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  1. #2001
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ogg View Post
    This is all investors need to know. Over the past 5 years Sky has made loads of cash. The question is, what will happen in the next 5 years.

    The market is pricing the stock as if it is the next "BlockBuster Video" that will collapse. If that was the case, why hasn't it happened already? BlockBuster filed for bankruptcy in 2010.

    The reason Sky is still around and always will be is because Satellite Television has good latency, reliability and high bandwidth (when transferring one way data to large audiences). Different technology has different benefits and draw backs. There's no perfect system. Streaming has downsides too.

    There's also a certain social aspect of watching direct TV as opposed to streaming content on demand. People like to watch what other people are watching at the same time. People also like it when someone else (like SKY) decided what to show and what not to show. People like to switch on the TV and not have to think - especially older audiences.

    Furthermore, broadband speeds aren't getting any faster in New Zealand, and we're already at unlimited data plans. We've reached the peak in terms of penetration of streaming. The numbers are showing that satellite subscription cancellations are slowing, and will likely in my opinion, reverse and start to grow again.

    Here's a good example. My sister got Disney+ a few months ago. She said it's great, but sometimes their modem plays up and it disconnects. She also had to buy a new TV because of the App. It does work on the kids tablets but sometimes that can be difficult for them to navigate on the computer. Sometimes it logs out etc or the wifi drops out. Where as with Sky you just flick on Cartoon Network and it goes. The point is, she has both Disney+ and Sky because they're both good value.
    Mate I think we are Soul Mates.

    Where have you been over the last 2 years while I have been getting hammered by most ST contributors?!

    😂

  2. #2002
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    It’s also damn convenient to have the Freeview channels on the same platform as the premium content.

    So you have one place to build up your watch list of the cool BBC shows on TVNZ (for example) as well as premium content like HBO, Sport etc.

    Satellite has many many advantages over streaming but right now their packages feel very expensive compared to OTT providers.

    $40 a month from the get to to get starter + my Sky - before you have even added the packages you want.

    So streaming will be a cheaper way for sky to broadcast (and therefore offer more competitive packages), but I agree that satellite ain’t going anywhere anytime soon.

  3. #2003
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    Hmmm. Will 5g disrupt satellite TV?

  4. #2004
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    Quote Originally Posted by huxley View Post
    Hmmm. Will 5g disrupt satellite TV?
    No more than fibre broadband has?

    5G would be more of a threat to Chorus?

  5. #2005
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    Quote Originally Posted by mistaTea View Post
    Mate I think we are Soul Mates.

    Where have you been over the last 2 years while I have been getting hammered by most ST contributors?!

    I used to be super bearish on Sky.

    I knew when Rupert Murdoch sold his holdings back in 2013 that it was a good move. So many stupid retail investors bought into that placement and now they've lost almost everything.

    I tried to get my Dad to quit Sky so I bought him an Android TV box. He used it for a bit but somehow that ended up collecting dust and he still has Sky. Most of my extended family and a lot of my friends still have Sky. Some have canceled but surprisingly not that many have cancelled.

    It's amazing how the public hate this company so much but yet it still has a massive amount of paying customers and a monopoly.

    What's more, is that the entire country is in lock down and almost all businesses have closed and have no revenue. Yet, people are still happily paying for Sky. It's like toilet paper! You just can't live without it. They know if they stop paying the Sky bill it will turn off. Then what will they do?

    Seriously, people love to watch crap on TV, over and over again and pay for it. It's a great business. It's just comes down to price. I wouldn't pay $2 per share for Sky, but "Mr Market" is offering 27 cents for this company. Just lol, yes please I'll buy.

  6. #2006
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    hmmm Linear TV may move into production rather than distribution, networks doing TV will probably be more producers of content and change to use Netflix as a distribution hub as long as it's exclusive. We're probably five years away from something like that.

  7. #2007
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    I knew when Rupert Murdoch sold his holdings back in 2013 that it was a good move. So many stupid retail investors bought into that placement and now they've lost almost everything.
    Here's one "stupid investor" who received his SKY shares in exchange for shares in INL - Independent Newspapers Ltd., publishers of the Dominion and the Evening Post. Only held them for a few years and sold at a handsome profit! Never did understand the technological issues sufficiently.


  8. #2008
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    Maybe its the declining cash flows that have punters worried

    Last year or so under investment and declining dividends has help boost FCF … maybe the $90m and $55m forecasts aren't sustainable?
    Attached Images Attached Images
    Last edited by winner69; 04-04-2020 at 02:27 PM.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  9. #2009
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    Quote Originally Posted by huxley View Post
    Hmmm. Will 5g disrupt satellite TV?
    Isn’t 5G going to kill us all if the virus don’t get us first
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  10. #2010
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Maybe its the declinngcash flows that have punters worried

    Last year or so under investment and declining dividends has help FCF … maybe the $90m and $55m forecasts aren't sustainable?
    That's just one metric used to value the company. Free cash flow can be effected by all sorts of different things.

    The main metric is subscriber/customer count.

    As per recent half year results, they're on track for one million customers by 2021.

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