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21-05-2020, 11:29 AM
#2261
Member
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21-05-2020, 11:36 AM
#2262
Originally Posted by tga_trader
At what point do they decide to privatise? Is that was this 'equity raise' is about?
If this pushes the SP down to $0.20 (for arguments sake) the cap is only $87M, and they're still expecting net profit of $20-25M....
You have to add the new capital, plus forecast profit is $5-$15m (so call it $10m) before non-cash (read write-downs) adjustments.
Valuation post capital raising looks ultra-rich to me!
Last edited by Balance; 21-05-2020 at 11:45 AM.
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21-05-2020, 11:51 AM
#2263
Pretty margins in reselling fibre are notoriously thin. I suspect they are coming at this from a reducing churn angle?
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21-05-2020, 01:01 PM
#2264
Speeding ticket last week. ...nothing to disclose they said
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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21-05-2020, 01:03 PM
#2265
Originally Posted by winner69
Speeding ticket last week. ...nothing to disclose they said
Certainly nothing to indicate positive news pushing the sp up!
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21-05-2020, 01:04 PM
#2266
Wow. Thought this wouldn't happen for another 6 months.
RIP to anyone not participating in the entitlement.
Looks like I'll be writing a cheque for $51k.
My new average is 15c.
In for a penny, in for a pound.
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21-05-2020, 01:32 PM
#2267
a 1: 2.83 @ 12c per share would be exactly the same if they did a 1:1 @ 34c per share (which happens to be 1c/share greater than the last trade before the Halt).
So it is a very clever way of offering a 'heavily discounted' rights issue.
That said, existing shareholders who still believe Sky have a profitable future would be crazy not to take the offer (if then can afford to). Their equity would be savagely reduced by non-participation to the point that they would probably never break even again.
For shareholders who have second thoughts about Sky's viability as a going concern (despite the injection of up to $157M cash) then throwing more good money after bad would be illogical.
Ultimately diversifying into Broadband and Mobile in addition to maintaining key partnerships (Vodafone TV plus potentially new partnerships with energy companies etc) will be a good thing. Yes, Broadband is a crowded market - but Sky have a large customer base to market too. If they get their pricing right it has every chance of being successful.
Moving to offer Sky Go as a standalone will also be a good move. Some satellite customers will hand back the STB, but so be it. Sky GO has improved dramatically and would be a cheaper way of offering a streaming option to the many customers who still enjoy the more traditional bundles. The recent move to allow casting was a reasonably strong signal that this was where they were going with the product.
Standalone Sky GO and Vodafone TV customers should ultimately have access to better bundles. There should be no need, for example, to force a customer to purchase Starter as an entry package. Because there are no costs with satellite and STB installation, there should be much more flexibility in Bundles. If a customer just wants to subscribe to Sport for example, offer a standalone price. $39.99/month Standalone but only $29.99/month if you are adding it to an entertainment bundle etc.
A lot of possibilities. Lower average revenue per customer for sure, but many more customers.
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21-05-2020, 01:37 PM
#2268
Reason why it is a 2.83 : 1 rights issue is because the underwriters are only prepared to back the deal on such a basis. It’s pointing a gun to the head of existing shareholders.
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21-05-2020, 01:44 PM
#2269
Originally Posted by Balance
Reason why it is a 2.83 : 1 rights issue is because the underwriters are only prepared to back the deal on such a basis. It’s pointing a gun to the head of existing shareholders.
I don't think so.
It's to flush out all the cash strapped "ma and pa" retail holders. "Goldman and Co" will pick up their cheap shares at 12, and will likely accumulate more after. Then when the dividends are about start again and the turn around is complete, they'll sell it off to a hedge fund and make a huge profit. Probably already have a buyer lined up. Standard stuff really.
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21-05-2020, 01:45 PM
#2270
Originally Posted by Balance
Reason why it is a 2.83 : 1 rights issue is because the underwriters are only prepared to back the deal on such a basis. It’s pointing a gun to the head of existing shareholders.
A bit like Metro ah Balance...Give Bain a call.
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