SKT Sky Network Television Limited.

[mistaTea]

Mista,

In my view sometimes one needs to look beyond what the company is saying, particularly if invested in the company.

A week or two ago you expressed surprise that no one had made an offer to take SKY over.

The value of the equity in SKY has fallen from $6 at the start of 2015 to 26 cents today.

Directors, neither past nor present, have been buying and there hasn’t exactly been a flood of folk trying to take the company private in that timeframe. Both are telling imo.

Poster Ogg told us a week ago the $100m bond wasn’t a problem.

IMO In the current environment that bond is quite possibly unable to be refinanced. (At least not in full)

The recent accelerating decline in the share price, (in spite of a reasonably logical view that if folk are quarantined at home for 14 days then you’d have to figure they would watch a bit of telly) coupled with increasing volume, suggesting knowledgeable and informed institutional investors, simply does not bode well.

They can’t leave the Bond refinancing until the end of the year. No board can sit there in December with a $100m debt repayable in March having not done anything about it.

A rights issue, assuming they could even get one away at this depressed level, would effectively mean many shareholders are going to be diluted out of existence. The catastrophic decline in the share price over such a long period (and it’s been one way traffic for a long time) is likely to mean many existing holders wouldn’t contribute funds to a cap raise.

There was a very well regarded poster on here about a decade ago. I periodically review one of his / her posts which is below.

(1)Don't buy stocks that are in a downtrend.
(2) Don't buy without first setting a point at which you will accept that you have made a mistake.
(3) When/if this point is hit, SELL. Immediately. You can always buy back when/if the trend reverses.
(4) Never add to a losing position. Don't average down. EVER.
(5) Be very careful not to get caught up in other peoples enthusiasm for a particular stock.
(6) Meticulous calculations of a stocks "worth" are meaningless if the market disagrees with you.
(7) Remember, if your opinion is at variance with market sentiment, YOU are wrong, not the market!

All the best with your investment.
GLTA.

That is a really good post, thank you so much for sharing. I particularly like the 7 points you share at the end - I will steal some of that add to my checklist.

I shared some sentiments on HotCopper the other day, that went a little like this...

"And time will tell if I am a brilliant investor, unswayed by market sentiment - only ever looking at the facts and forming my own views, Mr Market be damned.

Or a complete f*cking idiot who thinks too highly of himself and should stop destroying his family's wealth and just invest in the S&P 500."

I have done all my buying now, and am sitting at an average price of about $1 per share. That would give Sky a market cap of approx $436M - not much more than the value of the SANZAAR rights they hold for 2021 - 2025 (inclusive).

So let's see how we go - if it all goes horribly wrong for me, no doubt a period of deep self-reflection will be in order.

[blackcap]

Good post and great advice. Are you talking about Phaedrus?

I believe it was KW.

[mistaTea]

Before asking existing shareholders for more $$$ while the SP is so low and everything looks so grim with sport being postponed or cancelled, I would be negotiating with Westpac to see if the loan facility reduction can be delayed by 12 months. With a condition that no dividends can be paid until the loan facility is reduced to $150M (not that we were in any danger of that happening! Ha!)

Given the COVID-19 havoc that is being wreaked across the economy, banks seem to be playing their part in supporting business.

If they did that then the bonds could be repaid with earnings and the existing banking facility.

Raising capital now would really need to be an absolute last resort.

[Jay]

Interesting that you get a different deal Ratkin. I get the following:

So, we’ve added complimentary Sky Movies to your subscription for the next three months. There’s a great range of movies to keep you entertained. This will be available to view by Wednesday 25 March if not before. A change like this takes us a little while to roll out through our system!

I got the same blackcap, may be ratkin already has movies, as I did not

[mistaTea]

I got the same blackcap, may be ratkin already has movies, as I did not

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/sport/new...ectid=12318684

Yes the offer you receive is dependent on what packages you already have.

If you already have Sport + Movies, but not Entertainment then they will offer Entertainment for 3 months.

If you subscribe to the whole shebang, then they will give you 4 Box Office movies on the house (for three months I assume).

Condition will obviously be that you don't unsubscribe from Sport. Warrior playing today...and there is a good chance they will still have a NZ ruby comp at this stage.

So current sport subscribers could do ok out of this...still get a reasonable amount of live sport given the circumstances and some other content to try for free for a few months.

[trackers]

I got the same blackcap, may be ratkin already has movies, as I did not

Aww whatttt, I only got Entertainment and Soho lol

[mistaTea]

Aww whatttt, I only got Entertainment and Soho lol

Christ, that's like $35 a month worth! Lucky you.

I have Sky Sport NOW and have been offered zilch They can't really give me a PROMO code for 3 months free NEON because I could take the offer and then end my sport sub anyway!

Different for satellite customers - they can control that more easily.

[moimoi]

Phaedrus, who in a post about downtrends was re-educating Tricha. ;-)

4 Box Office movies on the house per month for 3 months.

Caution warranted with comparing price paid for value of SANZAAR rights (or any other rights) against market cap. Price paid for sporting rights negotiated 3 months ago, won't equate to rights value now with said sports not being played.

GLTA.

[Entrep]

$85 million market cap. This is absolutely astonishing. Selling is relentless. I personally think SPK will come in and take this over when everything is said and done.

[steveb]

there's a lot of entertainment dollars out there not getting spent with a lockdown in 48 hrs this could be a boon for streaming services