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03-06-2020, 10:44 AM
#2551
Originally Posted by k14
Wouldn't they hold the stake longer term if their cash flow holds up in the next 12 months and see if longer term that Sky can return to paying dividends?
if Sky resume dividends, they will be able to pay out maybe 1c per share initially. They would need 110 of those to get their money back.
I can't know what they will or won't do. But Sky's intrinsic value as represented by a $/share value is now lower than when they got their shares (since their are so many more shares outstanding).
Using completely made up numbers, let's just say that Sky TV now has an intrinsic value of 40c per share.
And let's say that the company does well executing their strategy, and the Market values the company at 45c per share.
When NZR are allowed to sell their shares, the most logical thing to do in this scenario might be to dump their shares and grab what they can. However, that would still represent a big loss to them.
The only 'comfort' might be that they did not actually party with any of their own cash to acquire the shares. They just took less cash for the 5 years of SANZAAR.
As I say, I don't know how they will play it from here. But it wouldn't surprise me if they have now just 'given up' on the stock and will sell it for whatever they can when the time comes to take the cash.
Last edited by mistaTea; 03-06-2020 at 10:51 AM.
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03-06-2020, 11:05 AM
#2552
Member
Will the nz rugby relationship with Sky turn sour after this? What are the ramifications if it did?
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03-06-2020, 12:05 PM
#2553
If NZR now feel aggrieved or less favourably disposed to Sky, that might make them favourably disposed to Spark when sports events are next on the broadcasting agenda.
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03-06-2020, 12:08 PM
#2554
The more I think about this the more stupid this capital raising looks
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03-06-2020, 12:14 PM
#2555
Originally Posted by airedale
If NZR now feel aggrieved or less favourably disposed to Sky, that might make them favourably disposed to Spark when sports events are next on the broadcasting agenda.
Entirely possible.
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03-06-2020, 12:14 PM
#2556
Originally Posted by Cadalac123
The more I think about this the more stupid this capital raising looks
Should have done it last year.
Could have raised closer to $400M and not diluted existing shareholders who can’t participate by nearly as much.
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03-06-2020, 12:31 PM
#2557
Originally Posted by Cadalac123
The more I think about this the more stupid this capital raising looks
The timing is terrible. Management knew this was coming a long way off, yet waited till,well now. Just diabolical in my humble opinion. Why wait when you have no other option but to go heavy dilute. A year ago they could have got the same amount of money for the fraction of the dilution. Everyone would be happy. Now existing shareholders are pissed. Not many would be able to participate now when a while back it may not have been a problem. Existing shareholders have been shafted at the expense of new shareholders.
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03-06-2020, 03:55 PM
#2558
Significantly lower trading volume today.
Ogg’s prediction on trading patterns and price action very accurate so far.
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03-06-2020, 04:13 PM
#2559
Originally Posted by mistaTea
Significantly lower trading volume today.
Ogg’s prediction on trading patterns and price action very accurate so far.
Not rocket science. Following similar trading patters as other companies who have done pro rata entitlement placements at step discounts recently, KMD ASX:SXL etc
SXL couldn't even explain their recent rise: https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/202005...gr2lxrm1lm.pdf
Very confidence Sky will be back above 20 within 2-3 weeks after retail entitlement closes.
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03-06-2020, 04:59 PM
#2560
Short positions closing will give a little bump up too . Sad because this company has some potential stabilising tailwinds . I wouldn’t say it’s going to have explosive growth but the FCF potential is there
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