SKT Sky Network Television Limited.

[Ogg]

I assume who ever has been buying on market is now close to 5%, given that this has been going on for weeks now.

Waiting for that last huge block purchase, maybe they will buy out Kiltearn or Blackcrane, thus pushing them from 4.9% to 10% without disclousing to market. If another bidder comes along they will be holding more than 10% and will either get paid out nicely or make life difficult.

You read it (the conspiracy) here first.

[Ogg]

What's clear to me is that

A) Sky has started advertising Broadband on TV.
B) Orcon and Slingshot barely advertise anymore.
C) If you don't own a mobile network or power station, you need another product to bundle broadband with.
D) If you own your own TV station, you can spam your own TV ads all day (Prime TV).

[Ogg]

E) if you buy a company that has no debt, you can do a LBO
F) You can flog anything off on the NZX these days.

[Ogg]

If you think about it USD $150m is enough to buy Sky.

That's about NZD $200m.

The local banks will put up another $200m in a syndicate (ie 50% leverage).

That's a 23c bid.

(mistaTea will rage at that tho) but...

Kiltearn are selling today, Blackcrane will be in profit, ACC will probably take it and move on. There are a couple of other funds sitting on 12c average after the placement too.

Unless Discovery comes in and bids it up higher!

(the above is all speculation)

[mistaTea]

You read it (the conspiracy) here first.

Don’t even think of jumping in on my Vocus angle at the last minute and claiming it as your own after all your bs over the last 18 months!

[mistaTea]

If you think about it USD $150m is enough to buy Sky.

That's about NZD $200m.

The local banks will put up another $200m in a syndicate (ie 50% leverage).

That's a 23c bid.

(mistaTea will rage at that tho) but...

Kiltearn are selling today, Blackcrane will be in profit, ACC will probably take it and move on. There are a couple of other funds sitting on 12c average after the placement too.

Unless Discovery comes in and bids it up higher!

(the above is all speculation)

You keep forgetting the fundamentals of business.

You just keep yelling out numbers that are higher than what you paid and hope someone offers it even if it is divorced from the underlying earning power of the business.

You don’t care if you get ripped off so long as it still represents a gain.

That is not how these deals are able to be done.

And I have explained why.

[Ogg]

You keep forgetting the fundamentals of business.

You just keep yelling out numbers that are higher than what you paid and hope someone offers it even if it is divorced from the underlying earning power of the business.

You don’t care if you get ripped off so long as it still represents a gain.

That is not how these deals are able to be done.

And I have explained why.

Things are changing quick here bro.

AT&T are now selling their media division. So this whole idea of telcos owning media companies is in question. That's why the Vodafone/Sky didn't happen and why Infratil passed on it.

I may be spewing out numbers, but so are you, in the hope it gets higher than 30c.



What ever happens, a takeover or merger has to happen soon!

The price will be decided, if and only if, another bidder comes out. Ie it's like a $1 Trademe reserve. Just have list the thing and hope and pray there's a bidding war 1min before it closes.

[mistaTea]

Things are changing quick here bro.

AT&T are now selling their media division. So this whole idea of telcos owning media companies is in question. That's why the Vodafone/Sky didn't happen and why Infratil passed on it.

I may be spewing out numbers, but so are you, in the hope it gets higher than 30c.



What ever happens, a takeover or merger has to happen soon!

The price will be decided, if and only if, another bidder comes out. Ie it's like a $1 Trademe reserve. Just have list the thing and hope and pray there's a bidding war 1min before it closes.

More noise Ogg.

My thoughts on price being north of 35c is not based on some wishful thinking that just happens to be above my average buy in price.

It is based on various multiples of GAAP and non-GAAP earnings plus reasoning around how the business is likely to continue to perform in the future. I actually think any deal needs to value sky above 40c.

I like you mate and you are great entertainment, but please do not categorise our investment philosophy as being in anyway way similar!

[Ogg]

The best thing that can happen now is that MIRA comes out and makes a bid of 23c. With the idea to merge it with Vocus NZ.

Then hopefully Discovery NZ and or NBC comes out and makes a bid, thus pushing up the price.

If MIRA gets 10%, it could make things interesting. They may hold out and the price could go higher, like when Fox and Comcast were bidding on Sky UK, as Fox had a huge position in Sky UK, ie the price just goes higher when there's a big holder holding out etc.

The opening bid doesn't matter.

[Ogg]

It is based on various multiples of GAAP and non-GAAP earnings

Bro, no one cares about GAAP anymore, it's all about dat Tesla and bitcoin valuation



Even Infratil have cotton on to this.

The reality is, MIRA have a decent shot of making some coin out of this by flipping it with Vocus NZ and Discovery could use the 1m customers. That it! No one is sitting down and working out the GAAP!