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  1. #8241

  2. #8242
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    Quote Originally Posted by bulyak View Post
    Geeze. Dont really follow this thing that closely. But let me get this straight. The company has a mkt cap of 300 Million, no debt and EBITDA of 40 Million for the 6 months ending 31 December. Is now offering broadband to increase stickiness of service, while also developing an inhouse streaming service via its satellite service not using Chrous or Vocus broadband which it might flip to once there is enough customer acquisition in place to pay for more R&D. On top of that, its has the international rights to televise the All Blacks, the golden gem that the owners of UFC thought they could steal from NZRU. Post Covid scare factor, when more sports are on the cards and live TV advertising is back with more international test rugby. Crikey.... This thing is crazy undervalued. The market cap on this should be at least 15 times EBITDA before all this other stuff plays out. I value this thing at a minimum of 1.2 billion or .80 cent a share. And then through in all the opportunities of growth. Yeh, I'm not surprised the big boys in US arent all over this.
    Well I wanted a buck a share but ok you drive a hard bargain! 80c/share will have to do!

  3. #8243
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    Ha. Fair enough. Dont take myself to serious. it does seem odd that it is currently valued at 3.75 X Profit. Me grandpapies fush n chups shop had a better valuation model then that.
    Last edited by bulyak; 18-05-2021 at 05:29 PM.

  4. #8244
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    Quote Originally Posted by bulyak View Post
    Ha. Fair enough. Dont take myself to serious. it does seem odd that it is currently valued at 3.75 X EBITDA. Me grandpapies fush n chups shop had a better valuation model then that.
    I think you are confusing EBITDA with owner earnings.

    EBITDA projected to be around $150M so current MC only 2x.

  5. #8245
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    Seriously. Holy ****. Thankyou Mr T. So what am i missing. Is the NZX just full of boomers that that got rich milking cows or selling their wife's family farm! Followed by 2 institutional investors. The Superfund and ACC. Is there something fundamentally wrong with this company that is baked into it. Or did some investors get their feelings hurt when it reported bad earnings like 18 months ago.

  6. #8246
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    Quote Originally Posted by bulyak View Post
    Seriously. Holy ****. Thankyou Mr T. So what am i missing. Is the NZX just full of boomers that that got rich milking cows or selling their wife's family farm! Followed by 2 institutional investors. The Superfund and ACC. Is there something fundamentally wrong with this company that is baked into it. Or did some investors get their feelings hurt when it reported bad earnings like 18 months ago.
    Mr Market has been very tough on Sky since the Vodafone merger got blocked.

    Even though they have taken giant leaps forward, stabilised the customer base and earnings, brought costs under control…nothing has changed Mr Markets view.

    You can currently by the business for around 4x FCF. I can’t think of any other business that offers that.

    Any news is automatically deemed bad news for Sky. Discovery-Warner merger - must definitely be catastrophic for Sky. SL buying a slice of NZR commercial arm - absolutely has to be fatal to Sky. No other possible ways it could pay out.

    Good news like growth in streaming, stabilisation of sky box base, revenue diversification…ahhh, just too little too late. Might hold earnings short term but the business is still doomed.

    I think I have summed it up, pretty much.

    Not a lot of rational thought imho!

  7. #8247
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    Interesting. Those mega mergers have absolutely no impact on a small player like SKT. They couldnt care two bits about a distributor like SKT in a market of 5milion. It was interesting how Spark completely failed at distribution. It is not as easy as people think. The SKT distribution network is next level and proven. I read somewhere that 30-40% of all houses have one of those dishes on it. Oh well, it has got to bounce back at some stage. There is only 50 companies on the NZX. Ha.... Retirement money has got to go somewhere.

  8. #8248
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    http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...318/346091.pdf

    Was reading Handley's disclosure again. His orders show fractional shares. There's only one broker that offers that service I know of...

    Sharesies



    Here's the math proving it:

    29,311.764705 shares X 0.17 = $4,982.99 (add $15 for first $3000 = $4,997.99, then add the remaining fee cost which is .01% X $1,982.99 = $1.98, then add fee to the total = $4,999.97. In other words that was a $5k sharesis order.

    Think about that. An ex director of a company placing orders through sharesies!



    No wonder this muppet forgot to disclose.

  9. #8249
    Advanced Member Ogg's Avatar
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    Unless he thought Sharesies would be less suspicious as it's held through a custodial and not individual name.

    I'm still waiting for an explanation as to why he disclosed late.


  10. #8250
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ogg View Post
    Unless he thought Sharesies would be less suspicious as it's held through a custodial and not individual name.

    I'm still waiting for an explanation as to why he disclosed late.

    There is only one possible reason.

    He was trying to amass a large ownership stake quietly so that he can vote for the discovery takeover that you keep assuring us is…imminent.

  11. #8251

  12. #8252

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  16. #8256
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  17. #8257
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ogg View Post
    You have to sort all properties by price, then go through the listing and find where it sits compared to other properties that have shown asking pricing. Then roughly guess where it sits. It's easier to do with residential property, commercial a lot harder.
    I did this but can only see that its more than the 8.5m for 33 Sale St... lets assume they sell for 10m, is that more or less than Book Value in Skys accounts and will there be a gain or loss.

  18. #8258
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    Quote Originally Posted by bulyak View Post
    Geeze. Dont really follow this thing that closely. But let me get this straight. The company has a mkt cap of 300 Million, no debt and EBITDA of 40 Million for the 6 months ending 31 December. Is now offering broadband to increase stickiness of service, while also developing an inhouse streaming service via its satellite service not using Chrous or Vocus broadband which it might flip to once there is enough customer acquisition in place to pay for more R&D. On top of that, its has the international rights to televise the All Blacks, the golden gem that the owners of UFC thought they could steal from NZRU. Post Covid scare factor, when more sports are on the cards and live TV advertising is back with more international test rugby. Crikey.... This thing is crazy undervalued. The market cap on this should be at least 15 times EBITDA before all this other stuff plays out. I value this thing at a minimum of 1.2 billion or .80 cent a share. And then through in all the opportunities of growth. Yeh, I'm not surprised the big boys in US arent all over this.
    Deep breath, now repeat with me............

    BUT MUH NETFLICKS!

  19. #8259
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    Quote Originally Posted by Akane View Post
    Deep breath, now repeat with me............

    BUT MUH NETFLICKS!

    Netflix must be growing increasingly concerned with these mergers and takeovers. Facing off against Disney was a big enough blow.

    I don't think any of this will impact Sky too much. We have already started going down the co-exclusive path with Viacom and Discovery. It's the new reality. Though I also think the more OTT services released as part of these co-exclusive deals the better our proposition looks.

    Sure, you could subscribe to HULU, HBO MAX, Peacock, Discovery+ etc... or you could sign up to NEON for $16/month and get all of the main content on a single platform.

    The only way things become really bad for Sky is if the bundle ceased to be the most economical way for consumers to access a broad range of quality content.

    I am sure Chris Keall will be publishing a story soon though with the worst possible case scenario for Sky, and pitching the article as though this "final nail in the Sky coffin" is all but certain.

  20. #8260
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    Quote Originally Posted by Akane View Post
    Deep breath, now repeat with me............

    BUT MUH NETFLICKS!
    Most people I know including me hardly watch Netflix anymore. Those that do cancel after a while and then catch up on the shows they missed. My main interests in front of the TV are gaming and watching sport (living the middle-age dream).

    There ultimately will be people that are going to subscribe to Sky Sports just for a month or two while the sport they watch is on. With more live sport happening again they might keep it longer or because they got a bundled deal. This is the future of sports watching and Sky (probably with thanks to Spark Sport) finally saw the future.

    Sky is priced like a business that is dying rather than re-inventing itself. Alone the name recognition is worth millions. Any future merged company would be amiss not to continue with that name.

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