TRA - Turners Automotive Group [previously TNR - Turners Limited]

[Rawz]

I was talking to a mate in the asset finance industry yesterday about this coming downturn or whatever and we agreed at the end of the day, machinery, trucks, cars etc. They all breakdown eventually and need replacing. It's science

[BlackPeter]

I am sure that the Turners vehicle will traverse a variety of road conditions over the next few years but I have confidence in the driver and crew to avoid the big potholes & large wild animals and keep the machine running.

Amen to that.

I think however that this observation and expectation (which I do share) does not necessarily answer the question whether now and at current SP it is a good investment ... but hey, at current this is true for many good companies;

[BlackPeter]

I was talking to a mate in the asset finance industry yesterday about this coming downturn or whatever and we agreed at the end of the day, machinery, trucks, cars etc. They all breakdown eventually and need replacing. It's science

Absolutely.

However - if people replace their cars only say once every 4 years instead of once every two years, than this is only half the number of tickets to clip.

We are driving both of our cars now already for something like 8 to 10 years (one bought used, one bought new) and both of them are well maintained, safe, economical and run well. At this stage I don't see it as a good or opportune time to replace any of them. Might wait until the premium for e-vehicles and hybrids drops, and I think both have still another at least 8 to 10 years of life in them.

Admittedly - I never used a finance company before to buy a car (or anything else) and I don't intend to change that either.

If others follow this example than people will keep more money in their pockets but the business for companies like Turners might shrink quite independently from the need of cars and machinery needing at some stage replacement.

[percy]

NZ motor vehicle fleet does not get any younger year on year,so plenty of natural organic growth for the sector.
As TRA are the leading NZ used vehicle dealer they should out perform others in the sector.
With a current PE of 8.89 and paying fully imputated quarterly dividends [currently 5.85%] their ratios appear modest to me.

[pierre]

In an article published in August last year it was reported that the number of registered dealers in New Zealand could dip below 3000 for the year and that people are hanging on to their cars for longer.

TRA is expanding - not retrenching - and have car-only dealerships in 19 locations. There is plenty of opportunity for them to continue to expand and grow sales volumes and finance and insurance revenue even in a contracting market.

Like Snow Leopard, I have confidence in the company leadership to navigate the twists and turns on the road ahead.

Used car prices could stay 'elevated' for three years | Stuff.co.nz

[winner69]

With the immigration tap turned back on and up to 75,000 a year next plenty of new customers for Turners

[Rawz]

TRA have a NPAT constant avg growth rate of:

10 year CAGR of 26%
5 year CAGR of 6%
3 year CAGR of 14%

Not sure what to make of that lol

[Rawz]

TRA have a NPAT constant avg growth rate of:

10 year CAGR of 26%
5 year CAGR of 6%
3 year CAGR of 14%

Not sure what to make of that lol

I figured it out... hold for 10 years

[mike2020]

I bought a car off Turners and they made a loss on it, it needed a bit of work before they could sell it. I said that's not great business is it and the reply was maybe one in 10,000 times that might happen. But in the process of looking I learnt quite a bit. I am surprised they are only making 1500 per unit sold because there must a be a fair few they make much more and the auction fee is quite a tax. I had a valuation out of interest on a car I was looking to trade in and I could see them selling similar/same car for 4 or 5k more. I have watched their auctions quite a bit and they turn over loads of presumably ex lease rangers and other commercial vehicles for very close to a dealership price.
I would be happy to buy off them again. The staff are great and seem to know their stuff plus they don't try to hide any obvious defects. For a bigger purchase I would always get the vehicle checked out elsewhere though.

[Ricky-bobby]

Very bullish/confident outlook. Everything is very much under control and their destination is strongly in their hands. Not many other nzx companies talking like this…. That’s why these guys are my biggest holding. Keep up the great work!