TRA - Turners Automotive Group [previously TNR - Turners Limited]

[percy]

Cheers. Interesting ... might be worthwhile to find out how they calculated this 2015 EPS. Is this based on the numbers of DPC, TNR, a balanced mix out of both - and how did they allow for the share consolidation?

Maybe NZSA may find the answers for you.?

[Beagle]

Full year 2018 their NPBT was $31.1 mil.
Projected 2019 NPBT is expected to be between $34mil and $36mil.ie either 9.3% or 15.7% increase.[from investors presentation; outlook]
Until we know the exact number of shares there are on issue,after the bonds convert, we can not work out what the projected eps will be.

Be careful that last year's EPS will be on weighted average number of shares on issue. I have crunched the numbers already based on assumed 50% bond conversion to shares, (which worked out to be spot on) and got 4.5% forecast EPS growth for FY19 using the mid point of the company forecast for FY19. The terms of the latest bond issue suggest the directors might finally have got it that profit growth is meaningless to shareholders unless its reflected in EPS growth. 4.5% annual EPS growth if maintained in future years means that by 2021 all going well, we will be back up to 2015 EPS of 33 cps, (unless there's a terrible recession in 2020 like some people reckon).

[percy]

Makes the agm outlook statement even more important.
In my discussions with Turners management, I have found they are fully aware of the importance of eps growth [and dividend growth],rather than just revenue growth.
I prefer to look past the figures, and see the real strength and quality of the business has been greatly improved over the past four years or so.In fact I would have to say they are extremely "well positioned."

[blackcap]

At least someone bought a truckload at $2.80 today.

[sb9]

Makes the agm outlook statement even more important.
In my discussions with Turners management, I have found they are fully aware of the importance of eps growth [and dividend growth],rather than just revenue growth.
I prefer to look past the figures, and see the real strength and quality of the business has been greatly improved over the past four years or so.In fact I would have to say they are extremely "well positioned."

And with Todd being a member here, am sure he'll drop in every once in a while to check us shareholders concerns.

[winner69]

Cheers. Interesting ... might be worthwhile to find out how they calculated this 2015 EPS. Is this based on the numbers of DPC, TNR, a balanced mix out of both - and how did they allow for the share consolidation?

Edit ... so, yes I checked - Turners 2015 report claims 3.28 cent / share as earnings. After share consolidation is this nearly 33 cents.

Still not clear what happened with the DPC financials and shares ...

apples - pineapples?

They’re the Dorchester Accounts with Turners folded into them from when they ‘effectively’ took over Turners

Its the Turners old accounts that have been kicked into account

[Beagle]

At least someone bought a truckload at $2.80 today.

Good to see some significant volume going through today and price at end of day holding. Maybe the long term 280 support floor will hold ?

[Snoopy]

Just curious - where are the claimed 2015 EPS coming from? The company didn't exist at that time, i.e. you need to calculate it based on its parents financials. If you take DPC and TUA's adjusted EPS for 2015, than (according to Snoopies legendary post #1416: https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showth...l=1#post668006)

the FY2015 EPS was 20.2 cents.

Snoopy can't err - can he? And if we take his data, than the EPS growth since 2015 was roughly 9 % ...

Yes I can make mistakes. Fortunately in most instances there are enough smart people on this forum to find them and I try to correct my mistakes when these are pointed out. I usually record the correction in the 'Last edit' line at the bottom of each post when someone else points it out. If I find my own mistake myself (sometimes something as trivial as a spelling mistake) , I normally fix it 'on the sly' without a comment, even though the 'last edit' time stamp records my tampering.

I have put considerable time into retrospective 'eps' analysis for Turners. One area where I always differ from the figures the company quotes is that when calculating 'earnings per share', I always use the number of shares on issue at the end of the financial year. Often the company uses the 'weighted average number of shares on issue during the year'. The company calculating 'eps' like this will result in a higher 'eps' value than I would calculate. However, for various reasons I have previously discussed, I don't consider this to be a 'mistake', although I accept that some might disagree.

As far as the 'NPAT component' goes of 'eps' for FY2015, I refer readers to my 'legendary' ;-P post 1398.

The main potential 'error' here is that I have taken the old Turners Auctions earnings based on 234 days of trading and annualised that out into 365 days of trading. If the EBIT earnings rate per day on the 234 days of TUA equity ownership, was different to the 131 days after TUA was fully absorbed, then my estimate of annual EBIT contribution from what was the old TUA will be wrong. Realistically it almost certainly is wrong. However, because of the mismatch in the year end balance date of the old TUA and DPC, I don't think it is possible to calculate what the accurate figure is. I stand by my figure as a 'best guess' that I have no reason to believe is 'too far wrong'.

At any rate, all the above is dwarfed by the adjustment I made stripping $7.098m from my EBT profit estimate for FY2015. $7.098m represents the increase in the 19.85% strategic TUA stake that Dorchester already owned before they gobbled up the rest of the TUA shares. The $7.098m EBT profit was real. But it was 'self created' by Dorchester offering a premium takeover price to other shareholders, which in the process increased the value of the TUA shares they already held. It certainly was not operational profit, and it was certainly a 'one off'. I believe that I was correct to remove it for comparison purposes.

Yet another change I made was to standardise the tax rate at 28% across the years I was looking at. This is not 'correct' because it includes the periods where Dorchester was using up their own tax losses from previous years. However, for the purpose of comparing operational performance across different periods I feel this was the right thing to do.

Putting all this together for FY2015:

eps = NPAT / (No. Shares on issue)

$12.722m / 63.077m = 20.2cps

While Turners published 33cps NPAT figure for FY2015 is undoubtedly in compliance with the income tax act(s), I do not consider it representative of operational performance, for the many reasons outlined in this post

SNOOPY

[Beagle]

Good work mate.
Thanks to my fellow beagle we now know on a normalised basis Turners really is growing EPS. Must be a BUY at the current price then !

[BlackPeter]

cheers Snoopy,

great stuff and thanks for explaining it to us none-bean-counters in a language we can fathom. And yes, I think this all makes sense.

Urgently need to spread some reputation to be able to acknowledge this post!