SILVER v USD

[arco]

Peat

How do the prices compare to the spot rate?

rgds - arco

[peat]

prices for silver oz coins are tending to the NZ$30 or more currently on trademe. even allowing for possible collectability or aesthetic value of the coins tis a heck of a premium above the spot rate, and even ingots are priced at those levels per oz too.

as i said not well - there are some offers of prices a bit closer eg 24$ oz for a few k worth , thats probably more the way to go.

but are'nt they purty

USA


Mexican

[peat]

10kg of silver here - thats 352.74 oz's for $6900 so thats NZ 19.50 an oz
closest I've seen to spot prices...
using current US spot price and current NZD rate - silver is NZD18.11 at the mo.


http://www.trademe.co.nz/Browse/List...x?id=120257847

auction closing very soon no bids tho.

[arco]

HI Peat

Not sure what the current fabrication cost is, but that size bar can be bought from Auckland Bullion traders at spot + fabrication.

rgds - arco

[Alec]

Hi Peat,

That 10 kg on TM @ $6900nz would have been $21.46nz / oz which represent an 18.5 % markup over spot

That price of $19.50nz is calculated in avoirdupois not troy oz (3 gm diff / oz) - spot price is in troy.

That markup is higher than the buy spread from the local NZ bullion dealers for 1kg ingots. Trading spread in NZ has always been aggressive for physical.

You and other investors here are probably already aware, and from my experience with trading silver is, you have to fully understand the fundamentals. Don’t be driven by greed or wanting to make quick bucks.

Physical is a long term investment if you want to make the low risk BIG gains.
Day trading futures / shorts / leverage = mega high risk / high stress but also can have good returns.

Shorting on comex is price manipulation and it will end – this will involve traders not being able to cover.

Silver has the highest concentrated short position – double of any other commodity and the CFTC and NYMEX continue to evade this. Net short position are at a near-record 208,000 contracts that’s 20.8 million oz of non existent silver.

Silver is the only bulk tradable commodity that is also a rarity and has strategic industrial importance. Basically as of now, there is more physical gold available that silver above ground. “but what about the slow down in use for photography ? .etc” people ask – silver is being used in greater amounts for electronics than ever before.

Personally for me, I believe just buying precision made, well known 1 oz bullion products, e.g. Silver maples/ Eagles / Onza’s and 1 oz ingots represent the easiest and lowest risk option at a very small ongoing outlay – this will not effect your other day trading affairs that you want to participate in. It is a longer term investment and 1 oz items are far easier to sell when the price does “equalize” - The higher the price = more demand = easier to sell.

1 oz items always carry the highest premium that is why they are always well above spot.
When you compare to gold (e.g. on Ebay) you will always see thousands of 1 oz gold items but not 1kg gold ingots. That will be the same with silver.

Quoted by Ted Butler, "Manipulation has created what I believe is the investment opportunity of a lifetime." ; "There is a simple and understandable way to participate, namely, buy real silver. There are no sophisticated strategies, critical timing decisions, high risk leverage or luck. It’s just common sense. Buy silver before the manipulation ends”

[peat]

yes its an interesting theory that of silver 'manipulation'. I'm not averse to building a holding over time...have bought a couple more oz's and will continue to buy more esp if there is any noticeable dip. The coins really do have an aesthetic value as well which means they seem a better buy when priced the same as the ingots. But I could just be kidding myself on that.
Theres seems to be healthy supplies of the silver fern NZ bullion coin on the market just above the $25/coin level tho.Eagles onza's and the phoenix coin seem to command a premium over the NZ product. But at the bullion level they all contain the same ASW (actual silver weight).

Its actually sparked the germ of an interest in nuismatics as well, and I've bought a few other actual currency coins - mainly silver content ones ;+)

On that theme I requested and received some freely available material from the RBNZ and they've sent me :
a book on NZ currency (available here in PDF) http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/currency/mon...g_currency.pdf

and a poster graphing the Kiwi over 20 years since the float,
and a poster of the current notes and coins. School project stuff haha but its interesting.

[Alec]

Another safe option for buying silver at very low spread is through the Perth mint with their certificate program. Minimum investment $5000AUS. Easy to sell or part sell or convert to physical if you want. I hold some of these for my personal investment – buying / selling is just a phone call away.

If you buy silver ferns – go direct to the N Z Mint, price breaks are good the more you purchase – (will be the cheapest in NZ for 1 oz items in bulk)

I run a website, nzsilver.com in my spare time / as a hobby – my prices are higher, I import all from the US – I do deals on larger amounts but singles and lots of 10 always command a higher premium. It’s fun and pays for itself and any extra I just put back into more stock.

I did try some buying / and selling on Barclays EFT / SLV trust. You really need direct access to it + and a US bank account.

I am a self confessed silver bug and made the decision to do the silver thing a while back when silver was below 6 US an oz. I started with PM certs, it was probably the best investment I made at the time and basically ended up with many Kg’s of free silver. I believe it’s a no loose scenario. Like Butler and Co say “it’s the investment opportunity of a life time.” And it really is – I’m not sure if silver will go to 8000 as Jason H suggests but I’m convinced it will reach the mid hundreds in the not to distant future. It is a market that can be cornered so easily and the higher the price goes the more people will want in as it will be seen as more of an investment class asset – this is when it will really take off - bad luck for anyone holding futures as manipulation will end fast - no more roll over’s - it will be time to deliver. Many of my fellow investors think I’m crazy but I’m sure I will get the last laugh.

One thing for sure … The US dollar is doomed

[peat]

http://www.nzsilver.com provided the link to an interesting report on silver demand and production

http://www.silverinstitute.org/publi...s/wss07sum.pdf

interesting read thx Alec

[Alec]

Hi folks, I hope everyone has had a great week. I have.

Silver and gold have had strong support this week, Silver at $14.26, Gold the highest in 25 years, The US dollar having “big issues” down to 77 on the index, its basically becoming junk. An analyst on Bloomberg was saying that the USD is no longer the reserve currency !!!.

I believe we may see some profit taking of commodities before Christmas, but this will only strengthen the foundation for the next move. It will be a good time to buy. It all depends on what happens to US interest rates over the next week or so.

I was amazed to read Ted Butlers latest commentary entitled “Money for nothing”. http://www.investmentrarities.com/10-23-07.html
It talked about a class-action case related to Morgan Stanley’s (MS) precious metal storage policy and cost. How can MS charge storage fees when there is no physical metal ? It looks to only be on paper. As talked about, MS is not the only financial institution doing this. Compounded, we are talking a short position of over a billion oz’s of investors money tied up in ‘paper’ silver. What happens when silver levels to the correct and true price, Investors will want their money or delivery of the silver, what will these institution like MS do ?. One things for sure, it will not effect me as I have physical stored away in bank vault. The Long positions on comex will not even cover 10% of these shorts – that can only mean one thing – silver WILL go up. And we are talking 100’s of dollars probably more. This will be the ruin of many a financial institution.

The only real great thing about the silver manipulation that is happening is that it gives you the great opportunity to purchase silver at super discounted rates.

And on another note, I always hear people whining about bullion coins being a few dollars more that spot price etc. All you have to do is buy a few coins every month for the next couple of years, put them away – give or take 5 to 10 year these coins will worth a great deal more than you purchased them for, so paying any where between $24 to $30 NZD a oz is a bargain (Silver @ 13.8 to 14.5 USD an oz). Imported products such as Eagles and Maples will always carry a higher premium that NZ products. When it comes for the time to sell, Eagles and Maples also very easy to sell on the international market as they are a precision made well known item.

You are probably thinking – “who is this crazy guy, talking about silver like that ?”, I’m just going on my followings of the market news and research I have made over the last few years. The more you read, the more knowledge you will gain about Silver and its fundamentals. Some good links here at http://www.nzsilver.com/links.html

With the US dollar sliding down the index, You even got to look at the NZ currency devaluing over the last couple of decades – I was flipping a new 10c coin in the air at my desk the other day, it got me thinking 20 to 30 years back a 1 cent coin would buy what a 10 cent coin buys today. I always go on the aniseed ball theory, I use to get 3 for a cent in the 70’s. Now I can only get 2 for 10 cents ?. All they have done is taken a 1 cent coin and added an extra 0 and called it a ten but the crazy thing is it doesn’t even have the buying power of my 1 cent from the 70’s !! , so if trends continue, the 10 cent coin of today, 30 year down the track will have the buying power of 1 dollar and with the aniseed ball theory, I will only get 1 AB !!! boohoo. Silver will not be 14USD an oz either. - Just something to think about.

Peat thanks for the info on the RBNZ, I have also requested the material from them for my eldest – he has a big interest.

Ciao for now,
Alec
www.nzsilver.com

[peat]

Silver has now touched over $US16 tho retraced a bit today

I'm thinking that the metals breakout from an 18th month consolidation has now confirmed itself and tho of course it may test again this is proof that in the medium run silver will see $20 or more. You can see how I arrive at that figure




This is what I think when I look at the silverchart anyhow.
Kinda like the breakout I mentioned with the Ozzie back in the low 80's.


One for the Trends thread DA. Those Saxobank predictions were well true. One to keep an eye on.