SILVER v USD

[JBmurc]

TOCOM

Ladies and Gentlemen:
On September 29th the seven big gold shorts reduced their net short position by 563 contracts to 16,816 contracts which is a new low combined net short position for them since I began recording this data in February 2006.

STDJ reduced their gold net short position by 28 contracts to 6,939 contracts.

http://www.tocom.or.jp/souba/gold/torikumi.html

In silver they reduced their net short position by 14.50 contracts to 82.50 contracts (60kg deliverable equivalent). This is another new low combined silver net short position going back almost a year.

http://www.tocom.or.jp/souba/silver/torikumi.html

Best wishes,
Scott

GOLDMAN SACHS GOES NET LONG GOLD ON TOCOM

In the September 29 session on the TOCOM Goldman Sachs COVERED 13 short contracts and bought 495 long contracts to bring their long position to 2,525 contracts AND AS A RESULT MAKING THEM NET LONG 28 CONTRACTS!!! The largest net short position they held was 52,000 contracts in March of 2006.

Below it is shown graphically. The declining net short position has been going on for 30 months and I have predicted for some time that GS would eventually be net long just before the gold price explodes. Well here we are! John Reade of UBS poked fun at me for this analysis saying that GATA doesn’t know what an arbitrage position is. Well, Mr. Reade I do know, and this sure as hell isn’t one! This chart documents perfectly the demise of the gold Cartel. It should be noted that in July Goldman Sachs advised its clients to sell gold as they said gold was going to $740/oz. Their price prediction turned out to be accurate, however, they did not sell gold from their own account during that time; they covered their shorts with the aid of charitable donations from the clients’ who followed their advice!



Here is the estimated liquidated value of the GS TOCOM gold position. I no longer have to extrapolate this as their net short position has now been eliminated. GS has lost approximately 185 MM$ on their TOCOM position since I started tracking the data in January 2006. One has to wonder why a company as smart as GS would tolerate being in an increasingly losing position for so long. I think we know the answer. The suppression of the gold price facilitated orders of magnitude larger profits to be made in other markets.



Now that Goldman Sachs has finally come on to the GATA side of the market we can expect a gold price explosion.

For a long time many in our camp wondered if the Cartel was so smart they could continue their manipulation for ever. We have seen in the last few weeks that some of the key players have stepped on their own land mines. The laws of economics can be frustrated but not repealed.

[JBmurc]

well trying to find some phys silver atm is become a joke ever week there another week delay add on what does this tell you about the so called sell off of hard commondites
if you want a large buy order like 100kilos only $63,000 worth of silver I was told on the ph before round- Feb 09 so
Now I've been buying silver bullion for awhile now and it wasn't that long ago it was a 2week wait for 1kg bars this is an e-mail I just recieved from the NZmint...

Understandably, the current delivery times are not ideal.

1kg Silver bars are the largest we trade at this point in time. Depending on how many kilos you’re after; you are looking at around 8-10 weeks for delivery.

Kind regards

Ok so what happen if silver spikes back over $20 which it will soon will delivery time's go out to 6-7-12months wait???? As buyer rush to exit the paper currencys -It's not if but when IMHO

[JBmurc]

"New exchange traded commodities for ASX
ETF Securities provides metal offerings

By Darin Tyson-Chan
Fri 21 Nov 2008
Investors will soon have four new ETCs to invest in on the ASX.

ETF Securities is set to launch four new exchange traded commodities (ETCs) onto the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX), offering investors access to particular metals for the first time.

The new ETCs that will be available to investors from December 2008 are the ETFS Physical Platinum, ETFS Physical Palladium, ETFS Physical Silver, and the ETFS Physical PM Basket, which comprises an allocation of each metal as well as gold.

ETF Securities has also acquired 100 per cent of the existing ASX listed gold ETC.

"What is unique about the products is they are actually backed by physical, allocated bullion," ETF Securities representative Hector McNeil said.

"It means... it is not a credit risk against another organisation... it is your metal held in a vault and we actually publish every bar number on our website," he said.

Buying one unit in an ETC will translate into owning one tenth of an ounce of gold, platinum or palladium, or an ounce of silver depending on which commodity the investor selects.

Based on this allocation the investor can, if he or she owns sufficient units, physically redeem their metal if so desired.

"By holding the physical metal you actually become a feature of the demand story in that commodity," McNeill said.

Investing in ETCs can also enhance the diversification of an investment portfolio, as these commodities are negatively correlated to bonds and equities, according to McNeill.

All of the ETCs are open-ended and there are no entry or exit fees charged on any of them.

"The gold itself costs 40 basis points to invest in on an annual basis... and the platinum, palladium, and silver will cost 50 basis points, with the basket being a blend of fees," McNeill said.

[arco]

Thanks JBM - that sounds like a very interesting way to hold the precious metals..........................

Just looking up details of the ECM/ECF operation worldwide and found this.

About Us - ETF Securities Ltd is an issuer of Exchange Traded Products. In 2003, the management of ETF Securities listed the world's first ETC. Building on its success ETF Securities created the world's first entire ETC platform which was listed on the London Stock Exchange in September 2006. Since then, ETF Securities has listed its ETCs on Europe's major exchanges (Frankfurt, Paris, Amsterdam and Italy) with each exchange creating a separate ETC segment.

Partners

ETF Securities has worked with the following organisations to develop ETCs:

HSBC N.A. - HSBC is one of the world's leading custodians for precious metals and is the world's leading custodian for precious metal ETCs.

World Gold Council - The World Gold Council is an organisation formed and funded by the world's leading gold mining companies with the aim of stimulating and maximising the demand for, and holding of, gold by consumers, investors, industry, and the official sector.

Royal Dutch Shell - The Royal Dutch/Shell Group is a global group of energy and petrochemicals companies, operating in more than 140 countries and territories.

American International Group, Inc. (AIG) - American International Group, Inc. (AIG) is the leading international insurance organisation with operations in more than 130 countries and jurisdictions. In addition, AIG companies are leading providers of retirement services, financial services and asset management around the world. AIG's common stock is listed in the U.S. on the New York Stock Exchange as well as the stock exchanges in London, Paris, Switzerland and Tokyo.


History

2003 Listed world's first gold ETC. 2005 Listed world's first oil ETC. 2006 Listed world's first entire ETC platform. 2007 Listed world's first physical metal ETC platform. 2007 Listed world's first Forward ETC platform, providing investors the ability to invest along the commodity futures curve. 2008 Listed world's first Short and Leveraged ETC platform. 2008 Announced world's first Shariah compliant precious metal ETC platform. Listed on 5 major European Exchanges: London Stock Exchange, Deutsche Börse, Euronext Paris and Amsterdam, Borsa Italiana. Completes acquisition of Gold Bullion Securities products on London and Australian Stock Exchanges. Listed the world's first Carbon ETC. Listed Europe's first platform of 13 commodity themed sector ETFs.

Awards

Awarded 'Most Innovative ETF 2005 - OILB' as voted by the readers of www.exchangetradedfunds.com

Awarded 'Most Innovative Product 2006 & 2007' as voted by the editors of Investors Chronicle (UK)

Awarded 'Most Innovative ETF Hybrid Product Award for Europe 2006' & 2007' as voted by the readers of www.exchangetradedfunds.com


Management

Graham Tuckwell - Chairman

Graham Tuckwell is the founder and chairman of the ETF Securities group of companies. He is also the founder and chairman of Gold Bullion Securities Limited in Jersey and Australia, which companies obtained the world's first listings of a commodity on a stock exchange. Previously, Graham was the founder and managing director of Investor Resources Limited, a boutique corporate advisory firm, which specialised in providing financial, technical and strategic advice to the resources industry. Prior to establishing Gold Bullion Securities Limited and Investor Resources Limited, he was Head of Mining Asia/Pacific at Salomon Brothers, Group Executive Director at Normandy Mining responsible for Strategy and Acquisitions and Head of Mergers and Acquisitions at Credit Suisse First Boston in Australia. Graham holds a Bachelor of Economics (Honours) and a Bachelor of Laws degree from the Australian National University. Nik Bienkowski - Chief Operating Officer

Nik Bienkowski helped Graham Tuckwell found ETF Securities. Nik joined Graham Tuckwell in 2002 when they established Gold Bullion Securities, the world's first gold ETC. Nik had previously been involved with marketing and research but now covers product development, listings and Exchange relations and index licensing. Previously, Nik spent almost five years at a number of departmental start-ups including the Canadian office for Macquarie Bank's mining team and Towers Perrin's global custody consulting team. Nik holds the CFA and B.A./B.Comm (Honours Finance) degrees from Melbourne University. Hector McNeil - Head of Sales and Marketing

Hector McNeil is responsible for sales and marketing for the ETF Securities group of companies. Hector started his career at the London Stock Exchange after completing his studies at the University of Hull. Hector left the LSE to study full time for an MBA at Warwick Business School. He then had a short stint at BZW before moving to Morgan Stanley for five years. From Morgan Stanley, Hector moved to become Chief Operating Officer at Jiway, the Exchange joint venture between Morgan Stanley and OM Gruppen. After Jiway, Hector spent time at Nomura, and then was Head of Business Development at Susquehanna International Securities, setting up a highly successful market making and liquidity provision business which included ETF, stock future and equity market making. Greg Burgess, Chief Financial Officer

Greg Burgess is one of the founders of the ETF Securities group of companies. Currently the Group's Chief Financial Officer, Greg has and continues to serve the Group in various capacities including Director and Company Secretary of several group companies. Greg is also a director of Gold Bullion Securities Limited in Australia. Previously, Greg was the Finance Director of Investor Resources Limited, a boutique corporate advisory firm, which specialised in providing financial, technical and strategic advice to the resources industry. Prior to joining IRL, Greg was the Chief Financial Officer of Wizard Information Services and has previously held senior positions within the Australian Department of Finance and at Normandy Mining Limited. Mr. Burgess is a qualified accountant with over 25 years experience and is a Fellow of the Certified Practicing Accountants in Australia. Nicholas Brooks, Head of Research and Investment Strategy

Nicholas is responsible for research and investment strategy for the ETF Securities group of companies. Prior to joining ETF Securities, Nicholas was senior economist and market strategist on Henderson Global Investors economics, strategy and asset allocation team based in London. Before that he worked at Deutsche Bank where he was senior economist on the bank's top ranked Global Markets team. He has also held senior research roles at HSBC (Hong Kong) and Peregrine Securities (Hong Kong and Singapore). He started his career at Citibank in New York. Nicholas has a B.A. from Brown University, M.A. from Columbia University and an MSc in Economics (with Distinction) from the University of London. Executives

Marketing and PR
Helen Burden
Tessa Prendergast
Nicolas Rajner

Research
Mandy (Chingmin) Chiu
Edith Southammakosane
Benoit Autier
Nicholas Brooks
Daniel Wills

Sales
Stefan Garcia
Nigel Phelan
Socheat Chhay
Tim Harvey
Peter Saunders
Massimo Siano
William Rhind
Michael Geister
Neil Jamieson
Emil Petersen
Nigel Longley
Rachel Kersey-Brown
Patrick Witteveen
Sameer Meralli

Legal and Operations
Danny Laidler
Charles Carvell

http://www.etfsecurities.com/en/other/etfs_aboutus.asp

[arco]

Sept 16 2008

U.S. to Take Over AIG in $85 Billion Bailout; Central Banks Inject Cash as Credit Dries Up


The U.S. government seized control of American International Group Inc. -- one of the world's biggest insurers -- in an $85 billion deal that signaled the intensity of its concerns about the danger a collapse could pose to the financial system.
The step marks a dramatic turnabout for the federal government, which had been strongly resisting overtures from AIG for an emergency loan or some intervention that would prevent the insurer from falling into bankruptcy. Just last weekend, the government essentially pulled the plug on Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., allowing the big investment bank to go under instead of giving it financial support. This time, the government decided AIG truly was too big to fail.
Associated PressBusinessmen leave an American International Group office building Tuesday in New York.



The U.S. negotiators drove a hard bargain. Under terms hammered out Tuesday night, the Fed will lend up to $85 billion to AIG, and the U.S. government will effectively get a 79.9% equity stake in the insurer in the form of warrants called equity participation notes. The two-year loan will carry an interest rate of Libor plus 8.5 percentage points. (Libor, the London interbank offered rate, is a common short-term lending benchmark.)
The loan is secured by AIG's assets, including its profitable insurance businesses, giving the Fed some protection even if markets continue to sink. And if AIG rebounds, taxpayers could reap a big profit through the government's equity stake.
"This loan will facilitate a process under which AIG will sell certain of its businesses in an orderly manner, with the least possible disruption to the overall economy," the Fed said in a statement.
It puts the government in control of a private insurer -- a historic development, particularly considering that AIG isn't directly regulated by the federal government. The Fed took the highly unusual step using legal authority granted in the Federal Reserve Act, which allows it to lend to nonbanks under "unusual and exigent" circumstances, something it invoked when Bear Stearns Cos. was rescued in March.
As part of the deal, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson insisted that AIG's chief executive, Robert Willumstad, step aside. Mr. Paulson personally told Mr. Willumstad the news in a phone call on Tuesday, according to a person familiar with the call.
Mr. Willumstad will be succeeded by Edward Liddy, the former head of insurer Allstate Corp.
AIG's bailout caps a tumultuous 10 days that have remade the American financial system. In that time, the government has engineered rescues that insert it deep into the housing and insurance industries, while Wall Street has watched two of its last four big independent brokerage firms exit the scene.
The U.S. on Sept. 6 took over mortgage-lending giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac as they teetered near collapse. This Sunday, the U.S. refused to bail out Wall Street pillar Lehman Brothers, which filed for bankruptcy-court protection and is now being sold off in pieces. That same day, another struggling Wall Street titan, Merrill Lynch & Co., agreed to sell itself to Bank of America Corp.
View Slideshow






The AIG deal followed a day of high drama in Washington. The Treasury's Mr. Paulson and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke convened in the early evening an unexpected meeting of top congressional leaders. Late in the trading day Tuesday, anticipation that the government might assist the insurer helped propel the Dow Jones Industrial Average to a 1.3% gain.
In bailing out AIG, the Federal Reserve appeared to be motivated in part by worries that Wall Street's financial crisis could begin to spill over into seemingly safe investments held by small investors, such as money-market funds that invest in AIG debt.
Indeed, on Tuesday the $62 billion Primary Fund from the Reserve, a New York money-market firm, said it "broke the buck" -- that is, its net asset value fell below the $1-a-share level that funds like this must maintain. Breaking the buck is an extremely rare occurrence. The fund was pinched by investments in bonds issued by now collapsing Lehman Brothers.
Money-market funds are supposed to be among the safest investments available. No fund in the $3.6 trillion money-market industry has lost money since 1994, when Orange County, Calif., went bankrupt. A number of money-market funds own securities issued by AIG. The firm is also a big insurer of some money-market instruments.
Credit Downgrade

AIG's financial crisis intensified Monday night when its credit rating was downgraded, forcing it to post $14.5 billion in collateral. The insurer has far more than that in assets that it could sell, but it could not get the cash quickly enough to satisfy the collateral demands. That explains the interest in obtaining a bridge loan to carry it through. AIG's board approved the rescue Tuesday night.
AIG's board said in a statement that the deal would "protect all AIG policyholders, address rating agency concerns and give AIG the time necessary to conduct asset sales on an orderly basis."
The final decision to help AIG came Tuesday as the federal government concluded it would be "catastrophic" to allow the insurer to fail, according to a person familiar with the matter. Over the weekend, federal officials had tried to get the private sector to pony up some funds. But when that effort failed, Fed Chairman Bernanke, New York Fed President Timothy Geithner and Treasury Secretary Paulson concluded that federal assistance was needed to avert an AIG bankruptcy, which they feared could have disastrous repercussions.
Staff from the Federal Reserve and Treasury worked on the plan through Monday night. President George W. Bush was briefed on the rescue Tuesday afternoon during a meeting of the President's Working Group on Financial Markets.
That the government would prop up AIG financially offers a stark indication of the breadth of the insurer's role in the global economy. If it were to have trouble meeting its obligations, the potential domino effect could reach around the world.
For one thing, banks and mutual funds are major holders of AIG's debt and could take a hit if the insurer were to default. In addition, AIG was a major seller of "credit-default swaps," essentially insurance against default on assets tied to corporate debt and mortgage securities. Weakness at AIG could force financial institutions in the U.S., Europe and Asia that bought these swaps to take write-downs or losses.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122156561931242905.html

[JBmurc]

The Road to Roota IX
By Bix Weir

When the music stops….WHO’S GOT THE SILVER?



I'm hearing a lot of speculation in the silver world about a possible run on the COMEX inventories and I want to share my thoughts on this possibility. I too believe that we are in the midst of a run on silver BUT I do not believe it will be visible until the default is already done and gone. Religiously following the COMEX inventory withdrawals or delivery notices is NOT where the default truth will be revealed....NOT A CHANCE!

Hopefully, we all know by now that the COMEX/NYMEX is corrupt to the core and the CFTC facilitates the market manipulation by running a fake oversight operation. That has been fully analyzed, discussed and proven by many in the silver manipulation camp… but what about the actual physical silver those warehouses claim to possess? How do we know that the "Authorized COMEX Warehouses" are holding any metal at all?

Let's first take a look at the COMEX Approved Warehouses and try to see who's side they may be on....

There are 4 authorized depositories for COMEX silver and they are the Delaware Depository, Brinks, Scotia Mocatta and HSBC.

1) Delaware Depository - Currently holds 9% of COMEX silver inventory and is owned by FideliTrade which from their website "comprises the former precious metals investor service operations of Wilmington Trust Company, Citibank, Bank of America, Bank of Delaware and Sunshine Mining Company". Although not a big holder of metal, the fact that the Delaware Depository is registered as a Delaware Corporation could give great tax shelters to corporations holding silver there. This is all well and good but the only time I see Bank of America’s name in the silver world is when they are delivering large chunks of physical silver on the COMEX (for example on 11/28/08 they were called to deliver 2,000 contracts or 10,000,000 oz!) Is it a coincidence that 10M oz equates to almost all of the silver in "their" warehouse? Maybe, maybe not but clearly a large, physical silver, long position was called for delivery and Bank of America was named as the counter party (short) to deliver.

2) Brinks - Currently holds 7% of COMEX silver inventory. At quick glance, Brinks is a legitimate security company without much history of cabal banking ties. I have no reason to assume that Brinks would have any motivation to lie about the amount of physical silver they hold in their warehouse. If I had to hold my physical silver in a COMEX warehouse (which I don't) I would choose Brinks if only for their lack of banking ties.

So I am not too worried about the first two COMEX warehouses and although the B of A connection doesn't sit too well with me, the amount of silver held in the Delaware warehouse is not enough to shake the foundations of silver manipulation. Together these warehouses only claim to hold 16% of the COMEX cache of physical silver. So far so good.

Now let's look at the 2 major COMEX warehouses:

3) Scotia Mocatta - Currently claims to hold 29.6M oz or 23% of COMEX silver in inventory. Scotia Mocatta has long been suspected as a MAJOR manipulator by silver analyst Ted Butler (Fighting Back) and for me Ted Butler's work is proof enough that Scotia is one of the "bad guys" in silver....So why should we believe them when they say they hold almost 30M oz of silver in a warehouse that nobody is allowed to audit except them? And while we’re on that issue, has anyone noticed that the Scotia Mocatta silver depository is located at the JFK Airport? How much of that silver is there or needs to be flown in/out to satisfy the global silver market manipulation machine? How much of that silver, so conveniently located next to the Virgin Airlines cargo loading, is pledged to the silver ETF that JP Morgan is the custodian for in the UK? Why should we believe Scotia Mocatta about anything? I don't.

4) HSBC - Currently claims to hold 78M oz or 61% of COMEX silver in inventory. HSBC holds the mother load of physical silver at the COMEX approved warehouses. HSBC! Where do I start with these guys?! Just run a Google search on “HSBC Conspiracy” and you can start to connect the dots. Or you go to the best source IN THE WORLD for the history of gold/silver market manipulation....LemetropoleCafe.com! I ran a search in the Cafe search function of "HSBC" and found HUNDREDS of entries where HSBC was either involved in blatant manipulation, suspected of manipulation and even had employees ADMITTING manipulation going all the way back to 10/10/2000. Are we supposed to believe that HSBC is not lying when they report silver inventories of 78M oz in THEIR warehouse? If you believe in silver market manipulation you need to understand that the operation is global in scope and includes EVERYONE in the silver metal complex that could influence the operation. If you believe that HSBC is in on the manipulation operation you must seriously question their honesty in silver warehouse reporting.

Hopefully, after understanding how these facilities are connected to the banking cabal, you will look at the COMEX warehouse reporting with the proper amount of skepticism as the run on silver progresses.

As for the SLV inventory, once you read the Prospectus you can easily see that this ETF is nothing more than a market rigging mechanism by the banking cabal. This truth was made even more clear when iShares CHANGED the original Prospectus to REMOVE the word “bullion” from all references to silver. From that point on silver “held” in the silver ETF could be almost anything including certificates, pooled accounts, COMEX contracts, 90% silver, 50% silver, 0.001% silver….it stopped mattering.

And what’s that mysterious connection between JP Morgan controlling the SLV inventories at the same time they are MASSIVELY shorting COMEX silver (as exposed by Ted Butler (Real Story) to manipulate the price down? Did the CFTC justify the silver short manipulation by claiming JPM had access to the physical metal because they are the custodian for SLV so they could naked short to their heart’s content? Just because they have custodial responsibilities for a large amount of physical silver does not give them the legal right to manipulate the price of silver.

Who ultimately owns all that silver? SLV shareholders or the “Authorized Participants” who also have “pooled accounts”, metal loans, leases, swaps, etc.? As I exposed in my Road to Roota III article, there is a very blurry line between the COMEX silver inventories and the SLV inventories. David Kass of the CFTC should have never answered my emails and exposed this grey area (…since then Commissioner Bart Chilton has blocked all my emails!). It is my contention that not only is there a tremendous amount of double counting in those “un-auditable” inventories, but I highly suspect that there are multiple owners for EVERY bar that is controlled by the bullion banks. The regulatory agencies are well aware of these practices and the Morgan Stanley Silver Fraud shows just how prevalent this practice is.

Your average silver investor can have no idea how much physical silver is available with the 2 largest publicly reported holdings (the Delaware Depository and iShares Silver) being controlled and inventoried by the 2 largest banking cabal manipulators, JP Morgan and HSBC! So how much physical silver do YOU think is actually available for sale? My guess is a lot less than meets the eye!

Pile all this information on top of the fact that GOVERNMENT MINTS around the world have stopped the production of silver coins (which happens to be illegal in the US), the price of silver being cut in half by JP Morgan in a matter of months and a SERIOUS shortage of physical silver around the world and you’ve got yourself one genuine global silver market rigging conspiracy!

[peat]

instant valuation of silver coins....


http://www.australian-threepence.com...oin-values.htm

[peat]

this is a possible count

the (iii) of 3 even breaks into 5

the dashed lines going down are possible wave 5's and are drawn to equal = wave 1 (which isnt necessarily a given) and if the first (projection) happened from somewhere around here would suggest $6.3.

note that a 261% extension of wave 1 = about $6.8 (brown)

also note that a %261 extension of wave 2 (blue) did coincide with wave 3 termination approximately

[ananda77]

this is a possible count

the (iii) of 3 even breaks into 5

the dashed lines going down are possible wave 5's and are drawn to equal = wave 1 (which isnt necessarily a given) and if the first (projection) happened from somewhere around here would suggest $6.3.

note that a 261% extension of wave 1 = about $6.8 (brown)

also note that a %261 extension of wave 2 (blue) did coincide with wave 3 termination approximately

Hi peat:

...this continued technical bearishness in gold and silver together with the behavior of the treasury bond market paints quite a depressing picture perfect for a continued free fall price spiral despite extraordinary efforts by the Fed to prevent depression; still quite averse to hold US treasuries long, but logical to go that way in case depression digs deeper

Kind Regards

[JBmurc]

good to see the silver:gold ratio finally starting to go back in silvers favour at 76 still pretty crazy when their's at the most 7 times more silver in-ground than gold
also good to see silver gain as the USD gained will really jump when the USD starts to fall Gold holding it's ground looking ready to attack the 900 range once the weak USD finally starts to get down to it's true value