VTL - Vital Telecommunications (formerly Team Talk)

[Baa_Baa]

Prescient W69, thanks for this heads up yesterday.

Shouldn't overlook that the Book Value of TTK is just 91 cents (and most of that is intangibles but that not all bad)

Equity of $26m and debt of say $34m means invested capital is $60m

From an economic value added perspective TTK needs to have operating earnings (tax paid EBIT) of about $9m just to cover its cost of capital. FY14 was just under $6m (normalised) and that was one of their better years. Teamtalk with its current capital structure is not covering its cost of capital, in fact substantially short. It has negative economic profit

A current share price of 115 implies the NPV of the future economic value added is about $6.5m - ie the market is expecting TTK to make more than $10m EBIT and more for the foreseeable future.

Believe that and 115 or a bit more is a fair share price. Have your doubts about such an sustained increase in profits and TTK is 'fairly' valued at less than 91 cents (its book value)

Just one way that analysts look at it

[Baa_Baa]

Sad really wasn't it, exceptionally poor effort and the journo didn't even climb into him. Poor chap's arse is only just just starting to get kicked I'd say. About time Mr Sowry said something, pronto! imho. Need to restore confidence, $0.90 and 21% off again today.

What was he going on about toward the end, something about power costs...I just got the feeling WTF ?????
Also talk of good trading for the first few weeks of 2015 felt to me like "Oh My God I have to say something positive"..the SP is in freefall and I don't want my neck on the chopping block....Just calling it as I "read" the tea leaves. I feel sorry for investors. How do you have confidence in a man like that after what's been said, the way its been said and him voting with his feet by selling a fair percentage of his stock late last year ?

[BIRMANBOY]

Just because he's right... once ....doesn't mean you can elect him President So what does tomorrow hold for us oh presidential premonition provider?

Prescient W69, thanks for this heads up yesterday.

[okay]

I agree okay. His explanation, if you can call it that was quite frankly, pathetic. What was he going on about toward the end, something about power costs...I just got the feeling WTF ????? He went on to say it would be explained in more detail in the half year report, which I took to interpret as blatant attempt to dodge the question and a simple attempt to buy himself more time to come up with a more plausible explanation in due course.
Also talk of good trading for the first few weeks of 2015 felt to me like "Oh My God I have to say something positive"..the SP is in freefall and I don't want my neck on the chopping block....Just calling it as I "read" the tea leaves. I feel sorry for investors. How do you have confidence in a man like that after what's been said, the way its been said and him voting with his feet by selling a fair percentage of his stock late last year ? I don't think talk of costs "biting a company on the arse" is appropriate language for a formal press release. A good CEO ???????

Roger, can't help but feel that his arse bitten comment will be a hard one to shake off lol

[Beagle]

Just because he's right... once ....doesn't mean you can elect him President So what does tomorrow hold for us oh presidential premonition provider?

His analysis looks pretty sound to me...a bit rough to ask him to predict the outcome of trading for one day tomorrow IMO.
Okay - Yep, I can see it being a memorable statement along the lines of "I apologise for being a man"

[The Grinch]

21.7% down another big slide...

What will the price be three weeks from now on opening day w/c 16th Feb?

My Bet: 71c

Reasoning... Gutometer of what I would need to risk my neck on this one

basic logic:

- Admitted that trading conditions are tough and seem very unsure of what future profitability looks like.
- If we can assume that the revised dividend is going to continue for the foreseeable future (and has been pointed out there is potential for them to cut further/remove in the short term)
then the risk adjusted return would have to be at least in the double digits (before imputation) so lets say 12%. 12% return at a 8c divi is 66c. Lets put it in a pretty range and say
63-70c.

Just a guestimate and hopefully I'm way out and it doesn't come close/has already bottomed.

Anyone else game enough to look into the crystal ball?

[noodles]

His analysis looks pretty sound to me...a bit rough to ask him to predict the outcome of trading for one day tomorrow IMO.
Okay - Yep, I can see it being a memorable statement along the lines of "I apologise for being a man"

Or "poison chalice "

[bunter]

21.7% down another big slide...

What will the price be three weeks from now on opening day w/c 16th Feb?

My Bet: 71c
the risk adjusted return would have to be at least in the double digits (before imputation) so lets say 12%. 12% return at a 8c divi is 66c. Lets put it in a pretty range and say
63-70c.
Anyone else game enough to look into the crystal ball?

Firstly, paying an unrealistic return to attract investors is characteristic of a certain type of investment scheme.

Secondly, re dividends:

There may be few or no imputation credits attached to this dividend - no profit, no tax,

So if it's a 12% NET dividend you're looking for and there are no IC attached - the SP would need to be , let's see, 8c - less 30% tax = 5.6 c / 12% = 48c.

But wait, there's less.

The bank might well complain about this 4c dividend (which is only a forecast BTW - not an announcement.)
There will be no money for the proposed second 4c dividend, if the second half performance isn't significantly better than the first.

[samdaman]

21.7% down another big slide...

What will the price be three weeks from now on opening day w/c 16th Feb?

My Bet: 71c

Reasoning... Gutometer of what I would need to risk my neck on this one

basic logic:

- Admitted that trading conditions are tough and seem very unsure of what future profitability looks like.
- If we can assume that the revised dividend is going to continue for the foreseeable future (and has been pointed out there is potential for them to cut further/remove in the short term)
then the risk adjusted return would have to be at least in the double digits (before imputation) so lets say 12%. 12% return at a 8c divi is 66c. Lets put it in a pretty range and say
63-70c.

Just a guestimate and hopefully I'm way out and it doesn't come close/has already bottomed.

Anyone else game enough to look into the crystal ball?

I had a quick look back in post #347

[winner69]

Mr Ware up at Vic today asking if he could change the title of his PhD thesis ...he thinks Great Expectations isn't really appropriate