SKT Sky Network Television Limited.

[mistaTea]

Not looking good. I was contemplating picking up some last week but held off. Knife catching is a dangerous game and one never ceases to be amazed at what the market can do.

Not looking good in what sense? The low market value? If you are worried about price movements then definitely do not buy Sky - it is volatile right now.

From an underlying business perspective, nothing really bad has actually happened recently. They held rugby (and had to pay a bit more - but the market knew that would be the case).

They lost NZ cricket but kept all other cricket. So losing NZ cricket in and of itself is unlikely to cause subscription losses.

They did lose Disney - which sucks. But I’m not convinced it will lead to a mass exodus of subscribers. More likely, the consumer will keep Sky if they already have it and subscribe to Disney+ to make sure they have Disney for the kids (assuming CBeebies isn’t a decent enough replacement).
As I say, losing Disney is definitely not great - but I don’t think we should over egg it either.

If you deduct $62M for RugbyPass, the market has valued Sky at $320M. That’s absurd in my view.

Even at a PE of 10, earnings would need to plummet to $32M to justify a market cap like that. I don’t see it (or maybe I don’t want to).

My personal view is that consumers will be looking for good content aggregators again before long. It’s already ridiculous how many different services there are - now Apple TV+ and Disney+ coming into the mix makes it even more so.

If Showtime and HBO cut ties with Sky and came at NZ consumers direct, we would have well and truly entered Nutsville. Our population is small - nowhere near big enough to justify so many seperate services.

[Cobber]

Not looking good in what sense? The low market value? If you are worried about price movements then definitely do not buy Sky - it is volatile right now.

From an underlying business perspective, nothing really bad has actually happened recently. They held rugby (and had to pay a bit more - but the market knew that would be the case).

They lost NZ cricket but kept all other cricket. So losing NZ cricket in and of itself is unlikely to cause subscription losses.

They did lose Disney - which sucks. But I’m not convinced it will lead to a mass exodus of subscribers. More likely, the consumer will keep Sky if they already have it and subscribe to Disney+ to make sure they have Disney for the kids (assuming CBeebies isn’t a decent enough replacement).
As I say, losing Disney is definitely not great - but I don’t think we should over egg it either.

If you deduct $62M for RugbyPass, the market has valued Sky at $320M. That’s absurd in my view.

Even at a PE of 10, earnings would need to plummet to $32M to justify a market cap like that. I don’t see it (or maybe I don’t want to).

My personal view is that consumers will be looking for good content aggregators again before long. It’s already ridiculous how many different services there are - now Apple TV+ and Disney+ coming into the mix makes it even more so.

If Showtime and HBO cut ties with Sky and came at NZ consumers direct, we would have well and truly entered Nutsville. Our population is small - nowhere near big enough to justify so many seperate services.

Sky losing HBO is only a matter of time :

https://www.theverge.com/2019/10/29/...ate-ui-gallery

[Stranger_Danger]

My personal view is that consumers will be looking for good content aggregators again before long. It’s already ridiculous how many different services there are - now Apple TV+ and Disney+ coming into the mix makes it even more so.

Content aggregators are everywhere, just type "torrent sites" or similar into Google.

I agree with your point about the multiple subscriptions getting expensive, but there is a way to have it all at a price point of zero.

I'm not saying it is right, or fair, or moral. But it is real, and it is really hard to compete with zero.

[blackcap]

Content aggregators are everywhere, just type "torrent sites" or similar into Google.

I agree with your point about the multiple subscriptions getting expensive, but there is a way to have it all at a price point of zero.

I'm not saying it is right, or fair, or moral. But it is real, and it is really hard to compete with zero.

That is true. Friends of mine (both professional) have a thing called a Kodi Box? and they get all their sports and all the latest movies for free. The guy works in IT and assures me that it is all legal as he is not providing the content but only consuming it but I am sure its a grey area. The only thing is when watching the ALL Blacks play v SOuth Africa or England you may get a pommy commentary. (Its a SKY UK feed) Initially the box he got was a capital outlay of $300 or thereabouts and that was it. Sky do have that as a competitor.
Also another friend of mine (also a professional) just goes online and finds an availalbe "stream" and watches the rugby that way.
Not sure if I could go to that level on a consistent basis, but I did watch the boxing Parker v a few opponents that way.

[mistaTea]

Sky losing HBO is only a matter of time :

https://www.theverge.com/2019/10/29/...ate-ui-gallery

I don't try to predict what strategic moves other organisations will make in the future (I can't really know what HBO may or may not do, and in what timeframes etc). It is also important not to take a couple of pieces of information, and then extrapolate the results as a certainty.

i.e. Apple TV + launches tomorrow, Disney+ launches later that same month THEREFORE HBO is DEFINTELY going to ditch Sky TV once their existing deal comes to an end.

https://www.digitaltveurope.com/2019...deal-with-hbo/

Sky TV UK has just signed another 5 year deal with HBO, and it seems the two companies are actually deepening their relationship. Just because other companies are 'going it alone' does not automatically mean that HBO will attempt to gain success by following the same path.

Of course, Sky TV NZ aint Sky TV UK (which has broadcast rights across Europe) so neither can we assume that HBO value the Sky NZ relationship in the same way. But we shouldn't jump to 'doom and gloom' scenarios either.

[mistaTea]

That is true. Friends of mine (both professional) have a thing called a Kodi Box? and they get all their sports and all the latest movies for free. The guy works in IT and assures me that it is all legal as he is not providing the content but only consuming it but I am sure its a grey area.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/ind...oxes-not-legal

Your friend is deluding himself - Kodi boxes are illegal, and this has gone through the courts now.

And even before it went through court, people damn well knew what they were doing was wrong. On what planet can you pay a one-off $300 fee and then watch unlimited entertainment and sports content for free...forever?

[mistaTea]

Content aggregators are everywhere, just type "torrent sites" or similar into Google.

I agree with your point about the multiple subscriptions getting expensive, but there is a way to have it all at a price point of zero.

I'm not saying it is right, or fair, or moral. But it is real, and it is really hard to compete with zero.

Online piracy, facilitated via torrenting, kodi boxes etc is definitely a big problem for the entire industry (both content aggregators and distributors like Sky, as well as the actual content creators).

And theft is not going away, it is a fact of life unfurtunately.

There are risks with illegally streaming content though (it's not all gravy and people do get burned). However, the only way companies like Sky can combat piracy is to

1. Provide bundles at a reasonable price, rewarding loyalty
2. Enhance Usability across platforms

Even then, there will always be people who will steal no matter what.

[blackcap]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/ind...oxes-not-legal

Your friend is deluding himself - Kodi boxes are illegal, and this has gone through the courts now.

And even before it went through court, people damn well knew what they were doing was wrong. On what planet can you pay a one-off $300 fee and then watch unlimited entertainment and sports content for free...forever?

Totally agree with you. We do have a go at him from time to time, I am very uncomfortable with it. But as a society many people have accepted it as "ok" because "sky are just rip offs anyway" and people turn a blind eye.
I was unaware about owning the box being illegal, I may do some searching through the courts. What annoys me too is the same with those that rip off insurance you hurt everyone else. So because he is streaming for free, I pay a larger SKY bill and that is mildly annoying. But I know many people that do have these Kodi boxes and it is an ongoing problem for firms like SKY.

[blackcap]

Even then, there will always be people who will steal no matter what.

Yeah my greenie friend falls in this category. He is a professional (wont say what profession) and loves his rugger and cricket. But he really is poor due to financial mismanagement on his wife's part. (always asking me for a loan to cover stuff like car needing a warrant etc). So he could no way afford a SKY bill. He will stream for life. Has done for the past 10+ years and I do not see anything that will stop him. Unless the courts start imposing large fines for end consumers that get caught streaming illegally.

[mistaTea]

I was unaware about owning the box being illegal

The Kodi box in and of itself is not illegal I don't think.

But they have been sold with pre-installed software that allow users to break geographical boundaries and stream content they are not entitled to stream.

Kind of like VPN's I think - which is a related issue. Chris Keall from The Herald describes VPN's as a 'grey area'. Horse sh1t - it is blatantly wrong. How can me using a VPN to trick the BBC (for example) into thinking I am based in the UK so I can stream their content for free be a 'grey area'?

Found this blog on piracy just before, pretty much sums up my views. There is no way you will ever get rid of theft (people have always found ways to thieve...), but you can significantly reduce the problem by making it easier and a more enjoyable experience to do the right thing: https://www.viaccess-orca.com/blog/s...digital-piracy