SKT Sky Network Television Limited.

[tqtq]

And how content aggregators (yes there is a future in this model) might make money from content providers such as Disney+ that offer their own streaming service: https://medium.com/wetek/content-agg...g-ddca6d49a337

[dompf]

And how content aggregators (yes there is a future in this model) might make money from content providers such as Disney+ that offer their own streaming service: https://medium.com/wetek/content-agg...g-ddca6d49a337

There's a place for aggregation on TV given all the options in the world with what content people want to watch. I'm all in for aggregated content where you pay for the content you actually consume and want. Definitely a good model IMO - instead of having several subscriptions which is a juggle to manage.

[bottomfeeder]

Mind you a takeover would have to pay more than the 13.7 cents per share on the NZX. Who knows what the final price would have to be. May be too expensive.

[tqtq]

There's a place for aggregation on TV given all the options in the world with what content people want to watch. I'm all in for aggregated content where you pay for the content you actually consume and want. Definitely a good model IMO - instead of having several subscriptions which is a juggle to manage.

If it's all in the Sky / Neon ecosystem then Sky becomes the ramp / promotional platform for those content providers. It works better than an android / smart tv service because Sky has a billing service attached to it.

[tqtq]

You'd have to think 2x min from where it's sitting at the moment. It's mind blowing how undervalued this stock is.

[tqtq]

Mind you a takeover would have to pay more than the 13.7 cents per share on the NZX. Who knows what the final price would have to be. May be too expensive.

You'd have to think 2x min from where it's sitting at the moment. It's mind blowing how undervalued this stock is.

[Ogg]

Mind you a takeover would have to pay more than the 13.7 cents per share on the NZX. Who knows what the final price would have to be. May be too expensive.

It's easy to work this out.

The Infratil/Brooksfield takeover of Vodafone NZ was done at 7x EBITA.

Given that SKY has confirmed guidance for FY20 and also that analysts, such as the one from Forsyth Barr posted from the user above, suggest that Sky should benefit from Covid, then it's safe to assume that Sky's FY21 guidance is a reasonable figure to rely on.

Sky's FY21 midrange EBITA guidance is $115m (note that this number is 50% less than just 2 years ago). Factor in less CAPEX from the sale of OSB and it's very likely that this figure will be reached.

If we use a conservative 5x EBITA, then that puts the valuation of Sky at $575m or 32c per share. More than a 100% premium to today's closing price.

Will someone pay more than 13.7c? Dunno, you'd have to go down the line and ask the many different companies who might be interested in doing so, such as; Infratil, Brooksfield, Discovery, Comcast (UniverialNBC), AT&T (HBO), ViacomCBS, Telstra, Newscorp, Spark, Trilogy International Partners, Nine Entertainment plus potentially many others etc etc etc

[GR8DAY]

Thanks for all the effort you're putting into this OGG.... really appreciate it. Comforting to see your simple calculations for a possible buyout putting the value at or around 32cps.
I'd be pretty chuffed with 25c TBH, but 32c will do very nicely thank you. Will be buying more tomorrow me thinks. GLTAH.

[tqtq]

It's easy to work this out.

The Infratil/Brooksfield takeover of Vodafone NZ was done at 7x EBITA.

Given that SKY has confirmed guidance for FY20 and also that analysts, such as the one from Forsyth Barr posted from the user above, suggest that Sky should benefit from Covid, then it's safe to assume that Sky's FY21 guidance is a reasonable figure to rely on.

Sky's FY21 midrange EBITA guidance is $115m (note that this number is 50% less than just 2 years ago). Factor in less CAPEX from the sale of OSB and it's very likely that this figure will be reached.

If we use a conservative 5x EBITA, then that puts the valuation of Sky at $575m or 32c per share. More than a 100% premium to today's closing price.

Will someone pay more than 13.7c? Dunno, you'd have to go down the line and ask the many different companies who might be interested in doing so, such as; Infratil, Brooksfield, Discovery, Comcast (UniverialNBC), AT&T (HBO), ViacomCBS, Telstra, Newscorp, Spark, Trilogy International Partners, Nine Entertainment plus potentially many others etc etc etc

That’s a pretty reasonable analysis for today’s market. But kick the can down the road and into the middle of next year when we’ve got several Covid vaccines, sport is back to normal, Rugby Pass is making money, the share market is booming, and the Olympics are on and I think any takeover offer would be at the higher end of that ebitda.

Point being: at least double today. Or even more tomorrow. Or some sweet dividends and a higher sp if there’s not takeover. Woo hoo!

[Ogg]

That’s a pretty reasonable analysis for today’s market. But kick the can down the road and into the middle of next year when we’ve got several Covid vaccines, sport is back to normal, Rugby Pass is making money, the share market is booming, and the Olympics are on and I think any takeover offer would be at the higher end of that ebitda.

Point being: at least double today. Or even more tomorrow. Or some sweet dividends and a higher sp if there’s not takeover. Woo hoo!

This is where me and other members, such as Mista disagree.

Waiting for the rebound, and then selling is risky. The media industry is highly volatile. Just look at the history of Mediaworks! Changes are happening fast in the industry (as they always have been) and it's very uncertain even 12 months from now.

It will likely require more capital and investment to compete with other international companies going forward. For example, Discovery have made moves into NZ with their recent acquisitions. Disney has pulled content from Sky and going direct. Sporting rights are getting more expensive with competition from Spark. There are huge headwinds!

Neon, although growing nicely and benefiting from Covid, will continue to require investment and more content. The margin is small so it's a long term game. Does Sky have what it takes to continue this investment long term? It's likely going to be 10 years+ for decent returns, and even then, likely longer. This game is best played by the big boys, ie Netflix, Amazon etc.

With the selling of OSB it appears that management have finally ceded and now see the best option for investors is to divest and sell off assets. The satellite business and brand will be sold next, ie the entire company.

It's just a question of how much can you sell it for. Will it be $1, like with Stuff.co.nz and OSB. Or will it be like Sky UK and end in a bidding war at 15x EBITA. It think it will be somewhere in between.