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  1. #2651
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    Quote Originally Posted by mistaTea View Post
    Yes all true.

    But IF infratil do decide that it makes sense now to have another crack at effectively merging Vodafone and sky...

    Now is the time. Sky still has ~$50M of raised capital above the $100M to pay back the bonds.

    A big chunk of that will need to be spent on getting ready for Sky Broadband in 2021.

    Well, if IFT buy sky now that money can be used for other stuff since they already have Vodafone.
    True. I hope Goldman Sachs are actively pumping the company to NBC and other potential American buyers at the same time so that we get a multitude of competing bids.

  2. #2652
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    The good news is that I don't think the post entitlement pump has started yet. Recent gains are more likely part of the broader market recovery of Covid-19.

    Ideally if the share price can reach low to mid 20's by next month, then a take over comes, it should provide a better platform. Throw in a bidding war and the stock could very much reach 50c without being too stretched valuation wise. At that price it's about ~$850m valuation, this is very top end though, and absolute bull case.

    Most likely nothing happens and stock trades in the mid 20's until further news.

  3. #2653
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    Is anyone buying on market at the moment? Very tempting for me.

  4. #2654
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    Quote Originally Posted by k14 View Post
    Is anyone buying on market at the moment? Very tempting for me.

    Go on ....buy now ...never be cheaper

    Delay means you miss out on the cheap ones ...or even worse if a takeover offer comes tomorrow and you miss out altogether.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  5. #2655
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    I looked again at the Infratil announcement just now.

    - The placement size is roughly the same size as Sky TV market cap.

    - They own 50% of Vodafone.

    - Commerce commission should give the "green light" now that Spark has entered the Sports TV market.

    - UBS is doing the book build. Which is the same investment bank involved with Sky.

    - Wording in announcement: "...take advantage of new opportunities that may arise as a result of current market conditions."

    - Wording in announcement: "...work underway to reset strategy and establish the new target operating model and market position across key customer segments"

    mmm, is a take over of Sky by Infratil happening soon? Nah, this is all just a coincident...
    Last edited by Ogg; 09-06-2020 at 01:52 PM.

  6. #2656
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ogg View Post
    I looked again at the Infratil announcement just now.

    - The placement size is roughly the same size as Sky TV market cap.

    - They own 50% of Vodafone.

    - Commerce commission should give the "green light" now that Spark has entered the Sports TV market.

    - UBS is doing the book build. Which is the same investment bank involved with Sky.

    - Wording in announcement: "...take advantage of new opportunities that may arise as a result of current market conditions."

    - Wording in announcement: "...work underway to reset strategy and establish the new target operating model and market position across key customer segments"

    mmm, is a take over of Sky by Infratil happening soon? Nah, this is all just a coincident...
    If they get in early they could probably pick SKY up for 25-30 cents....

  7. #2657
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    Quote Originally Posted by blackcap View Post
    If they get in early they could probably pick SKY up for 25-30 cents....
    That's less than ASB intrinsic valuation.

    I think what's happening is that Infratil is trying to act quickly and take over Sky before the American Giants (Comcast, Discovery) have a chance to mobilize.

    The "quick vs the big."

  8. #2658
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    SKY TV is an infrastructure asset now?

  9. #2659
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    Quote Originally Posted by blackcap View Post
    If they get in early they could probably pick SKY up for 25-30 cents....
    I think 30c would be the absolute minimum an offer would need to be to get past the board.

    And that would only MAYBE succeed if IFT were the only party bidding for the business.

    30c is only ~NZ$500M. That is only about US$330M. Peanuts for NBC and other big US companies.
    Last edited by mistaTea; 09-06-2020 at 02:04 PM.

  10. #2660
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    Quote Originally Posted by huxley View Post
    SKY TV is an infrastructure asset now?
    Brings in ~$700m revenue every year. Call it what you want.

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