SKT Sky Network Television Limited.

[Ogg]

From reading their website Black Crane are investors, not company managers. More likely to look for a buyer once/if they take control of SKY?

I did some more research on them.

It looks like they have a new website that is in test mode but you can still view it, just lol. Just type in the IP address instead of the domain name.

http://142.93.43.240/

Here is their fund fact sheet:

http://142.93.43.240/uploads/2020/02...ctsheet-v3.pdf

Also found an unlisted youtube video of him from 2017.



I dunno what he's up to but from what I've read he's basically an event driven investor.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Event-driven_investing

...a hedge fund investment strategy that seeks to exploit pricing inefficiencies that may occur before or after a corporate event, such as an earnings call, bankruptcy, merger, acquisition, or spinoff...

Their average fund size investment is $10m-$50m. So I assume he's still got some ammunition left and will continue buying Sky shares, especially considering their average is 35c and the stock is trading at 27c. He'll probably keep buying and then hope an "event" happens in the short term.

So in other words, he's just a punter like me but with deeper pockets

[mistaTea]

...a hedge fund investment strategy that seeks to exploit pricing inefficiencies that may occur before or after a corporate event, such as an earnings call, bankruptcy, merger, acquisition, or spinoff...

Their average fund size investment is $10m-$50m. So I assume he's still got some ammunition left and will continue buying Sky shares, especially considering their average is 35c and the stock is trading at 27c. He'll probably keep buying and then hope an "event" happens in the short term.

He could buy up to 19.99% of the company if he wanted to for about $26M total spend at current prices.

One can only speculate on how big a stake he will purchase and what he is going to do... but he may use his experience and connections to help Sky refinance their debt facilities on more favourable terms as a first step.
Ultimately he will want to find a buyer for the company by the looks of things.

I like his consolidated portfolio approach...very Charlie Munger. Go in big for a small set of high conviction stocks that you really understand.

Let's see if Black Crane's interest in the company triggers interest from any of the other Big Boys.

[winner69]

So in other words, he's just a punter like me but with deeper pockets

Agree with you there Ogg ...Black Crane just taking a punt and not the white knight riding into town to save Sky

Apparently plenty of black cranes around ...not like black swans

[winner69]

I see that that Black Crane guy used to be with UBS ...must have had a chat with his old mates as they buying as well.

[mistaTea]

Agree with you there Ogg ...Black Crane just taking a punt and not the white knight riding into town to save Sky

Apparently plenty of black cranes around ...not like black swans

I think it is more than a ‘punt’ actually.

His investment style is to consolidate on high conviction stocks. So he researched the sh1t out of them before he starts buying in.

He also takes an active investment style - i.e once he takes control of a large block of shares he rolls his sleeves up and works with the board to make the changes he feels are needed.

We can’t know what his end game is here - but I don’t get the feeling that he has bought Sky as a ‘punt’ just because it is statistically cheap.

[mistaTea]

I see that that Black Crane guy used to be with UBS ...must have had a chat with his old mates as they buying as well.

They were the same trades.

I think black crane facilitated the share purchase via a brokerage account he must hold with his old buddies at UBS.

I posted about this previously - you can see both UBS and black crane announcements shows a share purchase or 3.3M and 7M on the same day...

[winner69]

They were the same trades.

I think black crane facilitated the share purchase via a brokerage account he must hold with his old buddies at UBS.

I posted about this previously - you can see both UBS and black crane announcements shows a share purchase or 3.3M and 7M on the same day...

Not thinking too well on a sunny Sunday but why do they both say becoming Substantial shareholder if they are they are the same trades.

UBS list of transactions interesting ..bit of shorting going on?

[Ogg]

Agree with you there Ogg ...Black Crane just taking a punt and not the white knight riding into town to save Sky

Apparently plenty of black cranes around ...not like black swans

He did work for 10 years in UBS's mergers and acquisitions division, specialising in telecommunication companies.

Their fund has also been long on Chorus since 2014.

I doubt he's put in millions of dollars in Sky without picking up the phone and making some calls to some of his contacts. He's probably actively working on an arrangement now.

Their fund has also been hot on convertible notes. Did a deal with Wellard ASX:WLD.

My guess is that he will keep buying at these levels and work his way up to 10% holdings to block any other take over attempt. Then he will try and find a buyer from Asia (where all his UBS contacts are from). If that all fails he'll likely refinance that $100m bonds into $100m convertible notes.

He'll be looking to screw over retail holders for sure. I'm just lucky my average is a lot lower than his

[Ogg]

Not thinking too well on a sunny Sunday but why do they both say becoming Substantial shareholder if they are they are the same trades.

UBS list of transactions interesting ..bit of shorting going on?

UBS is Black Crane's broker.

There trading desk must have gotten wind of it and tried to make some money off the volatile liquidity.

[mistaTea]

He'll be looking to screw over retail holders for sure.

I doubt very much he has bought into Sky to "screw over" retail holders. That may well be the end result, depending on what happens from here...but he will have found an opportunity here and will try to extract as much value as possible for his fund, that's all. Nothing sinister, I doubt.

My guess is that he will keep buying at these levels and work his way up to 10% holdings to block any other take over attempt. Then he will try and find a buyer from Asia (where all his UBS contacts are from). If that all fails he'll likely refinance that $100m bonds into $100m convertible notes.

Anything possible I suppose - but we do need to be careful at this point not to get too carried away with the speculation and second-guessing. It is probably enough at this stage just to recognise that Black Crane have viewed Sky as significantly discounted to intrinsic value from 70c per share. When the price crashed it just became an event that enabled BC to buy even more shares for way cheaper.

Issuing $100M convertible notes would need to get other shareholders on board - like NZ Rugby and RugbyPass. The quoted value of their significant holdings have dived - and I doubt they would be giving Black Crane a sweet convertible note deal, which could ultimately significantly dilute their already-undervalued stock, unless it was an absolute last resort.

Many, many things could happen from here.

If we are to play the guessing game, I speculate a more likely outcome is that he helps get Sky more attractive financing terms (possibly from overseas banks) and then, once that is sorted and the notion that Sky can't pay it's debt and is going to go bust is gone, lock in a buyer.
5 Bagger minimum for him in a year or so. That would be an incredible outcome.

But then again, I am just some guy who doesn't know jack.