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20-08-2018, 10:49 AM
#2691
Originally Posted by causecelebre
Try TradingView. NZ equities data is slightly delayed, 10-15 minutes but should be good enough for what you are looking for?
Volume bars at bottom. VWAP Blue line running through the candles. Note VWAP only computes for intraday periods
Attachment 9861
Thanks...will take a look later in the day.
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20-08-2018, 11:07 AM
#2692
Originally Posted by winner69
Using daily WVAPs doesn't necessary equal the real WVAP over the period (calculated by using every single transaction) but it probably would be pretty close
(Thats how a guru explained it to me once)
I had a really good go at this on the weekend. The paucity of volume on most days means one must place a lot of emphasis on the days when there is somewhat reasonable volume. I am happy with my work and arrived at a conversion price of $2.945 based on data to date. Happy to be corrected if someone can get access to actual VWAP data since 1 July.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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20-08-2018, 12:27 PM
#2693
Originally Posted by winner69
Volume weighted price based on daily totals from July 1st is $3.09
But thats not WVAP as one needs every single transaction to calculate that
Less 5% gives $2.9355. Split the difference with you. Its presently somewhere round $2.94 for the bond conversion I reckon.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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20-08-2018, 12:52 PM
#2694
Originally Posted by Beagle
Less 5% gives $2.9355. Split the difference with you. Its presently somewhere round $2.94 for the bond conversion I reckon.
Yep forgot about the 5%
Jeez that last divie is down the gurgler big time eh.
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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20-08-2018, 02:55 PM
#2695
Turners new bonds indicative 5.5% pa bloody good value compared to Z’s miserly 4.0% pa ..but then Turners seen as heaps more risky
But then the way Orr is carrying on 4% might be seen as the the bargain of the century
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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21-08-2018, 08:48 AM
#2696
Bond conversion price would have dropped a tad more yesterday
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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21-08-2018, 08:53 AM
#2697
Originally Posted by winner69
Bond conversion price would have dropped a tad more yesterday
I guess. But volume was pretty light when I last looked. That will minimise the drop.
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21-08-2018, 08:57 AM
#2698
Originally Posted by winner69
Bond conversion price would have dropped a tad more yesterday
You mean bondholders selling slightly above the conversion price is something like a vicious circle? You might be right, but other than a circle it will have an end - and rather soon ;
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"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)
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21-08-2018, 09:07 AM
#2699
I wonder what is best for the SP of the company ?
All bondholders to convert ?
All bondholders not to convert ?
Or maybe it’s neutral given the new bond offer which wii be possibly taken up by existing bondholders who do not convert ?
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21-08-2018, 09:32 AM
#2700
Originally Posted by RTM
I wonder what is best for the SP of the company ?
All bondholders to convert ?
All bondholders not to convert ?
Or maybe it’s neutral given the new bond offer which wii be possibly taken up by existing bondholders who do not convert ?
I guess the question is - is it better for them to have more equity or more loans on the balance sheet? Any conversion will reduce their leverage, which is good if you feel that they carry currently too much debt. Obviously - it means as well dilution, which is not necessarily good for existing share holders.
If the new bond pays 5.5%, than a low conversion rate would be good for shareholders if the company makes in average more than 5.5%, which they do. I.e. following this argument a low conversion rate would be good for existing share holders and the share price.
On the other hand could a low conversion rate point to limited investors confidence in the share price of the company (otherwise - why would you not convert) - I.e. a high conversion rate would point to high confidence, which again is likely to push the share price up.
No matter what it is - it might be seen as a win-win as well as a lose-lose .
In reality I think the conversion rate will be somewhere in the middle ... and it should be all good.
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"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)
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