SKT Sky Network Television Limited.

[mistaTea]

No argument on that mT. I was only making the point that there is at least one situation when the shareprice ceases to be "completely irrelevant".

Yeah it is a fair point - there are all sorts of those situations. Even the most hardcore 'deep value' investor is still exposed to Market Risk.

That Market Risk could manifest in a number of ways:

• Even if the investor is right about the 'true intrinsic value' of the business...the market may never agree, and the price of the stock may never appreciate to IV.
• Even worse, the price may fall further and then stay low forever
• If the price falls further - as you point out - an unwanted takeover could ensue, which would force the investor to realise a loss.

The Market Risk is mitigated to a large degree by the investor by only buying when he believes the price includes a large margin of safety. But even then - that only mitigates the risk, it does not eliminate it.

Risk is just something I have to live with, but let's hope your example doesn't turn into prophecy!

I was thinking a bit more about an 'unwanted takeover' situation. I still think the offer to realistically take the company private would need to be significantly higher than blackcap thinks.

Using NZR as just one substantial shareholder as an example. Their deal with Sky was done based on a SP of ~$1.10 per share from memory. A 60c/share takeover would represent a significant amount of money for them (loss). Beyond the money though, their ~5% stake in Sky is a very strategic asset for them. It gives them a seat at the table to influence how Sky represent and promote rugby on its wide range of platforms. To give up that kind of strategic asset, one would think it would really need to be worth NZR's while.

If I was a gambling man, I would say there have already been expressions of interest. But the offers may have been sub $1/share - and have been rejected by The Board and key shareholders.

[macduffy]

If I was a gambling man, I would say there have already been expressions of interest. But the offers may have been sub $1/share - and have been rejected by The Board and key shareholders.

Depending on how any such expressions of interest were expressed, the board would have to consider whether or not they were legally obliged to advise shareholders of the circumstances.

[mistaTea]

Depending on how any such expressions of interest were expressed, the board would have to consider whether or not they were legally obliged to advise shareholders of the circumstances.

Correct, if someone came with a 'firm offer' then the board may be forced to present it to shareholders (even if they think it is low), subject to an independent review etc.

I don't think anyone has made a formal offer.

But I do think there are likely to be those who have started to kick the tyres a bit, and guage what The Board (and potentially some of the large sharehodlers) would expect in terms of price.

If the expected price is higher than any of these potential buyers are willing to pay then that could be the end of the story.

[mistaTea]

https://www.sky.com/shop/tv/disney-plus/

Even though Disney have launched their own OTT service, they are still open to deals with aggregators it seems. Netflix currently have a wholesale deal with Spark, why not do a deal with Sky and let their growing library of Netflix originals aggregate with Sky's HBO, Showtime etc content?

The ability to bundle multiple subs so that all content is managed in a single user-friendly platform would be an incredibly valuable service imo which should boost Sky TV subs. Martin Stewart has prophesised that ultimately the fragmentation we are currently witnessing will come back to bundling in some shape or form.

Spark Sport content could even be bundled in...we have a wholesale deal for Lightbox already (and will have a deal for the new Lightbox-NEON service). Why not a deal for sport? I think the Spark CEO would be open to it.

Not sure if they could do an integration with MySky too like how Sky UK have done with their Sky Q boxes. I believe the Sky Q boxes are a lot more advanced that MySky.

And why bother spending $$$ on a dying platform. Satellite will be around for ages, and Sky will keep hundreds of thousands of paying satellite customers for some time yet, but it is unlikely they will grow the book. Most investment will be in streaming, and I agree with that approach.

[Ogg]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/121...with-media-aid

Television channel Three owner MediaWorks, Sky Television and state-owned TVNZ are likely to be the biggest beneficiaries of the two largest elements of the package, together worth about $38 million.

Sky TV should benefit from the NZ On Air funding break, and from not having to pay Kordia to transmit its free-to-air channel Prime.

[mistaTea]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/121...with-media-aid

If we get $6M too it would be as though the taxpayer shouted our company Lightbox!

In the words of the infamous Jake ‘The Muss’ Heke: CHUR!

[Ogg]

Interesting read:

By 2019, the [streaming] market was deemed to have become oversaturated and fragmented, as the sheer number of services has led to increased diffusion of content among them, induced by studios using exclusive rights to their content as a selling point for their own new services (such as Disney+, HBO Max, and NBCUniversal's upcoming Peacock), and existing services (such as Netflix) being required to pay premiums to maintain rights to popular archive programs or lose them to rivals, and increase investment in original content as a selling point. Some critics have argued that the fragmentation of the market has defeated the purpose of cord-cutting, as consumers are now being required to spend money on multiple different services in order to access their desired content, and that these inconveniences (including fluctuating rights to popular content) may cause consumers to resort to piracy out of frustration. Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cord-cutting

The streaming market has become too saturated. Consumers have to subscribe to multiple streaming platforms in order to have access to their favorite content.

In other words, the incentive to cancel Sky and replace it with a single streaming service is now no longer possible. This maybe a reason why Sky satellite cancellations are slowing.

For example, a Sky customer might subscribe to Netflix for one month when new exclusive content is released but then cancel the subscription and move to Disney+ for a few months, then to Lightbox (HBO) etc. This maybe the new normal. Another example would be subscribing to Spark Sport for the cricket season and then cancelling.

It's likely that Sky will remain an 'anchor' platform in the typical kiwi household because of it's sport content and large variety of other television offerings (news, documentary, specialty channels etc).

[Zaphod]

Interesting read:



The streaming market has become too saturated. Consumers have to subscribe to multiple streaming platforms in order to have access to their favorite content.

In other words, the incentive to cancel Sky and replace it with a single streaming service is now no longer possible. This maybe a reason why Sky satellite cancellations are slowing.

For example, a Sky customer might subscribe to Netflix for one month when new exclusive content is released but then cancel the subscription and move to Disney+ for a few months, then to Lightbox (HBO) etc. This maybe the new normal. Another example would be subscribing to Spark Sport for the cricket season and then cancelling.

It's likely that Sky will remain an 'anchor' platform in the typical kiwi household because of it's sport content and large variety of other television offerings (news, documentary, specialty channels etc).

Couldn't agree more!

To add to the above, I am now spending more time finding content to watch than I am watching the content itself.

[Dlownz]

Maybe it's time for sky to make some announment to get this ball rolling again.
Surprised nzru haven't announced a resumption of rugby again nz sides in May like the nrl.

[mistaTea]

Surprised nzru haven't announced a resumption of rugby again nz sides in May like the nrl.

Well Sport still won't be allowed under Level 3. Level 3 goes for at least 2 weeks (until midnight 11 May). If we drop to Level 2 from then I am highly confident that there will be some local Super Rugby derby matches to look forward to. If NZ and Aus governments agree to trans-tasman travel soon, then even more possibilities could open up.

But it will all hinge on how long we are in Level 3 for. So even though Sky and NZRU are no doubt working on 'the plan' right now, and engaging with the government etc...they will want to announce something when they are sure it is going to happen.

Let's hope Kiwis still follow the rules so that we don't have a spike in cases over the next couple of weeks. If we ended up in L3 for a protracted period of time then we could soon get to the point that the rest of 2020 is a write off in terms of rugby.