SKT Sky Network Television Limited.

[Ogg]

Only a small percentage of customers will cancel, provided there is some rugby content on there. Like overseas matches or B grade or high school games etc.

[Ogg]

keep the sevens, touch rugby, women's rugby etc. All the cheap stuff but just have lots of it.

[Ogg]

With OSB gone and the money saved from rugby, that's like $150m a year. Almost half the capitalization of the company.

Probably 20k customers will cancel max. The rest is all cash to be paid out to shareholders.

[Ogg]

Just think about this. Sky lost the rights to NZ cricket, but earnings guidance has been increased. It's as if it had no effected on the company what's so ever. Let's do the same with the rugby.

[jimdog31]

Just think about this. Sky lost the rights to NZ cricket, but earnings guidance has been increased. It's as if it had no effected on the company what's so ever. Let's do the same with the rugby.

Ogg, i feel like we need an intervention here. this is a cry for help 😂

[mistaTea]

I do believe that in 2025 the rugby rights will go to auction. And I do believe that Sky are most likely to be outbid.

Sky will put in another very strong bid, but nothing is worth an infinite price - no matter how wonderful it is.

if Spark win it, they will by definition have needed to overpay for the rights. Not sure Spark shareholders will be too keen on having to pay $120M+ a year just for the broadcast rights, then more money to film local matches etc.
Spark Sport subs will have to go higher than $25/month. Probably $39.99 per month (at least) which is what you can get Sky Sport NOW for currently on a monthly (no contract) plan.

SL/NZR will do handsomely but consumers get screwed again, and I don't believe Spark (or anyone else who might bid) will get as broad a viewership as Sky can with their streaming and satellite capability.

But anyway, if SL are in the picture then it is going to come down to who will pay the most. And, though we will have had a 30 year relationship with NZR by then...and an important relationship at that, I don't think Sky will be able to justify stumping up the cash required in a bidding war situation.

Not keeping the rugby would be a blow for Sky, but there are silver linings too. That is $100M a year suddenly freed up to invest in other content, investments etc. Divvy's too potentially.
A number of people will cancel their Sport subs, but may be inclined to pick up an entertainment bundle instead. Hard to predict, but I don't think you will see an overnight drop of hundreds of thousands of subs because the rugby is gone. ARPU will drop as a number of people cancel the Sport component, but I am not convinced the majority will cancel Sky altogether.

By then we will have a solid broadband offer as well as mobile. And who knows what else.

Hanging onto rugby until 2025 was a good move though to keep everything as steady as can be while we transition to streaming. If we lost rugby now, everyone would lose their minds and the SP would be even lower than it has been as the market would be convinced that Sky cannot exist without NZR.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

I do believe that in 2025 the rugby rights will go to auction. And I do believe that Sky are most likely to be outbid.

Sky will put in another very strong bid, but nothing is worth an infinite price - no matter how wonderful it is.

if Spark win it, they will by definition have needed to overpay for the rights. Not sure Spark shareholders will be too keen on having to pay $120M+ a year just for the broadcast rights, then more money to film local matches etc.
Spark Sport subs will have to go higher than $25/month. Probably $39.99 per month (at least) which is what you can get Sky Sport NOW for currently on a monthly (no contract) plan.

SL/NZR will do handsomely but consumers get screwed again, and I don't believe Spark (or anyone else who might bid) will get as broad a viewership as Sky can with their streaming and satellite capability.

But anyway, if SL are in the picture then it is going to come down to who will pay the most. And, though we will have had a 30 year relationship with NZR by then...and an important relationship at that, I don't think Sky will be able to justify stumping up the cash required in a bidding war situation.

Not keeping the rugby would be a blow for Sky, but there are silver linings too. That is $100M a year suddenly freed up to invest in other content, investments etc. Divvy's too potentially.
A number of people will cancel their Sport subs, but may be inclined to pick up an entertainment bundle instead. Hard to predict, but I don't think you will see an overnight drop of hundreds of thousands of subs because the rugby is gone. ARPU will drop as a number of people cancel the Sport component, but I am not convinced the majority will cancel Sky altogether.

By then we will have a solid broadband offer as well as mobile. And who knows what else.

Hanging onto rugby until 2025 was a good move though to keep everything as steady as can be while we transition to streaming. If we lost rugby now, everyone would lose their minds and the SP would be even lower than it has been as the market would be convinced that Sky cannot exist without NZR.

Disagree - NZ RUGBY rights is Sky's most crucial asset, especially since they lost NZ cricket. Without NZ Rugby, sky would lose critical mass of customers, and quickly become unprofitable. The number of subscribers that are going to pay for sky sport at $40 a month without NZ rugby and NZ cricket is in the single digit percentage of current sky sport subscribers. And when those people cancel sky sport, they also likely cancel their sky satellite subscription altogether. We are talking about hundreds of thousands of subscriber cancellations here.

What's more, Sky is still in the best position to retain sport rights due to the fact they have bundle economics - all sky subscribers are effectively helping sky pay for Rigby rights, even if they aren't subscribed to sky sport. No one else in New Zealand has that advantage. NZ Rugby however is crucial to retaining that bundle economics advantage. The biggest threat I think comes form a joint Spark/TVNZ bid in a similar style to the World Cup broadcast arrangement - eg: TVNZ gets one live game a week, while Spark streams all games online with both outlets showing the finals.

[mistaTea]

Disagree - NZ RUGBY rights is Sky's most crucial asset, especially since they lost NZ cricket. Without NZ Rugby, sky would lose critical mass of customers, and quickly become unprofitable. The number of subscribers that are going to pay for sky sport at $40 a month without NZ rugby and NZ cricket is in the single digit percentage of current sky sport subscribers. And when those people cancel sky sport, they also likely cancel their sky satellite subscription altogether. We are talking about hundreds of thousands of subscriber cancellations here.

What's more, Sky is still in the best position to retain sport rights due to the fact they have bundle economics - all sky subscribers are effectively helping sky pay for Rigby rights, even if they aren't subscribed to sky sport. No one else in New Zealand has that advantage. NZ Rugby however is crucial to retaining that bundle economics advantage. The biggest threat I think comes form a joint Spark/TVNZ bid in a similar style to the World Cup broadcast arrangement - eg: TVNZ gets one live game a week, while Spark streams all games online with both outlets showing the finals.

Also important to remember - this is 5 years away, and a lot can happen in 5 years. It is not even certain that Spark Sport will still be around.

I agree that rugby is important content. It provides great content for about 10 months of the year.

And despite Ogg's assertion that rugby is just for young people 'with no money'... the majority of rugby fans are males over 40 with disposable income.

I don't agree with the doom and gloom scenarios whereby a loss of rugby leads to a mass exodus. I could be wrong on that, but in a scenario like this it is fair to say that Sky Sport monthly subscription costs would drop from ~$30/month to $15-$20/month most likely. Provided they still have enough other good content across football, league, tennis, cyccling, boxing, super cars etc...I think they can hold onto more customers than people give credit for.

I am a rugby fan myself (neither 'young' nor 'broke' as Ogg would assert) and would much prefer Sky hang onto the rights when they come up for negotiation in 5 years time. I believe the contract is set in such a way that we get first rights of exclusive negotiation...and only if we don't land an agreement by a certain date can the rights go out to the wider market.

So, depending on how things are in the world in 5 years time...it is still possible that Sky could lock the rights up again. I am just not sure that it is probable from where we are sitting here in 2021.

And, no mater how wonderful a piece of content is..nothing is worth an infinite price. Ultimately, we have to pay a price that makes sense (and allows us to make a living).

[Ogg]

Disagree - NZ RUGBY rights is Sky's most crucial asset, especially since they lost NZ cricket. Without NZ Rugby, sky would lose critical mass of customers, and quickly become unprofitable. The number of subscribers that are going to pay for sky sport at $40 a month without NZ rugby and NZ cricket is in the single digit percentage of current sky sport subscribers. And when those people cancel sky sport, they also likely cancel their sky satellite subscription altogether. We are talking about hundreds of thousands of subscriber cancellations here.

What's more, Sky is still in the best position to retain sport rights due to the fact they have bundle economics - all sky subscribers are effectively helping sky pay for Rigby rights, even if they aren't subscribed to sky sport. No one else in New Zealand has that advantage. NZ Rugby however is crucial to retaining that bundle economics advantage. The biggest threat I think comes form a joint Spark/TVNZ bid in a similar style to the World Cup broadcast arrangement - eg: TVNZ gets one live game a week, while Spark streams all games online with both outlets showing the finals.

Rugby is dead:

https://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/basket...ketball-surges

[Ogg]

Imagine investing half a billion dollars for a 15% stake in a dying sport

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This is where it's at!