IchiMoku Magic

[arco]

Hello Peat

Now you are right into the Ichi charting why not post a few trade ideas either here on this thread, (or on the standard threads if you prefer).

Its always good to see what others are looking at.

regards - arco

[peat]

yeh will have a lot more time from 1 more hour away !!

I was long NZD and short AUD/NZD from a couple of days ago in demo (as in the AUD/NZD thread ) but these got hammered with overnite volatility , tho potentially still good trades

Ratehr exotically I was looking at Eur/Czk last nite too thinking it had formed some sort of bottom , and was going to be on the lookout for an upward confirmation , but NOPE , last night was the biggest fall all year!

Am wondering if USD is topping and getting a good short again following your 'could anything be more clear' long term USD post.

General themes are sterling strength and yen weakness but how much further can these go. I believe theres some sort of tankan figure out soon/now.

Finish work in an hour yay!

[peat]

Using the Ichimoku on the weekly scale looking at this year the Eur/USD has been a buy since Week 10 (early March ) where the close was 1.2069. But hindsight being such a wonderful thing that signal technically capitulated in Week 43 (Oct) when it closed at 1.2753 , up 140 for the week (which may have made you ignore that signal), and ironically just when the real action was starting for the year.
That weekly signal buy signal returned a mere 4 weeks later, having missed a few hundred pips on the path north and that is where we are now supposedly having exited at 1.27 ish and then being instructed to buy again somewhere over 1.30 and then watching it correct back to where it is now at mid 1.30's.
So you could be sitting on a break even trade as of now tho having been postive at some stage.
In the weekly the tenkan hasnt crossed back over downwards , so we should be holding , but perhaps its unnerving to see that the daily has indeed crossed. While cloud support is rising on the weekly it is still as low as 1.25.

[arco]

Hi Peat

Any way you can make those charts smaller please?

Heres a chart which shows a few different forecasting techniques when using Ichimoku



Here we see that the price has recently crossed back up through the cloud. The lagging line bounced off the base of the cloud. From here the lagging line will break back above the cloud or fall through a relatively short resistance level that is left. For the latter scenario we would need to fall below 1,100 points on the S&P now or not be above 1,200 by the end of this year. We are currently at the 1,195 level. If we do break out of the cloud by the end of 2005 then a new cloud cross will have formed creating a new blue cloud to be crossed some years out. Crosses down through Red clouds are extremely rare.

regards - arco

[roddy]

Hi Peat/Arco
just having a go at analysis of kiwi please
correct me if i am wrong!!!!!!!!
Chart shows Daily NZ/USD,it would appear that
after the cross of the Tenken/Kujun on about
17/7 and subsequent push through the Kumo cloud,
that Kiwi was a buy on the daily,in saying that i
am not sure whether i would be prepared to let
250 pips go to stay in the trade as in early September,
not knowing at the time whether Tenkun was going to
drop below Kujun,so technically for medium term
holders who entered the trade then until now it
is still a hold based on the Ichimoku and would
of gained 800 pips

cheers roddy

[peat]

and would still be a hold on that basis too Roddy... notwithstanding the last three days dire red candles , with cloud support kicking in right about now , or, does the crossing of the chikou span portend more worries. Note that chikou hasnt worked reliably in the recent past....




which makes one wonder how useful Ichi is perhaps....
I suppose Ichi will never predict the turnaround points as it is merely a lagging indicator however it should be useful at confirming them.
But RSI had been heavily overbought for days.... and while it often does this it nearly always comes back from being above the 70 mark eventually. MACD wasnt confirming the new highs either...

[peat]

Interesting situation on Eur now with the price having found some support at the cloud (using daily)

We have (or almost have , depending on the parameters) an ichimoku crossover above the cloud tho.
With the ichi setting at 7,22,44 as is the default for Oanda tenkan-sen has already crossed through kijun-sen above the cloud , and chikou span has crossed through and is now on the underside of the price 22 days ago.

Using the default settings with MarketMaker's ichimoku 9,26,52 tho it is still to make the signal.
What do you think Arco, have we had a short signal from the Ichimoku or not? I know your preference has been long so is this about to change - or would you take a bigger perspective and use weekly charts?

[arco]

Hi Peat

No short signal yet on Metastock Ichi (daily or weekly).

A medium term BF has just completed, but there is still
a longer term one that could complete higher up.

regards - arco

[peat]

definitely not a short last night lol
I'm curious as to what parameters its using then.

[arco]

Hi Peat

I'm using MS default - 9,26,52

Not sure of the longer term validity of BFs,
but 1.42+ is the early target area. (Not banking
on that, but keeping it in mind).

regards - arco