there.

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