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  1. #9831
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    We had the first monthly uptrend in over 6 years confirm earlier this year, however it had no follow through. We have now had this monthly uptrend re-confirm on increasing bull volume. Monthly uptrend confirmations after very prolonged downtrends are in my view one of the most significant technical setups around. They signify the end of a long downtrend and are almost always accompanied by a large sentiment shift (meaning the market goes from undervaluing a stock to overvaluing it). Large and rapid moves are regularly observed. It does however carry significant risk of failure given the significant downtrends in place, so one must balance downside risk vs upside potential. The type of trades where you're looking to making half your yearly profit target on or loose a decent chunk...

    19.2 resistance broke yesterday. Psychological resistance will likely be seen at 20c. After that there would be 30% upside to the next resistance at 26c.

    In my opinion if a takeover is actually seriously on the cards then we will see it happen imminently. Time is of the essence to ensure the price doesn't start running away to the upside. Note: I am not suggesting we will see a takeover happen soon.

    Disc: very large position (long term + trading)

  2. #9832
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    A fund manager creeps over 5% after buying from at least last April and speculation abounds

    At least all this speculation will keep you guys amused / occupied for a few months …maybe even until Christmas
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  3. #9833
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    A fund manager creeps over 5% after buying from at least last April and speculation abounds

    At least all this speculation will keep you guys amused / occupied for a few months …maybe even until Christmas
    Must say though that CEO buying 830,000 shares with her own cash is noteworthy. Great to see!

  4. #9834
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Mike Hoskings on SKY would be a hit

    And I wish the media would use a different photo of Sophie ….the one they use is so yuck
    He’s probably advising them, seems to know everything about everything, even if it changes on a regular basis.

  5. #9835
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    Just a cool 7mil shares offmarket trade at 10:36am

  6. #9836
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ogg View Post
    Snippet from Macquarie research (fair use applies)





    "interest above this level" likely implies at least $50m.

    With the cash on hand it's likely they will have close to $100m by the AGM.

    Will they buy back or just dish this out as a special dividend?

    I still think that the property sale is tied to some sort of corporate deal or activity.

    Colliers still haven't promoted studio 1 for sale, which is weird. Either they have a buyer and or deal lined up and are just ironing out the details.
    From the colliers AD

    "“However, the location also offers exciting potential to explore alternative uses. Astute developers will consider the property’s possibilities for future mixed-use activities. Subject to rezoning, these could include residential projects or other alternatives such as retirement or education facilities."


    Could be unrelated, but OCA on the 23/08 announced they were considering a secured bond offer.........


    SKY TV : "Colliers New Zealand will now complete a targeted Expression of Interest

    Campaign with potential purchasers which will close at 4pm on Monday 23
    August 2021"



    Then on the 30th OCA announced a $100m bond issue

    The proposed bond issue will:

    - Help facilitate further growth, including the current pipeline and potential acquisition of new development sits (brownfield and/or greenfield)

    Coincidence?
    Last edited by jimdog31; 02-09-2021 at 10:58 AM.

  7. #9837
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    The NZD30m valuation for the properties appears alot higher than the book value of NZD13M contained in the recent FY reports.

  8. #9838
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    Quote Originally Posted by jimdog31 View Post
    Could be unrelated, but OCA on the 23/08 announced they were considering a secured bond offer.........


    SKY TV : "Colliers New Zealand will now complete a targeted Expression of Interest

    Campaign with potential purchasers which will close at 4pm on Monday 23
    August 2021"


    Then on the 30th OCA announced a $100m bond issue

    The proposed bond issue will:

    - Help facilitate further growth, including the current pipeline and potential acquisiton of new development sits (brownfield and/or greenfield)

    Coincidence?
    $100M! We’ll take it!

    I do think the campus will sell for way above book value. Over double book value.

  9. #9839
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ogg View Post
    It's possible a S&P has already been signed conditional on finance.

    What else would you put on that side besides a Rest Home.

    Excellent conspiracy theory, well played.
    I would be really shocked if it was not converted into a retirement village. Prime real estate for it. Huge site.

    And having sky stick around for a little while producing rent for them is an added bonus while they cement their plans.

    Not saying OCA are def buying the property - but it is not loony tunes to think they could be either.

  10. #9840
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    Quote Originally Posted by mistaTea View Post
    I would be really shocked if it was not converted into a retirement village. Prime real estate for it. Huge site.

    And having sky stick around for a little while producing rent for them is an added bonus while they cement their plans.

    Not saying OCA are def buying the property - but it is not loony tunes to think they could be either.
    The timing of the announcements via both companies is Gas on the fire.

    If I am wrong, its a pretty amazing coincidence!
    Last edited by jimdog31; 02-09-2021 at 11:06 AM.

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